FCX

[bjc]

This is a Large Cap trading near its 52 week high.  I usually don't like to be a buyer at 52 week highs, but I just can't ignore this.

I took a half position at 107.73.  I'd like to pick up my 2nd half under 100 if I can.  I don't think FCX could hold under 100 for long.  

FCX EPS in most recent quarter was $3.21.  If you get no growth, then thats about $13 a year in EPS.  I just don't think FCX has any business trading at a forward PE under 10.  

I loved AUY until I found FCX.  I still like AUY, just not nearly as much as FCX, so I need to go all in to FCX.  FCX made a recent acquisition and their rev/eps #s have BLOWN UP.  Look at rev #s...

Q3 06  1.6 bil
Q4 06  1.6 bil

Q1 07 2.3 bil
Q2 07 5.8 bil

and eps..

Q306 $1.73
Q406 1.99

Q107 2.75
Q207 3.21


This valuation is silly.  It should be a mad dash to $150.

[bjc]

I picked up a second half in the upper 104s. 

FCX looks great after consolidating for a little while.  I think it's ready for new highs..maybe $120-125 on this run?

Their debt from the Phelps Dodge acquisition has been about half paid down to $7 billion.

They are making so much money it's insane.  Anyone who thinks this is expensive at $100 is crazy and hasn't looked at the fundamentals. 

Copper COMEX up 1.5% today to $3.68.  If Copper is $4/lb, I can't even imagine the fair value of FCX.  At least $200 I'd think...



SLT is another miner that looks great.  Also a tremendous chart for techies on the board.  It trades at 7 or 8 times earnings..stupid.

[bjc]

The world has a high demand for copper right now.  It's coming from all over, especially China.

Knocking on the door of a new high, this stock is way too cheap.  Nice looking consolidation and ready to rock. 

Great fundamentals + solid technicals = explosion

[bjc]

FCX and SLT are both primed for breakout.  The valuations on these stocks is stupid, the market has somehow forgotten copper is selling for more than $3.60 a barrel.  This equates to big dollars for these companies, any excess price in copper goes straight to the bottom line, and they make a ton of cash.  And they're trading at stupid low valuations. 

FCX I'd like to sell over $200 and SLT is worth at least $30.  SLT in the teens is quite a bargain, and I dont think FCX will ever see double digits again barring a split / breakdown in the economy. 

This is an excellent way to play China without really having your money there.  You're beating the money there, before everyone realizes it.

[bjc]

I think FCX is presenting an excellent buying opportunity.  I believe Wall Street is providing investors and traders with an excellent opportunity to pick up some cheap shares of a great stock.

I'm of the opinion copper mining stocks are being sold off too much.  Granted, copper is down to $3.50 / lb vs.  a high of about $3.75 a few weeks ago.  But $3.50 is still a high price for copper, and if copper stayed at $3.50 FCX would make more money than they know what to do with.   Special huge dividend central.

PCU is performing better recently, but I prefer FCX.

[bjc]

I have a feeling bottom feeders will feast on cheap FCX shares today as copper rises and the market realizes it has punched copper producers a bit hard.  I suppose earnings before the bell tomorrow will tell the story.

[bjc]

FCX looks primed for a move higher.  An uptick in copper would help especially.  I'd guess the next stop is $130 if we can break $120. 

[bjc]

Sold my Freeport this morning to buy CSIQ. 

FCX was my favorite stock for a bit, so it hurts to take a small loss on it.  Copper went against me and I decided the stock wasn't as cheap as I ever really thought.

Still like it, but like CSIQ more and had to make the switch.  It hurt to sell this one..