DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

What I like about the past two weeks (although boring) is that 5.88-5.89 support has held so far, The Basonista Trendline has held on a closing basis, and we've been bulilding a base from which to attack resistance.

DNDN is doing a nice job of attacking resistance today.

Resistance: (6.37 - 6.6075)

6.37 - Bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)
6.40 - September 23 low and October 17 high
6.44 - Kijun-Sen (thick red line) and October 10 and 11 highs

We've gotten through those resistance levels, and we have a "W"-bottom breakout above 6.40-6.44, which has been key resistance llately.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=60&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

6.57 - Down trendline off the September 15 high
6.6075 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)

The breakout above 6.40-6.44 measures well above the 6.57-6.6075 resistance levels.  Conservatively, I use the right side of the "W," which is the October 19 low of 5.92.

Math:

6.40 (the middle of the "W") - 5.92 (the right leg of the "W") = 0.48 points.
0.48 points + 6.40 = Target: 6.88

NOTE: the left leg of the "W" is the October 13 low of 5.88.


If we get through 6.57-6.60 resistance, though, that's another breakout.

Looks good.  I'm still thinking about selling into the rally and trying to buy it back lower, if I can.

High so far today is 6.51.  DNDN currently is BID 6,48...ASK 6.51

[ScottishTrader]

I'm right with you Melf Elf,

currently attacking resistance at 6.50-6.51

Go DNDN

About bloody time

[Melf Elf]

Anyway I was reading in the Seagate thread that you said you were very bearish on this market (seems David was/is too).   When you say this, do you mean short term, mid-term, or long term?

Hi, logocovet!

David would have to speak for himself.  I posted my concerns for the NASDAQ on the Stock Picks Board under "INTC: Market Proxy?"   The NASDAQ was acting bearish, for the reasons that I stated.

2074  had become DOUBLE resistance.  Next resistance was 2093.  Then 2106.

On Friday, the NASDAQ traded between 2074 and 2091, right between those first two levels.  2074, being the low of the day, became SUPPORT on Friday, which was good, but we needed also to get above 2093, and then  above 2106, which was the high of a "possible" right shouler on June 23, of a "possible" H&S Top.

We cleared all of those resistance levels yesterday, which is a big relief and puts us out of danger, at least temporarily. 

When David first said he was very bearish on the market and reduced 3SOF to just the BRVO position

I don't know when David turned bearish, but I don't blame him.  Alot of stocks broke support (like STX that you mentioned).

   Unfortunately, my parent's portfolio looks like a Greek tragedy (United Airlines, Lucent, Novell, all from before toe tech crash).  Lets hope 3SOF can help them too.

I hope so, too.  Good luck! 

Go DNDN

About bloody time

It sure is about bloody time, Scotsman!   


   
   
   
   
   

[Melf Elf]

6.57 - Down trendline off the September 15 high
6.6075 - Top of the Kumo (Cloud)

Bought at 6.01.  Sold at 6.59, at the top of "last resistance."  Gain: 9.6%

Geez, I didn't think DNDN would get through ALL of the resistance levels that we discussed this morning, but it's now BID 6.70...ASK 6.71.

That's okay.  Combined with my July trade, I have a 20%+ gain in DNDN.  Meanwhile, I hope that it goes to the moon for you guys! I've had alot of fun analyzing and discussing DNDN with all of you.

Good luck!

[ScottishTrader]

Cheers Melf Elf, has been a pleasure (as always  )

I'm long on this one until the conference next week - I am pretty sure this is moving in anticipation of them announcing strong results, and will keep going until then - after all, its broken through every resistance level that has been giving us trouble for the last few weeks, so I think there's more to come.

Only time will tell

Good trading though

[bigdogs99999]

Hi guys,
I have been enjoying your hard work though silent the last couple of weeks.  As the non-chartist long time observer, I suggest that you throw your charts out the window.  This stock will rise until the conference, but it so far has always sold off hard afterwards ... no matter what the technicals might suggest.  Good luck ... I have a bunch of this stuff and am happy to see the run start!

[logocovet]

Hope this is the start of the short squeeze.  I can't see the shorts being able to cover almost 14 million shares before the Paris conference (Oct 31- Nov 3).  And there won't be many sellers for them to buy from.  What long would see this position right before the conference?

Thanks for the analysis on the Nasdaq, Melf Elf.  It's interesting how 2 technicians looking at the same chart can see 2 completely different market directions.  If you're interested, this is the link of a good analysis that is contrary to yours:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/bigideastocks/message/2621

Good luck wit DNDN everyone!

[bigdogs99999]

Stock price needs to move up considerably ... my guess ... to squeeze.  Though the short interest is huge, I suspect that a lot of shorting occurred when the stock was north of $10.  That is when the number of shares short rose dramatically. 

[Melf Elf]

Thanks for the analysis on the Nasdaq, Melf Elf.  It's interesting how 2 technicians looking at the same chart can see 2 completely different market directions.

logocovet,

Yeah, it is.  I couldn't tell which way we were going, so I was in cautiion mode until that became a little clearer. 

