CENX - Sector: Basic Materials--- Industry: Aluminum

[setravis]

Profile:  

 
Century Aluminum Co.
2511 Garden Road
Building A Suite 200
Monterey, CA 93940
United States - Map
Phone: 831-642-9300
Fax: 831-657-1299
Web Site: http://www.centuryaluminum.com

DETAILS  
Index Membership: S&P 600 SmallCap
S&P 1500 Super Comp
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Aluminum
Full Time Employees: 1,370


BUSINESS SUMMARY  
Century Aluminum Company, through its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum in the United States and internationally. The company offers molten aluminum, as well as standard-grade ingot, extrusion billet, and other value-added primary aluminum products. It also holds 50 percent joint venture interests in the Gramercy alumina refinery, located in Gramercy, Louisiana and a related bauxite mining operation in Jamaica. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Monterey, California.

[setravis]

Is Aluminum the World's Worst Business?
March 17, 2009


I wonder if the executives at Alcoa (NYSE: AA) thank their lucky stars each evening that they were unsuccessful two years ago in their effort to acquire their Canadian rival and former sibling, Alcan.

As you probably recall, the north-of-the-border company went to London-based Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), which now is being bogged down by debt taken on in the transaction. Nevertheless, while a number of resources and commodities have begun to slowly retrieve their sea legs -- I'll count oil and copper among those being slowly strengthened -- the plight of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa is a prime example that the aluminum markets remain fragile. Indeed, that state of affairs is causing the company to chop its dividend, cut costs in whatever way it can, and attempt to raise cash in the form of stock and notes.

On the stock side, and after recently laying off 15,000 employees, the company will shrink its payout to $0.03 a share, from the previous $0.17. The cut represents the first time in more than a quarter-century that Alcoa has reduced its payout. The savings from the reduction are expected to amount to $400 million annually. There is also the possibility that another round of layoffs could be in the company's future.

Beyond that, once-proud Alcoa is targeting a series of cost-cutting efforts that it hopes will retain another $2.4 billion in its cash kitty. And the company's capex is targeted for a reduction to $850 million from $1.8 billion -- or about 53% less than it spent last year.

On the security issuance front, management has visions of selling at least 150 million shares of common stock, with the possibility that another 22.5 million could be added. Beyond that, the offering could include $250 million in convertible notes. (The company's shares closed Monday at $6.12 and were down about another $0.50, or more than 8%, at midday on Tuesday.)

However, as Alcoa emerges from its multi-faceted approach to cutting costs and raising funds, the aluminum business clearly isn't the place to hang your hat these days. Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) has plummeted from nearly $80 a share in May to a Monday close at $1.54. During about the same time, Kaiser Aluminum (Nasdaq: KALU) has plunged from above $75 to slightly below $19. And Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) has similarly slid to about $24 from above $78 in July.

The obvious message here for my Foolish friends: Stay as far removed from the aluminum business (and investments therein) as your legs will carry you. 

Or do we

[setravis]

Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP Commences Class Action Lawsuit on Behalf of Century Aluminum Company Investors
Tuesday March 17, 2009, 4:47 pm EDT


NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--On March 12, 2009, Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP filed a class action lawsuit in the United States District Court, Northern District of California, on behalf of all persons who purchased or acquired the shares of Century Aluminum Company ("Century Aluminum" or the "Company") [NASDAQ:CENX] pursuant or traceable to the Company's January 28, 2009 Secondary Offering (the "Secondary Offering" or the "Class Period") against the Company, certain officers and directors, and the underwriters pursuant to Sections 11, 12(a)(2), and 15 of the Securities Act, 15 U.S.C. §§ 77k, 77l(a)(2) and 77o (the "Class").

The case name is styled Abrams v. Century Aluminum Company, et al. A copy of the complaint filed in this action is available from the Court, or can be viewed on the Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP website at www.whafh.com.

On or about January 29, 2009, the Company completed its Secondary Offering in which it sold 24.5 million shares and received proceeds of approximately $104.7 million. In connection with the Secondary Offering, the Company issued a registration statement and prospectus (together, the "Secondary Offering Documents") which incorporated by reference the Company's financial results for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2008, June 30, 2008 and September 30, 2008.

The Complaint alleges that the Secondary Offering Documents were materially false and misleading because it failed to include the information contained in the Company's 8-K of March 2, 2009 that the initially reported cash flows associated with the termination of forward financial sales contracts by issuing $929 million of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock were improperly reported "on a net basis as an operating activity" rather than "on a gross presentation basis as both an operating activity and a financing activity to reflect the cash receipts and disbursements associated the transaction." Century Aluminum's 8-K also reported that, as a result of this improper accounting, the financial statements reported in the Form 10-Q for three quarters in 2008 "should no longer be relied upon."

