BVSP (Brazilian Bovespa Stock Index) INDX

[setravis]

Here is a market that has been in a Bull Market !
The Brizilian Bovespa Stock Index, Symbol ($BVSP)

IBOVESPA SAO PAULO (Sao Paolo:^BVSP) Delayed quote data 

Index Value: 35,475.02
Trade Time: Jan 6
Change:  538.91 (1.54%)
Prev Close: 34,936.11
Open: 34,940.42
Day's Range: 34,940.42 - 35,529.45
52wk Range: 23,534.00 - 35,529.00

Headline News Link :  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=%5EBVSP

3 Year Chart......

[setravis]

Brazil's stocks and currency slip for 2nd day.......


SAO PAULO, May 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's stocks and currency slipped for a second day on Wednesday after former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned global investors about a "dramatic contraction" in Chinese stocks.

After rising early, the Bovespa <.BVSP> index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange closed down 0.76 percent at 51,812 points on heavy volume of nearly 5 billion reais.

The index, which closed at a record 52,423 on Monday, has gained about 7 percent in May and some 18 percent in 2007.

Brazil's currency, the real <BRBY>, weakened 0.36 percent to 1.951 per U.S dollar, pressured in part by another central bank intervention to buy dollars.

The central bank has frequently bought dollars on the spot market and sold currency swaps to blunt the reals gains.

The real has traded below the 2.0-per-dollar mark since May 15, when it pierced that level for the first time in six years.

Interest rate futures <0#DIJ:> rose at the BM&F futures exchange in Sao Paulo, after rallying for much of the past two weeks after debt upgrades by Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings.

At the stock exchange, state-controlled oil giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile , Research) rose 0.64 percent to 47.20 reais, tracking gains in crude prices. Oil futures in London rose higher than $70 a barrel on increased tensions over Iran's nuclear program.

Iron ore giant CVRD (VALE5.SA: Quote, Profile , Research), which sells much of its exports in China, fell 1.45 percent to 71.50 reais.

The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange had net foreign investment of 217.14 million reais this month through May 18, according to figures released on Wednesday. Foreign investors bought 17.82 billion reais worth of stocks and sold 17.61 billion reais worth of shares.

[setravis]

I have been pumping some bucks into the Brazilian Market.......
Take a look at the Bull run the BVSP has made !

Here is the 3 year chart.............

[setravis]

Brazil stocks rise as Petrobras surges, real firms.......

SAO PAULO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Brazil's benchmark stock index rose on Thursday, led by a surge in shares of Petrobras after the company announced a giant oil find, while the currency edged higher on rising capital inflows.

Foreign investors have poured more cash in Brazil seeking to benefit from its benchmark interest rate, among the highest in the world when discounted for inflation. The outlook of lower rates in the United States has also helped

"There is an excess of dollars in the market," said Jose Roberto Carreira, manager of currency trading at the Fair brokerage. "Rates (in Brazil) continue to be very attractive."

Interest-rate futures <0#DIJ:> on the BM&F commodities and futures exchange in Sao Paulo fell, reflecting the improved market sentiment.

Shares of state oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA), the top heavyweight at the Bovespa, jumped 10.95 percent to 76.85 reais and traded as high as 78.27 reais after the company confirmed a giant oil find with recoverable reserves of up to 8 billion barrels. The company's voting shares (PETR3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 11.35 percent to 90.77 reais, also among the biggest gainers in the Bovespa. For more details see [ID:nN08643638].

Real Estate developer Gafisa (GFSA3.SA) rose 5.56 percent to 34.2 reais. The company late on Wednesday reported a 12 percent rise in third-quarter profit to 30.94 million reais as a decline in borrowing costs fueled housing demand.

