SGNE.OB

[David Randolph]

Today we got very bullish action on AVLN.OB, with price and volume rising in tandem. The stock rose 9% today, but I'm still losing 3.5% on this position. It's wrong to let a profit turn into a loss, but it is a good thing to let a loss turn into a profit 

AVLN.OB will face some resistance at the $0.14-$0.15 level, I hope the higher oil prices will encourage bulls to take this micro cap oil related stock up, up and away.

[aitech61]

The potential for this company is why one holds... The stock historically trades up through the fall and winter. My bet is this will be a very good fall and winter for pps appreciation.

This blurb is from one of the Pr's over the last several months. I like the reference to $28 billion reserve potential when the price is at $7. Today it is pushing $9. Now that is potential...... Makes 13 cents seem ridiculous. The o/s is around 32 million shares, maybe a little more at this point. This could appreciate quite quickly this fall.... Like I have said before I dont mind this stock staying below the radar for a little longer.

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Management Identifies Three Drill Targets in Uinta Basin
Monday April 25, 7:00 am ET

Avalon announces that the Company's Management, Robert Klein and Robert Milam, will be meeting with several independent oil and gas professionals on April 26th and 27th in Utah. The purpose of the meeting is to review certain proprietary seismic data pertaining to the prospect and to confirm the initial three (3) drill targets for permitting purposes. In addition, a drilling budget report will be prepared based on the technical data and information from the experts.

Carlton Parfitt emphasizes, "With natural gas selling at today's price of approximately $7.00 USD per cubic feet of gas (CFG), the value of the potential 4.2 TCF of recoverable gas is extremely positive, approximately $28 billion USD! It is very exciting to know that several of the major oil and gas companies who also own leases in the area are planning to drill this summer which shows that they share our enthusiasm."

[aitech61]

Nice volume again today with positive cashflow. Definite uptrend in the making. Looking for confirmation. Lets see that 13dma blast through the 50dma. Lets make the trend our friend.  We are getting so close to a break out. Honestly I think it is as good as a done deal, but in the markets you can never be certain. If it decides to consolidate here I plan to go back to accumulation mode. We see a major push through .15 cents I am adding huge. IMHO we are on the verge of some major price appreciation. I am keeping dry powder ready. 

We shall see!!!!!

Along with some major earnings potential, I am sure the following had something to do with it...WOW!!!!

Wednesday, August 10, 2005: NYMEX Natural Gas Futures for September delivery closed up $0.422 at  $9.071 per MMBTU

[airv]

Based on the TA of AVLN's 3 month chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avln.ob&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m100%2Cm50%2Cm20%2Cm200&a=m26-12-9%2Cr14%2Cvm%2Cfs&c=

the stochastic is staying above the 50 level and the MACD has a buy signal.  The 20MA is getting ready to penetrate the 50 (a mini golden cross I think they call it).  I am bidding tomorrow .135 to open my position and hopefully catch it before the breakout.  Will need to be flexible though. 

I agree, aitech61, to increase position following a close above .15.  AVLN's weekly chart looks great too.  The ADX has begun to open up:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=avln,uu[w,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G

Thanks for the pick.  Looking forward to Avalon rising above the Mists!

David: I appreciate hearing you tell about holding a loss and watching it turn into a profit.  I'm currently in two situations with PHOX and IBTGF (though it hammered yesterday).  Got to give them ample room to wiggle and just enough time to gain momentum, as long as their chart still says "BUY". 

[aitech61]

Nice day with super volume and price appreciation... Oil & Natural Gas continue to rise. The obvious will see consolidation in time but the fall and winter seasons are still to come. AVLN does tremendous over these timeframes. I wont even speculate on the growth potential of this holding, except that I think it will be good!!   

Congrats to all in the stock!!!

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your posts aitech61 and airv 

I'm not a big fan of seasonals of that kind aitech61, and I wouldn't buy the stock just because the fall and winter is coming.

AVLN.OB made a major breakout of the $0.14 level, so now those long days without volume spent at the $0.11 support are being compensated.

The next resistance I have comes only around $0.29 on the long term chart, so I expect AVLN.OB to continue to rise, after some normal correction and consolidation.

[aitech61]

Stock re-acting as expected. Nice consolidation taking place before its next leg up. Several are patiently accumulating. The stock is slowly getting into range of the radar. I like this stock for a number of reasons, undervalued shareprice, low o/s, Uinta Basin reserves, and the fall and winter seasons coming up because historically natural gas has nice price appreciation for increased demands over the colder months.

The normal dips that occur in August I dont see happening this year because of one the hottest summers on record in the U.S.. 20% of our electricity is generated using natural gas.

Friday, August 12, 2005: NYMEX Natural Gas Futures for September delivery closed up $0.287 at $9.588 per MMBTU... Incredible..

I remain bullish on natural gas and oil going forward. There is  no catalyst in sight that will hold it down. If anything there are a number geo political events that could send prices much much higher...

We shall see!!!!!

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your post aitech61, I agree with you.

AVLN.OB issued a Form 10-QSB saying the following:  «AVALON ENERGY CORPORATION is requesting this extension because we are waiting for supporting documents in order to complete the June 30, 2005 quarterly numbers. Final information from the financial statements is required for the completion of certain portions of the report 10-QSB.»

Late filing, nothing serious.

As aitech61 wrote, the stock is reacting well to a retest of the prior resistance, now support levels.

