SVA

[David Randolph]

There were no new technical or fundamental developments on SVA's Friday session.

The tema indicator stands at $2.93 and rising. I will continue to hold SVA.

[bigdogs99999]

Another good pick.  Some national news today of interest.  Relevant portions below.  Dave

GENEVA (Reuters) - Margaret Chan, responsible for helping defend the world against an influenza pandemic that could kill millions, says an outbreak of bird flu among humans may be imminent, but there is still time to act.

"We have a window of opportunity to prevent a pandemic or at least delay the spread of a pandemic," Chan, chief of pandemic influenza preparedness at the
World Health Organization (WHO), told Reuters.

The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, which returned late last year, has killed 63 in Asia, mainly in Vietnam and Thailand. It has also struck flocks in six Russian regions and Kazakhstan.

So far there has been no sustained human-to-human transmission, according to the WHO, a
United Nations agency.

But from experience, Chan, 58, knows that it is important to act quickly. As head of Hong Kong's health department in 1997, when bird flu made the first jump to humans, she within days ordered the entire poultry population of 1.5 million birds slaughtered.

Her warning now comes as avian flu has spread across Asia and to Europe's doorstep.

"Buying time will allow us to fast-track pandemic vaccine production. It will allow governments to put in place a host of emergency public health measures that will reduce mortality and morbidity, and social and economic disruption," Chan said in an interview.

But WHO and other experts fear the bird flu virus will mutate or mix its genetic material with seasonal human flu -- which kills up to 500,000 people a year -- creating a deadly pandemic strain that could spread rapidly across continents.

The diminutive doctor, who began her career as a teacher before earning a medical degree in Ontario, Canada, is working hard to convince all governments to ramp up their defenses.

Forecasts predict more than 25 million hospital admissions and up to 7 million deaths globally within a short period.

"This is perhaps the only time since 1968, which was the last pandemic, that we are getting signs, symptoms and warnings from nature ... More and more birds are dying in different parts of the world -- this is the kind of signals and early warnings that we are referring to," she told reporters in late July.

Urgently preparing for an outbreak should save lives.

Chan called for countries to "put a life to these plans," by carrying out simulation and desk-top exercises.

Vaccines are the "best intervention" but exactly which virus will emerge as the pandemic strain is not known yet. And global manufacturing capacity, 300 million doses, won't be enough.

________________
China was widely blamed for concealing the initial scale of the SARS contagion, which eventually infected more than 8,000 people worldwide and killed more than 800.

Chan, asked whether secretive or authoritarian regimes were open to cooperation ahead of a pandemic, replied: "Countries have improved since SARS. They understand the importance of responding and being as prompt and transparent as possible."

"The lesson I learned from previous outbreaks is a local public health issue can become an international issue because of the volume of travel in terms of people, goods and services," she said.

[AussieTrader]

NIce day for SVA with a good close and now sitting perhaps at a pivotal point from a technical perspective.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your fundamental and technical information 

SVA has a strong fundamental background and the trend remains bullish. There are no motives to sell the stock. The tema indicator for today is standing at $2.98 and rising, so I will continue to hold the stock.

[David Randolph]

The market was down heavy, but SVA rose 4.3% to a new high, as it should, given its defensive position (I mean defensive in a way that it is and will be a growth stock even if the global economy slackens).

White candle, new high, volume above average. Tema is coming up, but still below the stock price, so the trend is bullish and I will continue holding SVA.

[Michael]

Once again bullish news for SVA:

Drugs plug gap as world awaits bird flu vaccine

14 Sep 2005 01:02:16 GMT
Source: Reuters


By Ben Hirschler

LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Scientists believe they have the know-how to make an effective vaccine against pandemic bird flu; the problem is how to make enough of it.........

"If you need to vaccinate the whole world, you are not going to do that with existing capacity, which is basically aimed at the over-65s in the West," said Tony Colegate of Chiron Corp <CHIR.O>, who coordinates production issues for the Influenza Vaccine Supply Task Force, an international industry group.

Adding new production will take time, raising fears that many poor parts of the world are likely to go without.

At present, 90 percent of capacity is concentrated in Europe and North America, and the World Health Organization (WHO) says past experience suggests governments will be reluctant to release supplies for export before domestic demand is fully met.

There will also be a hiatus of four to six months while factories switch to making a pandemic version, once a new strain of humanized bird flu is identified.

You can read the rest of the article here: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L26432038.htm .

It seems like SVA's new production facilities will come in handy 

I like to compare SVA and AOB. They both operates in the Chiness Health sector, which is growing even more rapidly than the chiness Economy. They both have strong ties to the Government. They have both executed very attractive acquisitions etc.

But they have more in common than the fundamentals. Both the charts are also very strong:



SVA is advancing under strong volume and consolidating under low volume similar to AOB. MA50 is making a golden cross with MA200.

The stock is in a strong up trend but is still not overbought. I will therefore add to my position during the first hour of trading today.

Mike

[valueseeker]

This is from YH MB:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1609752963&tid=sva&sid=1609752963&mid=2865

----------------------------

About a week ago, I talked to Craig, SVA's IR person since June. I've been too busy to post and even now I will be brief. Here are some significant points:

1. News has been backed up because he wants the next PR to be the financials for the first half of 2005. There are no problems, but the acctg. firm has been slow to complete things. He hopes to see improved timeliness in the future and a move to quarterly reporting.

2. Once the financials are out, it sounds like multiple news releases will follow soon after.

3. A critical point for him is the end of this month (Sept. 30?---not sure of the exact date) when they will present at the UBS conference in NYC. (If you remember, last year's conference was poorly handled and pretty disappointing.) I inferred that some concrete news will be released at that time.