Iron ore giant CVRD (VALE5.SA) gained 2.39 percent to 54.06 reais, tracking gains in other mining stocks after BHP Billiton made a long-waited bid for rival Rio Tinto. The takeover offer, rejected by Rio Tinto's board, raised hopes of a new wave of acquisition activity in the mining industry. (Reporting by Silvio Cascione and Elzio Barreto)

[setravis]

IBOVESPA SAO PAULO (Sao Paolo:^BVSP)   

Index Value: 63,714.33
Trade Time: 10:16AM ET
Change:  +152.42 (0.24%)
Prev Close: 63,561.91
Open: 63,571.45
Day's Range: 63314.48 - 65281.09
52wk Range: 40,038.00 - 65,949.00

[setravis]

Brazil, the Bovespa Index, PBR and Me
May 01, 2008


Yesterday I was watching Petroleo Brasiliero (PBR) fight with US$116 and feeling all pleased with myself about the short at $124. I'd pencilled in a $10 drop at the time, and at one point there was less than a buck to go for my target cover price. Nice quiet day, I thought.

So I went to make some coffee and do other things. I couldn't have been away from the screen for more than 10 minutes. PBR had shot to $121. "Strange...", I thought.

It turns out that while I was away, super duper stockpicker Ken Heebner had been on CNBC and gave PBR the full bull treatment. And that guy is good...gotta be said. And people listen to him (which is a little silly after the fact, as Heebner owns 2m PBR at $88 and $95, but sheep is as sheep does, Forrest). Whoosh! Up she went, almost touched $122 and dropped back. "Good," I thought, "the hot money has now rushed in...we'll drop back to $118 or so by the end of the day."

Then came part two. Ken wrapped up his segment, and out of the blue S&P ratings announced they were raising Brazil's credit rating into the investment grade category. You can see the second spike on the PBR chart, but have a look at this BOVESPA index chart and take a wild guess as to the exact timing of the news:

Yep, the whole index went up 6.33% on today's news. Which is great stuff for Brazil, and you can catch what happened to the Brazil ADRs on this link (very green), but it didn't do my Petrobras short any good at all.

So PBE closed at $121 today, and I saw most of the profit wiped out in a flash. And y'know what, that's ok! I'm happy for Brazil, that's for sure...this investment grade should have been granted a while ago, I think. But with the massive jump on the news, and hype going round with title lines such as "..heralds new age of investment...", methinks the Bovespa will have to cool its jets a little in the shorter term.

Looking at what happened to the Peru stock market in the days that followed its recent upgrade should give a ballpark idea of what's about to happen to the Bovespa (but with a heap more money flowing around, of course).

It's also nice to be reminded there are a million ways of losing in this game, just as there are a million ways of winning. And just when you think you got all the bases covered is just around the time the unknown variable tends to kick in....for example a country-wide ratings upgrade right on the back of a top guru recommending a stock. Hey...no harm done...the trade is still in profit, and there's no way I'll be letting it run into loss. But just imagine if you had 51% of your portfolio in that PBR short instead of less than 1% like me......a quiet reminder to keep eggs out of one basket, especially in the volatile world of LatAm stocks.

[setravis]

Brazilian Government Debt Upgrade Good News for Latin American ETFs
May 02, 2008


According to news sources, Brazil's government debt has been upgraded. This had been expected in the second half of this year. So, this announcement caught investors off guard and pleasantly surprised.


By raising the rating to investment grade, Brazil's cost of capital will almost certainly decline. Additionally, the upgrade opens the door for more capital that is restricted to investment grade only.


Recently, news regarding the large oil fields off the Sao Paulo coast of Brazil had stimulated much investor excitement. This excitement was tempered with comments regarding questions as to the size of the fields (as high as 40 billion barrels - Tupi and Sugarloaf/Carioca fields combined) and the complexity extracting the oil (up to six miles deep, among other factors).


Investment Strategy Implications

One of the investment positions in the Model Growth Portfolio is iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF) - Latin America 40, which is comprised predominantly of Brazilian issues, some Mexican issues (mostly energy), and a smattering of other Latin American companies.

[setravis]

Brazil: Let the Feeding Frenzy Begin
May 02, 2008


...but be smart and take the short-term profits.


There will be plenty of time to position yourself for the long term once the S&P investment grade upgrade starts to make a real impact on the Brazilian economy. However the chances of hot money sloshing in tomorrow are pretty high, with articles such as this one linked here predicting 25% index gains for 2008 fuelling the sheep money fire (remember the ADRs traded in New York yesterday, but the Brazilian markets were closed for May Day).