As a direct and proximate result of the conduct engaged in by each of the defendants in issuing materially false and misleading Secondary Offering documents, plaintiff and the other members of the Class have sustained substantial damage in connection with the purchase of the securities issued pursuant to or traceable to the Offering Documents.

If you purchased Century Aluminum shares pursuant to or traceable to the Secondary Offering, you may request that the Court appoints you as lead plaintiff no later than May 8, 2009. A lead plaintiff is a representative party that acts on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation. In order to be appointed lead plaintiff, the Court must determine that the class member's claim is typical of the claims of other class members, and that the class member will adequately represent the class. Under certain circumstances, one or more class members may together serve as "lead plaintiff." Your ability to share in any recovery is not, however, affected by the decision whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff. You may retain Wolf Haldenstein, or other counsel of your choice, to serve as your counsel in this action.

Wolf Haldenstein has extensive experience in the prosecution of securities class actions and derivative litigation in state and federal trial and appellate courts across the country. The firm has approximately 70 attorneys in various practice areas; and offices in Chicago, New York City, San Diego, and West Palm Beach. The reputation and expertise of this firm in shareholder and other class litigation has been repeatedly recognized by the courts, which have appointed it to major positions in complex securities multi-district and consolidated litigation.

If you wish to discuss this action or have any questions, please contact Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP at 270 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016, by telephone at (800) 575-0735 (Robert Abrams, Esq., or Derek Behnke), via e-mail at [email protected] or visit our website at www.whafh.com. All e-mail correspondence should make reference to Century Aluminum.


Contact:
Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman & Herz LLP
Robert Abrams, Esq., or Derek Behnke
(800) 575-0735
[email protected]
www.whafh.com

[setravis]

Speculative (Long Recommendation)
Down from $80/share.
Should survive -- probably a 5 bagger in a year.

52wk Range: 1.04 - 80.52
Volume: 5,377,048
Avg Vol (3m): 3,018,700

Technicals
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
25.74%above 13-day MA
-50.99%below 50-day MA
RS Rating: 2 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $111.81 
P/E Ratio: 33.24 
PEG Ratio: -0.07 
Next Earnings: 04/16/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

[setravis]

U.S. Economy: Manufacturing, Confidence Increase...

May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Measures of U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence last month unexpectedly jumped to their highest levels since the credit crisis intensified in September, indicating the economy is on the mend.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 40.1 from 36.3 in March; readings less than 50 signal a contraction. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment jumped by the most in more than two years, climbing to 65.1.

The figures may be the clearest signal yet that Federal Reserve and Obama administration efforts to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending are starting to pay off. The worst economic slump in at least half a century is still likely to persist for months as companies from Caterpillar Inc. to Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. continue to cut back.

"The recession's end may be drawing closer," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. "This is clearly good news and policy makers and the president's economics team will breathe a sigh of relief."

U.S. stocks rose helped by the confidence and manufacturing figures. The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed up 0.5 percent at 877.52. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to 3.15 percent at 4:53 p.m. in New York from 3.12 percent late yesterday.

Factory Orders

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed factory orders dipped in March after a February gain, suggesting any manufacturing recovery is likely to be gradual.

Companies cut stockpiles last quarter at the fastest pace on record, bringing forward the day when production and employment stabilize and help right the world's largest economy.

Economists forecast the ISM's manufacturing measure would increase to 38.4, according to the median of 67 projections. Estimates ranged from 35 to 42.2. The Michigan sentiment index was projected to rise to 61.9, according to the median of 52 estimates. Forecasts ranged from 57.3 to 64.

The ISM's gauge of new orders climbed to 47.2, the highest level since August, from 41.2 the prior month, and the measure of export orders improved to 44 from 39. The production gauge increased to 40.4 from 36.4.

'Encouraging' Report

"This is the first report we've seen in quite some time we can call very encouraging," Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM factory survey, said in a conference call from Atlanta. "It certainly looks like the worst is over."

The group's employment index rose to 34.4 from 28.1.

The Labor Department is scheduled to release its April employment report on May 8. U.S. employers may have eliminated more than 600,000 jobs for a fifth consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The consumer sentiment gauge rose from 57.3 in March, posting the biggest gain since October 2006. The index reached a three-decade low of 55.3 in November.

Record-low mortgage rates, cheaper gasoline and surging stock prices are providing some relief to the beleaguered American consumer in the face of mounting unemployment and tumbling home prices.