4. We didn't get into specifics about the status of each of the products, except that he feels that EVERYTHING is proceeding well. The areas in which I would like to (and hope to) see news soon are Bilive sales, Anflu kick-off, SARS Phase 2 (or whatever), and perhaps overseas sales. I got a sense from him that at least some of this news is imminent.

5. He also implied that there would be significant news about the avian flu vaccine very soon. He seemed very excited even while he acknowledged that this product has been overhyped. I was somewhat encouraged, though (as you know if you've read my recent posts), I remain skeptical about whether SVA will ever make a yuan off of bird flu.

6. He stressed that he has nothing to do with pump newsletters and the like. He can't stop them but has done nothing to aid or encourage them either.

7. He had no concrete information, but hopes that the Wang stuff will be put behind SVA. It sounds to me that he is consistently advising Yin and others to improve fiscal and management practices to meet intl. standards.

All in all a very encouraging phone call. I hope I've reported it fairly and accurately.

Dan

[David Randolph]

Thanks Dan, great info 

SVA = $3.72 > TEMA = $3.07 => HOLD SVA

[David Randolph]

It seems we've had a false breakout on SVA. Volume, being weaker on this breakout than on the last time the stock was at this level, was signaling this could happen. So we can expect some short term declines to happen on SVA, if there are no developments on the fundamental side.

I'm a bit afraid of considering the TEMA indicator for hold/sell decisions, instead of the ascending trendline. You see, TEMA isn't known for many people, but everybody that wants to buy on support knows the ascending trendline will probably be the right entry point.

Anyway, I'll hold the stock for now and if it approaches the supports we're considering I'll decide then which one is the best to base my decision.

[David Randolph]

We've had the lowest volume day on SVA for almost 2 months, just 90,000 shares traded on Friday. The tema indicator for tomorrow will be standing at $3.13 and the ascending moving average $3.03. I'll continue holding the stock, despite of the apparent lack of interest from investors, the trend is still clearly bullish.

[valueseeker]

New website just came out:

http://sinovac.com/

Hopefully news & financials coming out soon.

[coolwood]

Thanks for the site info.  Did you read the (RISKS RELATED TO SINOVAC'S FINANCIAL CONDITION).  That will get you pumped up - NOT. lol   

[valueseeker]

I think much of the $4.5M loss they incurred in 2004 was due to stock option (>$4M). They might be already profitable in 2005.

Chinese banks usually give loans out to companies at SVA's stage. So they may not need to take a dilution. I wouldn't be surprise the government finance some of the SARS vaccine R&D, if you notice the visits of the President of China and Head of Chinese FDA to SVA.

At $136M valuation, this company has much to grow.

[Michael]

Let's hope that the scenario below is a bit over the edge but with the recent deaths in Indonesia it seems more and more likely that we will face a pandemic in the future.

Bird Flu Could Cause Global Economic Catastrophe
by Geoffrey Lean 

September 19, 2005  

Bird flu threatens to cause a "catastrophic" economic crash in Britain and around the world, unprecedented in modern times, according to new research.

Two studies from Nottingham University and the Bank of Montreal in Canada show that a flu pandemic - described by the World Health Organisation last week as inevitable - would slash at least £95bn from British GDP, extinguish at least 900,000 jobs and create a global depression to rival that of the 1930s.

They come as world leaders attending the United Nations summit last week began to recognise the scale of the potential threat from the influenza virus, codenamed H5N1, which has reached the borders of Europe.

President George Bush has launched an International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, under which countries - including the US, Britain, Australia, Canada, China and Russia - and UN agencies will pool resources and expertise to try to head it off. His administration announced that health ministers from around the world would shortly meet in Canada to back the initiative.

Bird flu, which originated in China and South-east Asia, is being spread by migrating wildfowl, infecting domestic poultry. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation warned this month that it will reach every continent. Last week Russia reported a third outbreak among chickens in Chelyabinsk in the Urals, on Europe's doorstep.

So far about 60 people are known to have died from the virus, about half of those infected. Experts fear that it will mutate to spread rapidly among people, killing tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions worldwide. Last week Dr Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organisation, said the mutation was inevitable and "just an issue of timing". Publicly the Government says that more than 50,000 people are likely to die in Britain, but privately it is preparing for up to 750,000 deaths. Earlier this year Professor Hugh Pennington, one of the country's experts, said that the British death toll could reach two million.

The Nottingham University study was commissioned for an edition of the ITV programme Tonight with Trevor McDonald, which will be screened tomorrow and features The Independent on Sunday's campaigning coverage of the issue.

The study used a giant computer model of the British economy. It found that even a relatively mild pandemic, with 50,000 deaths, would cut Britain's GDP by a staggering 8 per cent or £95bn, cost 941,000 jobs, and "affect every aspect of life in Britain".

Professor Thea Sinclair, who led the research, says that a more serious pandemic, killing hundreds of thousands or millions of Britons, would have "truly catastrophic" effects on the economy.

SVA's new vaccine production facilities might litterally be worth their weight in Gold in case of a serious outbreak. As said let's hope that this will not be the case but I get more and more confident in my investment with each new case reported.

[AussieTrader]

Unortunately the bad news relating to Avian flu and pandemics etc becoming a reality are good news for stocks holders. SVA certainly reacting today to the discussion at the UN. $3.98 zone is resistance right now throgh that and we could see a run to $4.45 highs. I would like to see $4 become support for consolidation. I am also holding NVAX for the same reasoning.
This story is not going to go away anytime soon