So where are the trades? Let's assume you don't have access to the Brazilian market directly and want to play the ADR stocks; here are a few to consider:

ERJ: the Embraer ADR. This one has lagged the market somewhat this year, despite being a great Brazilian success story and having an order book stacked up in the billions of dollars. Expansions in workforce have started getting the planes out to customers more quickly recently. It's something of a national jewel, this one.

VIV: Mobile phone play Vivo jumped 6.4% yesterday, but there's plenty more where that came from. Sector consolidation in Brazil is making the competition less cut-throat., and VIV should begin to perform well on its bottom line. As the North loves a growth stock in a growth sector, I expect Vivo to be a hot money target.

CIG: Cemig is a Brazilian energy play that popped 2% yesterday, but it still under its 52 wk highs. At $21 now, if this breaks $23 it'll be off to the races. [CORRECTED]

SBS: Sao Paolo water company SBS is sitting here at a great, great price. Dividend yield is attractive, and I have its forward PE pegged at 8X presently. That could easily expand to 12X now that investment grade is here. SBS is probably my top Brazil pick from here, but at the same time may not get the first wave of hot money washing over it.

ITU: Banco Itau got a big pop on strong volume yesterday on the investment grade news, and will be one of the first in line to receive hot money when Sao Paolo opens tomorrow. It may be close to fully priced on fundamentals right now, but there may well be a lack of logic in Brazilian trading over the next couple of sessions. Trade it on a momentum basis.

GGB: Gerdau Steel has resisted all downgrades on its climb to its current all time high. With a PE of 11.5X right now, there's more in the tank now that Brazil is "officially a serious country"*. Again, don't be afraid to take a short term profit on GGB, but be thinking about a longer term position afterwards.

So there are six ways to play the investment grade party. You'll notice that PBR and RIO aren't on the list. This because they're already 'world class' investment risks and won't be first in line to get "the pop" from this news. Another way to play Brazil is the useful ETF play, EWZ. Finally, the Brazilian bonds may have tightened considerably these last 48 hours, but with the high interest now on offer to more institutional money, they will still have plenty of buyers on Friday. Another good option to consider.

I hope this little overview helps in its own small way. However I'm sure you'll need to do more DD on any or all of these before making a good investment decision.

[setravis]

A Brasilian Beauty! 

Is Brasil the next United States of America? Is the USA the next Brasil?
If you haven't followed developments in Brasil's economy over the past decade, you've missed one of the great success stories of our time.

     Brasil is one of the so-called BRIC economies (Brasil, Russia, India and China), which are now developing to the point of actually having achieved something.

     Brasil is my favorite among these top developing economies for a number of reasons. But before I go further, I should reveal a prejudice.

     A few years ago, I remarried to a stunning young woman who was a recent Miss Brasil. Through her good graces, I have come to know Brasil better than an outsider typically would after visiting sporadically. Luckily, my wife is not only beautiful but also her family is well connected at the highest levels of Brasilian commerce and politics.

     My wife tweaked an interest in Brasil

     I can report from first-hand experience that Brasil is a country where you can live exceedingly well.

     Not only is it a great country in which to be rich, it has also become a great country in which to become rich. Brasil has more millionaires than India or Russia. In 2007, a new millionaire was minted in Brasil on average every five minutes of every business day.

     Brasil and the U.S. Trade Places?

     Ironically, while most Americans were looking the other way, Brasil flourished with the sort of sound fiscal and monetary policies that helped the U.S. attain prosperity.

     For example, Brasil ran a comfortable budget surplus of 4% to 5% of GDP for the past four years. Brasilian inflation is under control. The country also runs annual trade surpluses.

     And as the world's leading producer of biofuels, Brasil is energy independent.

     Meanwhile, the U.S. has run staggering trade and budget deficits of the kind that led to hyperinflation in Brasil in the last century.

