DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[ScottishTrader]

Wow!

Havee you guys seen how much institutional interest there has been in DNDn lately???  This is just for the past week, but the past month is intense

Is on the buy side and the sell side, and to me it looks like it is mirrored almost perfectly - one institution selling out to another??  not sure what's going on here, except we know that there are some big boys at play here already....

[Melf Elf]

Welcome to the thread, logocovet.  I don't play options at all, so I can't comment on that. 

In the "We ain't out of the woods yet, Yogi Bear" Department, that 6.40 area sure is providing resistance, isn't it?  A couple of reasons:

1. That was the area of the lows in the middle of September.  There were seven trading session during which DNDN traded between 6.40-6.80.

2. While DNDN has gone down and tested 5.88-5.89 and The Basonita Trendline, the Kumo has inverted on us, and now is overhead at 6.37-6.51, so that's resistance, too.

Often, I talk about a basing formation being good enough to attack resistance.  After DNDN broke below 6.40 support and went down to 5.94, it raced right back up to 6.44 and got smacked.

That's called a "V" bottom.  Straight down...straight back up.  Those are weak bottoms.

We've now traded for seven sessions between 5.88 and 6.44, equaling the seven days in September that we traded between 6.40 and 6.80.  So, picture 6.40ish being "the line of scrimmage."  The bears are on defense (6.40-6.80 resistance); we bulls are on offense (5.88-6.40 support).

On the hourly chart below, you can see that we've got the possibility of an Inverse H&S pattern to go up against that 6.40-6.80 resistance.  The neckline is the 6.44 high last week and yesterday's high of 6.40.

The left shoulder is Oct 7 5.94 low and yesterday's 6.00 low.  The head is the 5.88 low.

We need to get above that 6.40-6.44 "line of scrimmage"   

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

For those folliowing this thread, the reason that I go into so much detail is because I know that I am lousy at predicting anything like what effect earnings will have on a stock, or in DNDN's case, what effect news from the Paris Conference will have on the stock.  I have absolutely no idea.

What I can know is where trendlines are, where "the line of scrimmage" is, where I want to enter a stock, where my stop is, etc.  As far as "Is this a good time to enter?" is concerned, Scotsman gave a great answer (applauded).  Each of us has to decide, based on our understanding of the trade, how much risk we want to take.

In this trade, I didn't want much risk.  I entered at 6.01 with my stop below 5.88-5.89.  Risk: a loss of 2% (barring a gap down).  It took me a few days to get my price, and if I hadn't gotten it, I would have passed on the trade.  In other words, I don't feel that I have to own DNDN, or any other stock.  I view it strictly from a risk/reward perspective.   

Others of you are better than I at assessing the fundamentals of DNDN, the impact of the Paris conference, etc.  Still, if you enter the stock or already have, I would suggest that you determine how much risk you want to take (where to enter...where to exit); some amount with which you are comfortable, such as Scotsman shared with us.

By the way, Scotsman, interesting info about institutional trading.  Yesterday, somebody wanted out on that drop from 6.40 to 6.00.  213,000 shares traded in that 5 minute bar, much more than average.

Final comment: Basis the linear chart, the Basonista trendline held yesterday by a few cents.

[bigdogs99999]

Wow!

Havee you guys seen how much institutional interest there has been in DNDn lately???  This is just for the past week, but the past month is intense

Is on the buy side and the sell side, and to me it looks like it is mirrored almost perfectly - one institution selling out to another??  not sure what's going on here, except we know that there are some big boys at play here already....

There has always been the theory, with the big short interest and with UBS having a vendetta against DNDN, that market capping is occurring and that either the big buyer and seller are one and the same or are partners hiding the activity by co-ordinating their sales and purchases to balance out to a net "no change in position" at the end of the day.  Would not surprise me   

[bigdogs99999]

Welcome to the thread, logocovet. 

Others of you are better than I at assessing the fundamentals of DNDN, the impact of the Paris conference, etc. 

Logo, I am long time holder and observer.  Time frame and entry point is important for DNDN.  Given the history I expect good news in Paris.  Stock price, if history holds true, will meander upwards towards the conference and may pop up the day before or of the conference, then will get walked back down by institutional traders (or if the news is good enough, a downgrade will occur).  This is a strange stock.  I am contemplating actually selling into the Paris news if a pop occurs and trying to get back in at a lower basis myself.....

[logocovet]

Thanks for everyone's input. 

This seems like an odd stock indeed.  I've been reading the Yahoo message board to get the "feel" of the investors in this stock.  I originally thought the main factor affecting the price of DNDN was whether they will have good trial results.   It seems to be much more complicated than that.  The shorts seem to rule this stock big time.  The message board was a flip side of a normal board.  The core investors were shorts. You'd think that the shorts would be covering as the Paris date neared.  But no.  One poster said he'd be shorting the stock up until the trial results and then afterwards too.  I'm keeping DNDN on watch for now. 

[Melf Elf]

We can't say that we're surprised with the lackluster action in DNDN, given the problems with MACD and the Inverted Kumo (Cloud) that we discussed at the weekend.  We also continue to have the problem of "Do we follow the log chart or the linear chart?"

Basis the log chart below, DNDN violated the Basonista trendline intraday on Monday, closed below it on Tuesday, and closed right at (now resistance) yesterday. 

Basis the linear chart, however, we've had intraday violations of the Basonista Trendline, but it looks okay.

Had the NASDAQ Composite not reversed yesterday and closed above 2074 resistance, I would have dumped DNDN.   I still might, and will post it if I do.

I'll post the linear chart and NASDAQ charts separately for easier viewing.