Christina Romer, head of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, told lawmakers yesterday that "glimmers of hope" for an economic recovery were emerging. Still, she added, "in the short run, we are still in for more bad news."

Slump Deepened

The U.S. economy contracted at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, worse than economists forecast, marking the weakest performance since 1957-1958. Inventories dropped at a record $103.7 billion rate in the first three months of the year, which some economists said may set the stage for better results this quarter.

Consumer spending rose at a 2.2 percent pace last quarter following its longest slump in nearly three decades. Still, economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of April forecast spending will slump again in the second quarter before picking up in the second half.

Automakers have been the worst hit among manufacturers. Chrysler yesterday proceeded with a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing to reorganize into a more viable carmaker in a partnership with Italy's Fiat SpA.

Chrysler will idle most of its factories on May 4 while in court because suppliers are halting shipments. Regular production may resume when the company emerges, or sooner if it resolves supply issues, Tom LaSorda, a company president said yesterday. LaSorda also announced his retirement.

Replenish Stocks

Still, cutbacks in inventories are helping others. Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, said yesterday global demand has improved each month since December and customers have now used up their stockpiles. Its shares rose the most in at least 28 years in New York trading.

"There are some signs that the pace of global economic decline is moderating," Dow's Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said in a statement. "It's prudent to expect that 2009 will still be a recessionary year globally, and we are not counting on material improvements in economic conditions in the near term."

[setravis]

10 million shares says something's up...besides the stock price...Volume don't lie!
Buyout rumor coming

Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal) Pattern
Breakout...

The Head and Shoulders bottom is referred to sometimes as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action forming both Head and Shoulders Top and Head and Shoulders Bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom

Head and Shoulder Bottoms are one of the most common and reliable reversal formations. It is important to remember that they occur after a downtrend and usually mark a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. Shoulders can be different widths as well as different heights. Keep in mind that technical analysis is more an art than a science. If you are looking for the perfect pattern, it may be a long time coming.

Analysis of the Head and Shoulders Bottom should focus on correct identification of neckline resistance and volume patterns. These are two of the most important aspects to a successful read, and by extension a successful trade. The neckline resistance breakout combined with an increase in volume indicates an increase in demand at higher prices. Buyers are exerting greater force, and the price is being affected.

Measuring the expected length of the advance after the breakout can be helpful, but don't count on it for your ultimate target. As the pattern unfolds over time, other aspects of the technical picture are likely to take precedent. Technical analysis is dynamic, and your analysis should incorporate aspects of the long-, medium- and short-term picture.

[setravis]

CENX will go to double digits soon...JMHO of course.
It is priced way too cheap at this time. It could be a potential take over stock.




Target is $20 in three months.......
Looking to increase my position on any good dip, hope todays CENX results have the desired effect over the next couple of days.

52wk Range: 1.04 - 80.52
Volume: 13,041,262
Avg Vol (3m): 4,288,790

Technicals
13-day EMA Cross Above 50-day MA 
Most Actives
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
81.42%above 13-day MA
89.60%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 87 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $392.20 
P/E Ratio: 33.24 
PEG Ratio: -0.19 
Next Earnings: 07/16/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Market Perform

[setravis]

    
updated chart look...

[setravis]

updated chart look...


52wk Range: 1.04 - 62.45
Volume: 7,009,372
Avg Vol (3m): 5,748,250

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
19.67%above 13-day MA
29.06%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $541.36 
P/E Ratio: 33.24 
PEG Ratio: -0.25 
Next Earnings: 10/20/2009
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

[setravis]

Speculative (Long Recommendation)
Down from $80/share.
Should survive -- probably a 5 bagger in a year.

Updated chart look...
The Golden Cross !

[setravis]

updated chart look... 

[setravis]

updated chart look...

[setravis]

Speculative (Long Recommendation)
Down from $80/share.
Should survive -- probably a 5 bagger in a year.

Updated chart look...
The Golden Cross !

Understatement.......
From mid March 2009...700%

[setravis]

CENX which began an official breakout about 10 Dec. 2009

52wk Range: 1.04 - 15.44
Volume: 9,319,217
Avg Vol (3m): 5,333,890

Technicals
Record Price High

Last Price Quote is:
21.70%above 13-day MA
42.93%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 94 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,426.81 
P/E Ratio: 33.24 
PEG Ratio: -0.77 
Next Earnings: 02/18/2010
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

[setravis]

Down from $80/share.
Should survive -- probably a 5 bagger in a year

And a "5 Bagger she became!" 
The run up...
Looking at the 1 year chart