     As we enter 2009, the U.S. budget deficit has swollen to a multi-trillion-dollar improvisation of bailouts and rescues sure to debase the dollar and downgrade the living standards of those solely dependent on dollar income.

     Just as it once would have been folly to trust your savings to the Brazilian government, I believe it is now folly to trust your savings to the U.S. government.

     In fact, I would not be surprised if the U.S. dollar as we know it ceases to exist in the next five years.

     That's because the pattern in every country that fouls its currency through hyperinflation is to scrap the tarnished brand and issue a new currency after hyperinflation has made the old one repugnant to the people it betrayed.

     Germany had six currencies in the twentieth century. It scrapped all but the euro in the wake of runaway inflation or collapse.

     To say the dollar is heading for oblivion may seem exaggerated or unpatriotic. But it would be rather thick of us to miss the point when the leading U.S. monetary authorities have been at pains to explain that it's their conscious policy to devalue the dollar.

     I am sure that the great damage the concerted policy of inflation by the U.S. government would cause is an argument for diversifying cash reserves and currencies outside the U.S. Hence the attractiveness of Brasilian government bonds, which you can buy for the time being at a discount courtesy of hedge funds that have dumped Brasilian assets in a scramble to raise cash.

     Hyperinflation once plagued Brasil. The source of this was a relentless expansion of the money supply. The Brasilian government used to finance its operations and development projects not out of taxes or by borrowing funds but simply by creating money.

     In other words, the cause of Brasil's hyperinflation is the very policy Washington is now adopting.

     As a result, from 1980 through 1997 the price level in Brasil increased by a factor of one trillion. Per capita real income growth ceased during this period.

     Almost every Brasilian adult -- even my wife, who was born in 1980 -- has unhappy memories of this period. And Brasilians have no wish to return to policies that destroyed their economy.

     Remember, the Germans became the foremost foes of inflation in Europe in the twentieth century after suffering grievously with hyperinflation.

     This is one reason why the Brasilian real is a better bet going forward than the dollar. No people who have been through hyperinflation want to repeat the experience.

     Given these prospects, the crisis has handed us an opportunity. Buy Brasil...  Sell the dollar.

Happy Investing,

[setravis]

Brazil shares fall with global stocks, real eases
Mon Apr 20, 2009 12:17pm EDT


BRASILIA, April 20 (Reuters) - Brazilian share prices fell on Monday, tracking a worldwide slump in stocks amid renewed worries about the global financial sector, while the national currency also eased.
Sao Paulo's main stock index, the Bovespa .BVSP, shed 3.08 percent to 44,367.42, led down by commodity and banking stocks.

World stocks slipped from last week's three-month highs as news of a big increase in troubled loans at Bank of America (BAC.N) made investors nervous.

The bank said its purchase of Merrill Lynch more than doubled its quarterly profit but results included a big increase in troubled loans and the bank's shares tumbled 17 percent.

Banks in Brazil fell in sympathy with U.S. losses.

Banco do Bradesco (BBDC4.SA) fell 3.55 percent to 25.27 reais, Banco do Brasil (BBAS3.SA) shed 1.96 percent to 18.05 reais and Itau (ITAU4.SA) fell 3.64 percent to 27.27 reais.

Oil giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA) fell 3.57 to 27.29 reais as oil prices CLc1 shed more than 8 percent.

Vale (VALE5.SA) fell 1.98 percent to 29.21 reais as copper prices slumped 4.28 percent and after announcing it was selling iron ore to customers in China at a discount of 20 percent pending negotiation of a new benchmark price for 2009.


Commodity stocks tend to suffer when the prospect for the world economy worsens on the belief that there will be less global demand for metals and energy products.

Steelmakers tracked metal prices lower with CSN (CSNA3.SA) falling 4.20 percent to 38.57 reais, Gerdau (GGBR4.SA) falling 3.95 percent to 14.84 reais and Usiminas (USIM5.SA) down 4.98 percent to 32.98 reais.

Brazil's currency, the real BRBY, gave up nearly 2 percent to 2.235 per dollar as the greenback rose against a basket of currencies .DXY.

