VIV

[bjc]

I guess VIV has about 1/3 of the mobile market in Brazil.  Wireless is how I like to play emerging markets, people always want cell phones and they always seem to use them for more and more stupid reasons that make the mobile operators money.  

I really like CHL but think it has outpaced itself for now, and I really like VIP, one of the big 2 Russian wireless servers.  I sold my BTM today for a 6-7% gain, and I'm moving into VIV.

I realized BTM is more of a fixed-line / wireless play, whereas VIV is a straight wireless play.  I think the market either a.) hasn't realized the value of VIV, or b.) the hype will drive VIV.

VIV has a very nice chart.

[setravis]

Your post title has been edited of all the capital letters.
I have ask members to stop doing this.
It is as though one is trying to speak to loud to gain attention to the thread.
The thread will be read, if other members have interest to do so.
Thank you, good trading to you !

[bjc]

Sorry travis, I just copied and pasted the name from Etrade.  The caps annoyed me too but I didn't think it was a big enough deal to edit it. 

Didn't realize this was an issue, I apologize.

[setravis]

No problem...
It's just, this is a famous and notorious way used on the yahoo and other message boards to make their self be noticed. Everyone types using all capital letters, "LIKE WHEN YOU ARE TRYING TO SPEAK TO LOUD"....see what I mean ?
Thanks for understanding, and good luck with all your trades.
Your fellow trader @ 3SOF
Regards,
setravis

[bjc]

Nice weekly chart, also.

The markets scaring me is the only thing.  I'm a bit surprised market turned around after great earnings from tech titans.

We need oil to back off, and GOOG and EBAY to announce good earnings along with good guidance.

btw, bought this morning at $5.61.

[setravis]

bjc, Now to comment on your stock pick. Applaud the pick...
Chart looks good ! Quarterly growth (yoy) has been good. I believe she paid out a June dividend.
It has some nice Institutional Holders,
Along with some good Top Mutual Fund Holders.

Good looking numbers here !
52wk Range: 3.12 - 5.73
Volume: 16,981,254
Avg Vol (3m): 3,757,740
Market Cap: 8.08B
P/E (ttm): 26.38
EPS (ttm): 0.21

Technicals
Record Volume
Record Price High
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
12.19%above 13-day MA
18.39%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 86 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $7,604.96 
P/E Ratio: 24.64 
PEG Ratio: -6.93333 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Sell


Looks to me this chart has made a BreakOut from a
Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal) Pattern.

The Head and Shoulders bottom is referred to sometimes as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action forming both Head and Shoulders Top and Head and Shoulders Bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom.

Head and Shoulder Bottoms are one of the most common and reliable reversal formations. It is important to remember that they occur after a downtrend and usually mark a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. Shoulders can be different widths as well as different heights. Keep in mind that technical analysis is more an art than a science. If you are looking for the perfect pattern, it may be a long time coming.

Analysis of the Head and Shoulders Bottom should focus on correct identification of neckline resistance and volume patterns. These are two of the most important aspects to a successful read, and by extension a successful trade. The neckline resistance breakout combined with an increase in volume indicates an increase in demand at higher prices. Buyers are exerting greater force, and the price is being affected.

As seen from the examples, traders do not always have to chase a stock after the neckline breakout. Often, but certainly not always, the price will return to this new support level and offer a second chance to buy. Measuring the expected length of the advance after the breakout can be helpful, but don't count on it for your ultimate target. As the pattern unfolds over time, other aspects of the technical picture are likely to take precedent. Technical analysis is dynamic, and your analysis should incorporate aspects of the long-, medium- and short-term picture.

[BigSully1]

bjc. I see your very interested in wireless/ telecom. I have a entire diversified Latin American port. ( about 30 stocks) that includes AMX-Mexico, TEO-Argentina, and TSP -Brazil. I wasn't even aware of BTM and VIV though.

Here is some some more from the sector in other parts of the world that I think also look pretty darn good. I don't own these though, not yet anyway.

TKC - Turkish
MBT - Russian
TEF - S.A.

[bjc]

Sully -

Just discovered AMX last night..love it!  Think it should be a quick ride to 100 for sure.

[bjc]

Minor setback on AMX.  I bought a day early, no worries though the value in AMX is crazy compared to CHL.  Either CHL is in for a major correction or AMX needs to catch up to CHL's valuation in my opinion.


VIV looks good but the low volume kinda concerns me.  I'd like to see some big time volume to come along with 52 week highs, but I'm not too concerned.  I except a tough struggle at 6 but then very bullish if it can break 6.

[bjc]

As expected, 6 is tough.  VIV needs to make a decision soon on which way to move.  Very close to trend line.  Held up very well yesterday in the wicked conditions.

[bjc]

VIV turns a profit in Q3.

http://www.reuters.com/article/technology-media-telco-SP/idUSN0556107020071106

Stock reacting well today, fighting with 6 right now.

[bjc]

VIV is in the process of starting to turn a profit.  I think the real gains are yet to be had.  My target is $9.

Brazil is on fire, hopefully we catch some good hype like China did.  TNE is a completely different valuation type, PE is about 10 and they're actually still growing.  This Brazil hype is helping attract attention, it has to be running out of sellers.

[setravis]

Viva la Vivo, A Brazilian Wireless Growth Opportunity !

This fast-growing company,
was put together in a series of mergers and looks anything but cheap with nothing but losses. But its true profit potential hasn't emerged yet. It sells at only 1.2 times trailing revenue and what I think can be 15 times next year's earnings. When fully consolidated, it will be the biggest wireless phone company in the southern hemisphere, with more than a third of Brazil's market.

Brazilian wireless market,
this strikes me as an idea worthy of further research. Why? I like the competitive barrier large wireless companies have in terms of an economy of scale that's hard to match--especially when placed in the context of a growing economy like Brazil's.
The stock's attraction is hard to see because history shows all losses, but the future promises to be different from the past.
Hidden value could be providing the opportunity !

Pending acquisitions stand to return Vivo as the clear wireless leader in Brazil.
"One of the fastest-growing wireless markets in the world...and still has significant growth left."