I have a 20% open profit on this micro cap oil and gas related stock, the only thing to do is to let the profits run.

[David Randolph]

I had 4 micro cap oil sector plays: AMEP.OB, AVLN.OB, TIDE.OB and SKPI.OB. I sold the losers (AMEP.OB and TIDE.OB) and I still hold the winners (AVLN.OB and SKPI.OB).

That's the proper way to trade. I think in the end my strategy on these oil micro caps will pay out handsomely. We'll see, the jury is still out on that.

AVLN.OB made a nice come back today to close at $0.17 again. This time the lower shadow is bigger and support was effectively touched, so I expect some bullish continuation for the next days.

[David Randolph]

AVLN.OB made a nice come back today to close at $0.17 again. This time the lower shadow is bigger and support was effectively touched, so I expect some bullish continuation for the next days.

Didn't happened. The candle was strong on paper but had lack of volume. Today AVLN closed again at the prior resistance, now support level of $0.155. Volume was a bit higher today.

I'll continue to hold the stock.

[aitech61]

Natural Gas had a down day after running up the last several days.....

Wednesday, August 17, 2005: NYMEX Natural Gas Futures for September delivery closed down $0.361 at  $9.391 per MMBTU. 

Still well over $9, which I believe is incredible. All my natural gas holdings are now in consolidation mode after nice run ups.... Quite normal and healthy. I believe the next several months will be very good to the Natural Gas sector.

After labor day we will have to see if oil takes a slight dip. Historically it does. I do NOT see this happening to Natural Gas.

I am holding and plan too for quite some time, unless the fundamentals in the sector break down, which I dont see happening. As for AVLN all I need to say is Uinta Basin and now at current NG prices over 36 billion dollars in NG reserves... AVLN entered into these leases in early 2005. The leases themselves are quite valuable. Companies are bending over backwards trying to attain real estate with reserves. This stock has all the potential to run and in a big way. Last reported o/s was just 32 million.   

It could get quite exciting!

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your encouraging post aitech61, it's hard to keep up the mood when one has a stock that goes down 4% with just 181,600 shares traded.

What an uninspiring start to these updates, AVLN.OB ... but, what you see is what you get, it doesn't matter how much a stock is down or boring you'll always read a daily update on that stock until it's actually sold.

I'm not selling AVLN.OB yet, but I sure feel like it. Really like to respect RULE 4: Never Let a Profit turn into a Loss. I hope the stock rebounds tomorrow, holding for the next session, though.

[aitech61]

It seems AVLN is trading right along with natural gas which took a hit again today... Doesn't concern me after the hefty runup... To me today the stock declined on low volume, which to me is positive. Volume drying up on the downside. The volume was high on the upside.

The stock touched near the 13dma today. I have a 50dma of .126 and plan to hold until it reaches that level. Then I will make my call. Right now with my positive outlook on the stock will probably add to my position expecting a bounce. It is quite possible it never touches that level.

I think this stock has alot more upside over the next several weeks. One may require patience.

We shall see!!!!!

[phabrux]

Dave,

now than AVLN is so close to the Support line 0.14,  you would have so little to loose to keep and watch it landing very gently on the 0.14 support line.
Here is my suggestion: you keep this stock while it stays above that mental line 0.14, and if the expectation of a strong rebound in the next few days or weeks is still intact in the reading of the chart, something like the one we saw at the end of July.

Looking at the chart in July, AVLN kissed the support line 0.11 almost every day for around 2 weeks, this happy love story between AVLN and the support line ended in the sky with a 72% gain and big volume!  0.11  ---> 0.19
If this happen again, 0.141 --> 0.19  we get a 37,75% gain, that still pays off your work and patience! 

Actually, I don't have any share yet, to me it is the right time to jump in at the level of 0.141 only if you consider the support line strong enough to hold there! In the affirmative, I couldn't find a better entry, for an astonishing Reward to Risk ratio of 24,5.
Do you share that view?


Here is my finding about the Reward to Risk ratio topic for AVLN.OB,

with for:  entry: 0.141$,  stop:  0.139$,  target: 0.19$

Reward to Risk Ratio:  (0.19 - 0.141) / ( 0.141 - 0.139 ) = 49/2 = 24,5

Reward/Risk Ratio of 24.5 ---------->Gain: 34,75% / Lost:  1.4%

PS: A entry with a Reward/Risk Ratio below 2.5 is not recommended!

Until which level can I jump in with a R/R Ratio of 2.5 ?

( t + s*2.5 ) / ( 2.5 + 1 ) = 0.1535$

So the last recommended entry for AVLN.OB( 2.5 ) is :  ----------> 0.1535$
Reward/Risk Ratio of  2.5 ----------->Gain: 25,00% / Lost:10,0%

Best Regards

[David Randolph]

It's great that you've made some commentaries because I had nothing new to say about the stock 

I agree with phabrux's math and trading plan, there's just a problem: AVLN.OB may break $0.14 on the intraday and close higher and that would still mean a buy/hold, not a sell. So it's probably hard, since you want to sell on close, to get $0.139 as a selling price on a real break of the support line.

The rest seems fine and $0.14 is indeed a valid support level. The stock rallied to the $0.18 resistance and pulled back to the new found support, prior resistance, of $0.14. Now we'll see which is more important, the $0.14 support or the $0.18 resistance.

I'll do what the market tells me to do, I hold this stock for too long to think too much ... so I'll sell it if it is set to close below $0.14.