Interest rate futures <0#DIJ:> were mostly higher despite analysts revising down further their expectations of growth this year to a contraction of 0.5 percent, in the latest weekly central bank survey of local institutions.


Below is the BVSP 5 year chart...

[setravis]

EMERGING MARKETS TAKING THE LEAD.......

As the markets have rallied off the March 9th bottom, we find it rather interesting that the Emerging Markets have taken a lead role and have outperformed rather handily. The growing consensus believes that when the worlds' stock markets do bottom, then the Emerging Markets will take the role of "leader" once again. However, we would caution, for rarely do the leaders of past bull markets lead new bull markets. Moreover, and from a fundamental perspective...much of the Emerging Market economic growth was built upon the back of Western credit expansion and conduits to these countries rather than internal growth. Western banks were simply "reaching for yield"; and with higher yields come higher risks. We can only look at the debacle occurring in Eastern Europe; but that is a discussion for another day.

We would like to look at Brazil's BOVESPA Index, for it is quite simple from a technical perspective to delineate both bull and bear markets. And, it appears an inflection point / delineation point has just been reached - the 16-month moving average. For now, prices are weakening from this level, and if the 2000 to 2003 bear market is any guide, then the weakness we've seen from this level will continue and perhaps will result in a test of the lows quite far below current levels. If not, and prices rally above this level - then we can be rather comfortable with believing a new bull market has been born, and we should do nothing more than be buyers.

For now, the risk-reward favors selling short Brazil, and one can do that via EWZ; however, if the 16-month is violated to the upside, then one should be a buyer. We believe a bear market is in force given the manner in which the 5-month RSI is trading, but our battle line at the 16-month is drawn, and now we can asses our risk and trade around it.

Good luck and good trading,

[setravis]

Brazil Bovespa index down 3 pct on commodity drop
Thu May 21, 2009 2:30pm EDT

SAO PAULO, May 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks slumped 3 percent in late afternoon trade on Thursday, the biggest rout in five days, as commodity prices dropped in international markets.
The benchmark Bovespa index .BVSP lost 3 percent to 49,689.90 points, its lowest since May 15, dragged down by energy giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA) and mining company Vale (VALE5.SA). The companies have the heaviest weighting in the index.

Vale, the world's largest iron-ore producer, shed 3.9 percent to 32.01 reais. Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, dropped 2.7 percent to 32.25 reais as oil prices CLc1 fell 2 percent in New York.

[setravis]

CORRECTED - Brazil stocks waver as Wall St slips, but currency up
Tue Jun 23, 2009 12:33pm EDT

SAO PAULO, June 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's stocks seesawed on Tuesday as oil giant Petrobras shares' gains were offset by worries about the health of the world economy.

U.S. existing home sales increased at a slower-than-expected pace in May, indicating the U.S. economy's recovery from a severe recession is likely to be tepid. Brazil's markets care about U.S. data as far as it's indicative of how the world's largst economy is doing.

Brazil's local currency gained slightly after the previous day's plunge.

Over the past three months, Brazilian assets have rallied as hopes for a global economic recovery whetted investors' appetite for risk and emerging market assets. But investors were now reassessing the extent of the economic rebound because of mixed data and an uncertain outlook.

Brazil's Bovespa index .BVSP was little changed, up just 0.01 percent, at 49,498.28 points in choppy trade after falling more than 3 percent in the previous session. The index is in negative territory in June after rallying for three straight months, but it has gained more than 31 percent so far in 2009.

The market's fluctuations occurred against the backdrop of losses on Wall Street, where U.S. stocks slipped as Boeing again delayed the first test flight of its Dreamliner aircraft and the existing home sales data raised concerns about the strength of a potential economic recovery.

Brazil's real gained 0.6 percent to 2.01 per U.S. dollar, but is still weaker for the month against the dollar.

"It's an adjustment after a very strong movement generated by a rise in risk-aversion abroad yesterday," said Silvio Campos Neto, chief economist at Banco Schahin.

The real has strengthened around 16 percent against the dollar so far this year -- a rally that has made government officials worried about the prospects for local exports.

