KWD

[nicknite20]

Any1 following this?
I opened a small position today..looks pretty interesting.

They're projecting 1.5 EPS for 2008, which, with a conservative 20 PE puts them around 30.
(stock is around 17 now)

Also, they rejected a 21 offer a month back saying it was too low.

Any thoughts appreciated..looking to add more.
Nick

[bjc]

A company with negative growth does not deserve a PE of 20.  I don't know why their revs and EPS have been shrinking the past few years but they have.  It seems this may change. 

If anything, this is a turnaround play.  I wouldn't say its cheap at all on a fundamental basis.  I'm surprised the stock isn't cheaper. 

"7:05AM Kellwood beats by $0.01, misses on revs; reaffirms FY08 EPS guidance, revs guidance; reaffirms FY09 EPS guidance, revs guidance (KWD) 15.99 : Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.14; revenues rose 1.8% year/year to $404.1 mln vs the $410.7 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $0.66-0.76, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.73 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $1.5-1.55 bln vs. $1.71 bln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.52 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $1.55 bln vs. $1.66 bln consensus. Co also announces the sale of Smart Shirts manufacturing operations, as well as related real estate assets in two separate transactions that will bring Kellwood gross proceeds of approximately $161 million in cash."

I wonder how they can forecast $0.66-0.76 in 08 and then $1.50 in 09?  They don't expect revs to grow at all.  10 PE generous for this stock imo. 

[nicknite20]

fair point..i think some of it relates to writedowns on goodwill on some of the acquisitions this yr. Also, their marketing expenditure has increased.

I still feel there's a lot more upside to it, but a more detailed review of the balancesheet is in order.

I'll spend some time on it later tonight.

[nicknite20]

This might be interesting..
(also, the CFO bought in open market last week..)

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/071219/1566128.html?.v=3

CtW calls for Kellwood to seek sale
Wednesday December 19, 4:39 pm ET


A Kellwood Co. shareholder, CtW Investment Group, is calling on Kellwood to explore a possible sale of the company or other strategic options, CtW said Tuesday.
CtW issued a letter to Kellwood on Tuesday that was posted on CtW's Web site asking for the company to explore a possible sale citing "the failure of Kellwood's independent directors to open a constructive dialogue with Sun Capital regarding its interest in acquiring Kellwood."


Sun Capital Securities Group LLC has twice made unsolicited bids to buy Kellwood for $543 million, both of which Kellwood rejected.

[nicknite20]

Any1 looked at this?
Stock around 19 now..Im smelling a buy out

[nicknite20]

.. and we're still @ 18? this is nuts

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080103/kellwood_offer.html?.v=1

[nicknite20]

amazing arbitrage opportunity here..

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/sun_capital_kellwood_buyout.html?.v=1

[nicknite20]

Window of opportunity closing..

doubled down @ 17..this was a "gimmee"

[nicknite20]

sweet

[David Randolph]

nicknite20, congratulations on this profit in KWD. You smelled a takeover offer and it became reality:

Sun Capital Affiliate Launches $21/Shr Offer For Kellwood
7:52 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - By Shara Tibken

Again, congrats

This thread will be removed from the Watch List soon.

[nicknite20]

Thanks David, that was a quick 20% profit..