UTVG.OB

[la-onda]

UTVG: Volume Spike; 44% > 20-adsv, Stock -8.13%
Thursday , April 03, 2008 14:05ET

This is the 1st VOLUME alert for UTVG in the past 7 calendar days.

Trading for Universal Travel Group (OTCBB: UTVG) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 14:05 ET, the stock had already traded 284,130 shares via 155 trades. The cumulative volume is 44.27% above its 20-day average of 196,940. Normally the stock experiences around 116 individual trades per session.

So far, today's volume surge has caused a net decline in UTVG's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $1.470, down $-0.130 (-8.13%).

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $1.670. The price has declined more than 11 percent since then.

Over the last 10 trading session UTVG has traded in a range between $1.500 and $1.700 and is currently trading 74.30% below its 52-week high of $5.720 set on October 31,2007 and 1.38% above its 52-week low of $1.450 from March 11,2008.

In the previous 3 sessions, UTVG trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:

April 02, 2008 --- closed at $1.600 down $0.070 (-4.19%) on 327,900 shares
April 01, 2008 --- closed at $1.670 up $0.100 (+6.37%) on 390,300 shares
March 31, 2008 --- closed at $1.570 up $0.060 (+3.97%) on 380,300 shares

[tokyopua]

I try not to let stocks get me down, but there is a certain element of sadness to looking at this chart, specially cause I bought more after the CC lol.

[David Randolph]

I try not to let stocks get me down, but there is a certain element of sadness to looking at this chart, specially cause I bought more after the CC lol.

Indeed, UTVG.OB is hard to swallow. I've lost any hope I had left ... I'm losing 75% on this one now and have just 2.4% of capital invested.

Instead of selling to preserve the 2.4% of capital, I'll keep the stock in the Main Portfolio. This holding will be used to remind myself that, regardless of the "fundamentals", everything is possible in the stock market.

UTVG grew EPS 225% in 2007 versus 2006 and it is expected to almost double EPS in 2008. Yet it trades at, let me see ... 5.4 times 2007 EPS of $0.26.

We know there are some accounting irregularities in the company's statements, but not all that material in my view. Ok, instead of $0.26 EPS, probably if everything was made exactly by the US rules, it would then be $0.20 ... and $0.40 in 2008.

The market says this story will end in the Pink Sheets or with UTVG delisted due to fraud or something like that ... at least the valuation says that will be the case, or else how come UTVG would be this cheap? It is also possible, even though less likely, that the market is just inefficient in pricing UTVG ... or else people just know there will be bad news somewhere down the line and just dump the stock until the truth is revealed.

UTVG should come out immediately and restate earnings again.

I was so stupid not to pay enough attention to material weaknesses in financial reporting.

I won't repeat this mistake in the future.

The lesson learned is: if there are accounting deficiencies investors will always put a severe discount in the valuation of the company, they won't believe the numbers. I'll avoid any stock where investors suspect there are accounting irregularities.

realcoolhead was right since the beginning about the OTCBB + Chinese combination, hats off to him.

[la-onda]

 

[Jim897]

> The market says this story will end in the Pink Sheets or with UTVG delisted due to fraud or something like that ... at least the valuation says that will be the case, or else how come UTVG would be this cheap? It is also possible, even though less likely, that the market is just inefficient in pricing UTVG ... or else people just know there will be bad news somewhere down the line and just dump the stock until the truth is revealed.

You are really just guessing.  For all you know, there could just be one or two big share holders who really need the money now - and it could have nothing to with the company.  And that selling pressure may have led others to decide to sell as they saw the price falling, so it builds itself.  I think this is just a likely as anything you've guessed.  If you have some reason to think I'm wrong, then please tell me as I have a good deal of money in this stock.

[pinoleropuro]

I am no expert but purely from a very short term technical view it looks very bullish. 

I found this explanation and I hope it helps someone although I personally am not sure.

"If a price touches or penetrates the upper Bollinger Band and the RSI is above 70 (possibly approaching 80) the trend may reverse and decline. On the other hand, if a price touches or penetrates the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI is below 30 (possibly approaching 20) it indicates the trend may reverse and move upward."
In "Technical Analysis Explained", Martin J. Pring suggests that you can determine whether a price reversal is imminent by observing how price behaves following the initial Bollinger band crossing. He states: "If the price makes several failed attempts to cross or touch a band, but in doing so traces out a classic reversal price formation, you can expect a price trend reversal.".

In "The Master Swing Trader", Alan S. Farley suggests that a move that leads to a price bar extending over 50% beyond the Bollinger band is over-extended and encountering resistance and thus overdue for a reversal. This is the interpretation that Recognia implements.

[kpunarc]

Sure. I don't think anyone would argue the reversal. but what about questioning how long will it take before the reversal and when it does..will it come back to any decent short-term bullish number before it continues on it's downward spiral...

[tokyopua]

In a years time we could all be looking back on this as one of those little  low end blips like in the charts David has posted for other stocks like ANGN, so given most of the capital is already lost anyway it makes sense to wait and see if the original hypothesis was correct.

As for not buying BB stocks again, I think maybe that makes sense for investing, but for trading I have to argue that a lot of the 3SOF capital now being invested was gained from well timed BB stock trades.  So, for the technimental Portfolio, I hope we will still trade those, as they can be very high profit trades.

[la-onda]

 
Universal Travel Group Announces Revenue and Earnings Guidance for 2008
Monday , April 21, 2008 10:02ET

SHENZHEN, China, Apr 21, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Universal Travel Group Inc. (OTCBB: UTVG) ("Universal Travel Group" or the "Company"), a fast growing comprehensive travel services provider in China specializing in online and customer representative services to the travel service industry offering packaged tours, air ticketing, hotel reservation and air cargo transportation, today announced its 2008 full year earnings guidance.

After careful evaluation of the impact of the severe snowstorms that affected China during the first quarter of 2008 and taking into consideration the positive impact of the Beijing Olympics on air travel and lodging, the Company expects annual Revenue to be between $69 million and $73 million, a year-over-year increase of 55.8% to 64.8% from $44.3 million in 2007. Net income for 2008 is expected to be in the range of $12 million to $14 million, not including stock based compensation for 2008, an increase of 27.7% to 48.9% from $9.4 million in 2007 not including stock based compensation for 2007.

[soxguy]

Good news at last!

[buddjas1]

38,110,517 shares

assuming 950k in stock based compensation reduction (avg. of last two years)

13 million net income guidace; adjusted for stock based comp = about 12 million net income

12/38 = $0.31 EPS * 5 PE (OTCBB China gets about 5) = $1.55.

That's about EPS of $0.08 per quarter.  Where is the growth?  What happens after the Olympics?

[tokyopua]

Momentum is back in this baby!  Not sure if I will keep it as a long term investment, but glad at least I didnt sell at the absolute bottom like I did with CHME lol. 

[buddjas1]

Break the trend line and it could get interesting.

[la-onda]

UTVG: Jumps +8.70%; Vol +92%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Monday , April 21, 2008 16:21ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Universal Travel Group (OTCBB: UTVG) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: UTVG      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE              $1.61         $1.75        +8.70%
VOLUME           226,041       432,898       +91.51%
#TRADES              129           227       +75.97%
DAY-HI             $1.72         $1.77       LATE-HI
DAY-LO             $1.48         $1.48           N/A

TODAY'S RAiDAR HEADLINES for UTVG:

04/21/2008 09:02 Universal Travel Group Announces Revenue and Earnings Guidance for 2008 - bw

[Terliso]

UTVG could go up to the resistance around $2.50