At the stock exchange, financial shares led losses. Itau Unibanco (ITUB4.SA) shed 1.22 percent to 30.01 reais, Banco Bradesco (BBDC4.SA) fell 1.37 percent to 28.01 reais. Brazilian financial and commodities exchange operator BM&F Bovespa (BVMF3.SA) fell 1.01 percent to 10.80 reais.

Market heavyweight Vale (VALE5.SA) also weighed on the index, falling 0.43 percent to 29.81 reais even as copper prices rose.

The downside was limited by Petrobras (PETR4.SA), which gained 0.32 percent to 30.96 reais, rebounding after its 3.4 percent slump on Monday.

Steelmaker CSN (CSNA3.SA) also gained 0.7 percent to 41.95 reais after the company said it had hired 1,200 workers at its Volta Redonda plant following signs the market is recovering. Late last year, it had cut 1,300 jobs as the global economic crisis cut into demand for steel. Elsewhere in the sector, Gerdau (GGBR4.SA) gained 1 percent to 19.24 reais as metal prices rose.

Interest-rate futures <0#DIJ:> were broadly lower, with the central bank still widely expected to ease monetary policy further even if at a slower pace.

Last week Brazil's central bank said it saw "residual leeway" for future interest-rate cuts in minutes from its rate-setting meeting earlier in the month, signaling it will reduce borrowing costs at a slower pace.

[setravis]

Bovespa operates at high opening...

On Thursday 09/09/2010 at 10:52
São Paulo, 9 set (EFE) .- The Index of the Stock Exchange of Sao Paulo (Bovespa) opened Thursday at high 0.19%, to 66,530 points.
In the first 16 968 transactions, trading volume was R $ 262 million.
Leading the high, the paper's preferred fuel distributor Ultrapar (1.53%).
Diminishing, the Embraer common shares (-0.95%).
The preferred shares of Petrobras fell 0.54% and were the most traded with a share of 28.46%.
On the exchange market, the dollar retreated 0.17%, Rated R $ 1.720 to purchase and U.S. $ 1.722 for sale.

[setravis]

Brazil stocks rise as consumer confidence rises...

Brazilian stocks rose Wednesday, finding support from a report showing a rise in confidence among consumers in Latin America's largest economy.

Investors also assessed data from the central bank that show loan growth accelerated last month.

Brazil's Bovespa equity index rose 0.9% to 68,205.18, erasing its 0.7% decline in the previous session.

Gainers on Wednesday included home building stocks, including a 5.8% rise in shares of MRV Engenharia, a 4.4% rise in PDG Realty and a 1.1% gain in Gafisa (GFA).

Earlier in the session, the Getulio Vargas Foundation, also known as FGV, said its consumer confidence index for September rose 0.7% to 121.7 from August, the highest reading for the index since it was established in 2005, noted RBC Capital Markets. The index has now risen for seven straight months. The index's historical average is 107 points.

Separately, Brazil's central bank said lending by private sector and state-run banks expanded at the fastest rate in more than a year. In August, outstanding loans rose 2.2% from the previous month, marking the largest month-over-month increase since July 2009.

At the same time, the rate of loan delinquency fell to 4.8% from 4.9% in July, the bank said.

Citigroup told clients in a note Wednesday that it remains bullish on Brazilian banking stocks. The broker expects a positive environment for earnings in the second half of this year and into 2011 "as loan growth is picking up, and lower delinquency rates should allow for lower loan loss provisions going forward," wrote Citi analyst Daniel Abut.

Also, banking firms Itau Unibanco and Santander Brasil should continue to experience cost synergies from their respective mergers, "providing an additional boost to bottom line growth," he wrote.

Shares of Itau (ITUB) closed 0.7% higher while Santander Brasil (BSBR) shares fell 0.8%. Stock in Banco Bradesco (BBD) closed up 0.7% and shares of state-run Banco do Brasil rose 1.3%.

In other regional market action, Mexico's IPC fell 0.3% to 33,207.21. Chile's IPSA fell 1% to 4,772.29 and Argentina's Merval shed less than 1 point to end at 2,531.64.