If you're interested, this is the link of a good analysis that is contrary to yours:

Thanks for the link.  It didn't work since I'm not a member, so I don't know if the analyst to whom you refer is bullish or bearish, but no matter.

To summarize...my opinion is that the NASDAQ was starting to act bearish when it broke the channel, took out June support at 2039 (see chart) then couldn't get back above the 200DMA and back into the channel.

Now that it has, it's okay, as long as we don't break the recent low, which would look like an ugly H&S Top. 

I suggest that you throw your charts out the window.

Never!   

Remember that the charts didn't "tell me" to sell.  In fact, the breakout above 6.40 this morning targeted 6.88, which I posted earlier.  The decision to sell at the top of the resistance  that I outlined this morning was my own decision, not anything that the chart "told me" to do.  Some times that works out, and  I can re-enter at a lower price...sometimes it doesn't, like today. 

Just wanted to clarify the fact that when we're looking at charts, it's up to us to make make buy/sell decisions.  The chart just gives us the "lines in the sand."  Look how long the 6.40-6.44 "line in the sand"...."line of scrimmage" acted as resistance.

If I had sold DNDN at resistance at any other time since I bought the stock two weeks ago, I easily could have gotten back in at a lower price.  This time, it didn't work out.  Just want to make the point that analyzing a chart is a very different process from "How are you going to choose to play it?  Entry?  Stop?  Exit? 

See what I mean?

Meanwhile...congratulations guys...what a great day DNDN had!  I'm really glad that all of you are making some $$$, and hope that you make lots more on this one!

[basonista]

Thanks for your sage advice here and elsewhere on 3sof, Melf!  And don't ever throw your charts out the window!!!   They are about the only thing even resembling a crystal ball that we have on the markets.

[ScottishTrader]

I fully agree thhat there is nothing wrong with taking profits at a point where you determine it is appropriate.  I did exactly the same thing today with HEB, after seeing it top out at 2.75 in the morning, hover in the 2.60s and then break 2.60, I decided it was time to lock in profits.  No sooner did I sell, then HEB decided that it didn't like the 2.50s after all and jumped back up to 2.65.  I'm very glad though, because at this point I realised that my sale was a mistake, forgot about the few pennies of lost profits, and jumped back in, and boy am I glad that I did!!

There are always reasons to take profits, to buy and sell (I mean for every buyer there's a seller out there!!), but it is your own choice as to whether you want that more than being in to see where it will go in the next hour/day/week.  And if it still looks bullish, just get back in.  Sure, if you had stayed in and not sold out, you'd be seeing the interim gain too, but as Melf Elf said, you can also time it to get a pull back, and as long as its going up, you're making money.

So here's to making more money on DNDN, it has been quite a day for a lot of people on 3SOF, I'm sure - just look at the runs in DNDN, HEB, NVAX, AVII, GIGA, VICL to name but a few.

See you all tomorrow for more fun, yee ha

[bigdogs99999]

I don't want you guys to throw out your charts either!  You are helping me immensely and if I had enough posts would applaud you both.     Just a warning not to get suckered  into buying what might look like a very bullish breakout move this week ... the breakouts can look good but be false pretty easily on this stock.  I paid too much for my shares (I have a small profit after today, but my buy point and reasoning were a mistake)  by waiting for a perceived breakout to buy and before I had observed the stock long enough.   Keep charting for me guys - THANKS!!!   

[logocovet]

DNDN has announced results for its most recent trial.  They seem to corroborate the previous trial. However, no gap up this morning and stock has actually gone down a little after the open.  I guess the shorts have been able to keep it down (short interest has actually increased in the last month).

UBS will likely come out to say that the results are flawed and the FDA will require another trial.  Bank of America has yet to come out with an opinion.  They can go either way (hopefully, they were waiting on this trial to come up with an opinion and will come out in favor of DNDN).

Many on the DNDN Yahoo Message Board is also awaiting a possible partner for DNDN.  I'm sure any potential partners are also reviewing the trial results.

Stockpicker, since you started the original thread, can you interpret the trial results?  Thanks.

This is the link:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051031/nym066a.html?.v=1

[ScottishTrader]

I think we should just give it a little time...   and stick with the trading plan.  Mine continues to be to hold unless it breaks ascending support, which currently sits around 6.05.  I will be very uncomfortable, however, if we see a move below 6.20, although I doubt that will happen.  I think that once the shorts are through this morning, DNDN should rip.  The results are excellent, which should be plain to see, and put DNDN squarely on track to getting this drug to market.  Should have more news about this by weeks end.  Just keep an eye on it this week 

[Melf Elf]

Bought at 6.01.  Sold at 6.59, at the top of "last resistance."  Gain: 9.6%

Bought DNDN back at 6.42, in the former 6.40 - 6.44 resistance area.  Stop: a close below The Basonista Trendline, at about 6.09 for today.  Risk: a loss of about 5%, which guarantees me a profit on the two trades, barring a gap down below my stop.

DNDN has been trading down for a few days, and it's now at a support area from the down trendline and the Kumo.

DNDN currently is BID 6.39...ASK 6.40