FSLR

[stocky]

I know that David does not like anything north of 1 Billion Market cap, but the way FSLR blew away the estimates, I think we should have it in 3SoF. If higher multiples deter you then you may have never bought stocks like GOOG. More input from the 3SoF community is welcome.

[stocky]

I own FSLR both in my personal and Strategy Lab Open accounts.

[Houlahan]

Are you concerned about the chatter of Congress may move forward on an energy bill without including an extension of tax solar credits? Tax credits have historically been a huge driver for the industry, and have given businesses tax incentives to invest in solar technology. Just want to hear your thoughts. I have not been following the issue. I guess you have.

[stocky]

US market for solars is like the backyard. The real sales and orders are coming from Spain and Germany. The Congress chatter is not a big issue. Infact, as the crude passes 100 or/and more friction and stress appears b/w US and OPEC nations, I can bet that their will be lot of Alt. Energy cries. The momentum is already building up. The harm done to the evnironment by fossil fuels is for years swept under the carpet by the big funded oil lobby, that may well change in near future. I see a big wind of change already blowing in the direction. Stars are aligning, not to be in Solars now would be like not to own tech before the Internet hey days. However, beware of companies with no revenues or products. Easiest bet would be to follow the big money, the best would become bigger and bigger. FSLR is the best in its class. Just watch it.

[stocky]

In addition, I think as opposed to considering Solars as the momentum fads, they should be bought in appropriate size [the size that your risk tolerance allows] for investment with atleast 3 year horizon. Once you do then the extreme swings of leading Solars will mean less and you will eventually owning multi-baggers in the account.

[Houlahan]

Hi Stocky,
Thanks for your thoughts. I believe you are right, rising oil will continue to steer us to solar alt. energy. I think there is trouble brewing with OPEC and oil lobbyist. The value of the dollar does not help either. Something needs to give.

Not to get off topic, but did you see FSLR uses cadmium telluride (CdTe) semiconductor material? CdTe is a useful material for solar cells (photovoltaics). It is cheaper than silicon, especially in thin-film solar cell technology, but not as efficient. CdTe is toxic. Not all solar companies use this stuff. I wonder what ASTI uses? Anyway, environmentalist love it b/c they can recycle the modules at the end of their use. Where do they find this CdTe stuff? Is it made in a lab? Excuse my ignorance.

Good to know orders come from Germany and Spain.
I like your idea stocky. Were you thinking of picking 1 solar out of the 3?

[stocky]

Bears will throw all kind of toxic and non toxic reasons for you to dump your shares cheap. If you enter any store, and heck even most work places in LA, you will have a clearly worded warning: "The premises contains chemicals known to the State of California to cause Cancer...". Atleast I wont be sitting or shopping around the toxics with FSLR even if it contains complete toxic substances. And mind you that your innocent Laser Printer may be more harmful then most known toxics according to one study, which I dont have a source at the moment to quote.

I am not very clear about the material origin but the material used by FSLR is cheaper and readily available then other solar companies and its technology though bit less efficient is easier to ramp up the production.

Know about choosing 1 of 3. I think rather then putting all the money on 1 of FSLR, SPWR and STP I would rather go with all three. In addition, I also have PBW and GEX, in my personal account, which gives me stakes in other companies including JASO, TSL, YGE and others. I have also kept cushion for buying more of the four solars FSLR, SPWR, STP and ASTI if the market dumps and run.

ASTI is interesting play. After Hydro was acquired by Statoil, I see it shows the interest of big players in the alternate energy. On that basis, I wont be surprised if FSLR or SPWR are taken over by big players, and that includes BP and GE.

[Houlahan]

Wow. Awesome Stocky!
Never been to Ca, did not know about the cancer warning signs at work places.
Interesting.

[stocky]

Just check FSLR chart below and decide for yourself   

[Leaira]

I love FSLR!  I've made a lot of money on it the last few months.  I just got into it yesterday.  I took $1.40 credit on a 200/195 bull put spread.  That's a 38% return!  It'll be a little less cuz I never hold spreads till expiration.  I always buy back for a small cost when the stock is done moving in that direction or the short option gets down to a dime or so.  Maybe a quarter on a volatile stock like FSLR.

[AussieTrader]

Just check FSLR chart below and decide for yourself   

Large increase in volume and volatility, topping out around $225 looks like a shorting opportunity, especially if the overall market is not supportive of continued aggresive upward movement..

[stocky]

Yes FSLR may be whacked by bigboys, though its extremely dangerous to short stock with such growth. Keep a stop above 230 if you don't want any nasty surprises. For very short term I even fear that bears will even short my cash position and may be very successful.

[Houlahan]

Hey Stocky,
You mentioned, "The real sales and orders are coming from Spain and Germany."
I was wondering why Spain and Germany were the hot spots for sales. It has something to do with taxes.

Did you hear AMAT acquired Baccini? I think Baccini makes the solar wafers. Interesting stuff brewing in the solar department. Thanks for opening my eyes.

[la-onda]

FSLR: UBS Securities Starts @ Buy; Sets Tgt @ $360; Analyst Notes
Thursday , December 13, 2007 07:15ET

Issuer: First Solar Inc (NasdaqNM: FSLR)
Analyst Firm:  UBS Securities Inc.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $360.00
Analyst Comments: The firm expects FSLR's proprietary cadmium telluride technology will allow the company to be the first to offer grid parity with traditional electricity costs based on cost per watt.

[stocky]

Not owning any Solar now is like not owning any Tech in 1997.