[Melf Elf]

Linear Chart and The Basonista Trendline.

[Melf Elf]

The NASDAQ Composite failed early this week at DOUBLE resistance at 2074, which was the bottom of the broken channel and the 200 DMA.  Yesterday, it reversed higher and closed back above the 200DMA and got back inside the channel, getting out of harm's way.

If this is going to turn into a H&S top, the top of the left shoulder is 2106.  Traditionally, the right shoulder in the pattern does not exceed the high of the left shoulder, although some technicians allow for it.

Either way, what is most important is that we don't put in any kind of right shoulder, and then break the neckline.  That could get ugly.

[ScottishTrader]

Well, as far as I can tell, DNDN hasn't invalidated our base trendline YET, but it sure better go up tomorrow, otherwise we gotta say goodbye 

Volume does seem to be low down here, and the price range is narrowing.  Lets hope that she can get a good bounce off our support, which I put at 5.94-5.95 tomorrow am.  a sustained break above 6.20 would be great, as its been consistent resistance over the last few trading days.  The 10 day 15 min chart gives a pretty good idea of whats happening, and also suggests a symmetrical triangle formation, possible with the lower descending trendline.

Well, we'll see in the morning  hope everyone is happy after quite a rough day in the woods

[Melf Elf]

Well, as far as I can tell, DNDN hasn't invalidated our base trendline YET,

Scotsman,

Right.  It violated the Basonista Trendline again intraday, but held it at the close by about two cents.

but it sure better go up tomorrow, otherwise we gotta say goodbye 

Yesterday's candlestick is a Bullish Inverted Hammer, but we need upside confirmation.  The NASDAQ Composite didn't help us at all.  It failed at next resistance above 2074, then closed back below 2074.   

[ScottishTrader]

Well it looks like DNDN broke through both the horizontal resistance at 6.20, which has been dogging us lately and the short term descending trendline.  next resistance to tackle is at 6.30, then at 6.40 - still a bit of an uphill struggle on this one.  But we should have some news from the Paris conference next week, and may see a bit of a run into that.  Hopefully it is wwhat the DNDN long-timers have been waiting for.

Anyway, here's the short term chart.

[logocovet]

I put in an order to buy 800 shares @ the open, with a 10% stop. The options on DNDN are very pricey so I decided that this is the better play.  Can't wait any longer as the Paris conference is only days away.  If I didn't buy and missed the jump due to good trial results (which they likely will be), I'd have to committ seppuku out of shame. 

Hey Scot, seem to be bumping into you everywhere, although u are ubiquitous on 3SOF.  Hope u do well !

[ScottishTrader]

Perhaps I make myself heard a little too much!!  3SOF is turning into an obsession

Well, glad you got in today, adn to be honest, if you got in at the open today, you got in at a better position than I did, and I've been sitting on this for over 2 weeks!!

Anyway, I think today's movement was really good, just setting us up for the rest of the week.  Depending on which trendline you take (from closes or highs), DNDN broke through to hit resistance at 6.30, where it closed at the high of the day   Always nice when it does that.  Having had another look at the chart this evening, I think the key area to break through and hold is the 6.45-6.55 range.  This coincides with the highs and lows of previous short term trading ranges, as well as the other (high) descending trendline.  We break that one, and I think we should have a good run into this conference announcement.

Lets all just hope we don't see the low 6s again, man that was tedious   (But saying that, when I bought in, I promised I would stick DNDN out for exactly the same reasons you mentioned earlier, so has been a nice little lesson for me in patience  )

Here's the chart as I see it - Melf Elf, where are you
(we miss your words of wisdom - have the raging villagers over at WSCI carried you away?)

[Melf Elf]

Melf Elf, where are you

Here I yam.  (we need a Popeye face on the toolbar). 

Lets all just hope we don't see the low 6s again, man that was tedious  

No kidding!  I'm tired of seeing The Basonista Trendline get violated intraday. 

I think the key area to break through and hold is the 6.45-6.55 range.

Yeah, lots of resistance overhead.  What I like about the past two weeks (although boring) is that 5.88-5.89 support has held so far, The Basonista Trendline has held on a closing basis, and we've been bulilding a base from which to attack resistance.

Resistance: (6.37 - 6.6075)

6.37 - Bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)
6.40 - September 23 low and October 17 high
6.44 - Kijun-Sen (thick red line) and October 10 and 11 highs
6.57 - Down trendline off the September 15 high
6.6075 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)

I probably will sell on a rally into resistance, and try to re-enter if it pulls back.

[logocovet]

Hi Melf Elf, welcome back.  I always like reading your posts (although alot of it goes above my head).  Just that much more to learn. 

Anyway I was reading in the Seagate thread that you said you were very bearish on this market (seems David was/is too).   When you say this, do you mean short term, mid-term, or long term?

When David first said he was very bearish on the market and reduced 3SOF to just the BRVO position, I followed and sold alot of my postions.  But now, David has over 9 positions in the portfolio.  I guess he meant that the market was bearish in the immediate short term, or didi he?

Sorry if this is off topic, but it is relevant to my willingness to take new positons. 

I'm in on DNDN @ 6.34.  Bought some for my parent's account too (thye have trusted their portfolio to my expertise  .)  Unfortunately, my parent's portfolio looks like a Greek tragedy (United Airlines, Lucent, Novell, all from before toe tech crash).  Lets hope 3SOF can help them too.   Hope the DNDN shorts start to evaculate as Paris nears.  I don't understand why UBS and others are so dedicated to their short position on DNDN considering how much they can get burned if the trials are good.  There must be more lucrative short positions to take on other biotechs.