SVA

[basonista]

Bravo! = BRVO.ob

[shawFund]

For SVA, never buy it if it already runs up big like the case today (two days in a row).

The risk-reward ratio is against you. I may miss the potential profit but I don't want to take the bigger risk. It is always related to probability.

There is > 80% of chance once you bought at the high, it will go back to earth and
put lot of pressure on you.

Most likely you can buy it at less than $5.50 in next few days (this may not happen but the chance that it will drop to less than $5.5 in next week or two is very high).

I have bought SVA few time all at the time when it touches the ascending trendline
(10 day EMA for me)

such as $4.00 on Sept 28,  $3.85 on Sept 23, $3.57 on Sept 16, and $3.10 on Sept 2.

I will sell it when it run up big in 1-2 days. In 9 of 10 times, it does pull back later.

[shawFund]

SVA run is quite similiar to its previous run in that both started at $1.75. Last time after its three-day big run to almost $7.00, it reversed.

Look at the chart for last run from Jan 2004 - Aug 2004:

[shawFund]

And its run this year.

It may have some additional room. But if you cannot stay with the monitors, it may surprise you when you check the stock in the second morning.

Of course, it may continue going up to double digits.
But when all the good news are out, the time may come for the big players to dump their holdings to the small investors. Once the stock is down, it will down big in one day.

[Michael]

BRAVO? 

Now that is the art of stock picking. If you go back on all the good picks on 3SOF they all started with a good story (to quote shawfund). The art is to pick those where the story is backed up with strong fundamentals. SFP (to take another 3SOF pick) is a case where the story was great but the fundamentals were dreadful.

I believe that the Bravo story is based on strong fundamentals. It might have good times and bad times but three months from now I think it will have done great (please remember that the 3SOF entry is much lower than reflected in the portfolio (David made one of his amazing stunts when he sold high and bought back in again cheap!).

I admire those like David and Shawfund who can do that successfully but you will often find that they miss the long and consistent move (as David did with VPHM and AOB).

[Se7en]

Thought you meant another stock, I know BRVO.OB, but i'm not in it... yet.

Guys, what's your take on a previous 3SOF pick HOM??
Tia!

[Michael]

SVA run is quite similiar to its previous run in that both started at $1.75. Last time after its three-day big run to almost $7.00, it reversed.

Look at the chart for last run from Jan 2004 - Aug 2004:

Shawfund,

Overbought is a funny expression. A stock can be overbought because the fundamentals are extremely strong. Try to take a second look at SVA from June to august 2004. You will see it was overbought during the whole period. If history is going to repeat itself SVA is going to reverse when it is at 20.

I think that it is time to buy stocks like SVA when governments start to be concerned about the supply of vaccines and if you read the news it is not only governments it is also WHO and grassroot organisations. That was not the case back in 2004.

I might be wrong - but SVA is not one of the stocks that keeps me awake at night 

Here is the longterm SVA chart for easy reference:

Mike

[Michael]

I am not condoning behavior like this (in fact I think it is absolutely disgusting) but try to read the article below from WSJ. You might wonder what commercial interest is taken care of.

I think it is pretty clear - keeping in mind that the Chinese Government is sponsoring SVA's development of a Bird Flu vaccine:

Sharing Of Bird-Flu Data

Global Health Officials Say China Puts Scientific Credit Over Public-Health Threat

By NICHOLAS ZAMISKA
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 30, 2005

For months, global health officials have been asking China for samples of bird-flu virus it has collected, eager to study them for any signs of mutation that might signal a human pandemic in the making.

Now, one reason for the delay is becoming clearer: academic rivalry.

According to officials at the World Health Organization and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, senior health officials in the Chinese government are reluctant to share virus samples that might help propel their own scientists to acclaim.

"They want to get the international scientific recognition that they think they deserve," said Juan Lubroth, senior officer of the animal-health service for the FAO.

Dr. Lubroth was one of several high-level officials from the WHO and FAO who flew late in August to Beijing, the country's capital, and Harbin, where the main laboratory is located, to try to convince the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture to hand over the samples. He added that while the Chinese were "extremely forthcoming" in some areas, "we didn't leave with the [genetic] sequence in our pocket, much less with the virus." WHO says it still is waiting to hear back from the Chinese officials.

There are many reasons the Chinese might be reluctant to share the samples. While the country has grown significantly more cooperative on public-health matters since it drew criticism for initially covering up an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in late 2002 and early 2003, Beijing remains reluctant to share sensitive data.

The stalemate also casts a rare light on the highly competitive world of microbiology, where professional success is sometimes at odds with public health. What might have seemed a benign display of academic egotism in another context could pose a serious threat, some experts say, since the samples may hold important clues to how the virus is, or isn't, evolving.

In recent years, a particularly lethal strain of avian influenza has infected and killed an increasing number of humans who have come into contact with sick birds. Since late 2003, 60 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia have died from the disease.

While the virus hasn't yet shown any sign of spreading readily from human to human, scientists fear it could mutate into a form that can do just that, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions world-wide.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has appointed one of the WHO's most senior experts to lead the coordination of a global response to bird flu and a possible human pandemic, the U.N. health agency announced Thursday. Mr. Annan selected David Nabarro, WHO's top health-crisis official, who has held several leadership positions within the agency, including on malaria, environmental health, food safety and most recently in crisis operations.

In China, the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute is taking the lead in studying samples isolated from outbreaks among migratory and domestic fowl this year in the country's remote western provinces of Qinghai, Xinjiang and Tibet. The lab has sequenced at least some of the genetic code of the virus and has run tests using the virus on chickens, ducks and mice, a person familiar with the research said. The Chinese researchers plan to publish a paper in a scientific journal in the coming months, the person said

The Chinese say they plan to share the samples at some point, adding they shouldn't be held to a higher standard than some laboratories in other countries that hoard scientific data.

"We will share," said one of the Chinese scientists involved with the research. "You can ask the American labs, when they get samples, how long it will take for them to share the samples? We've had a lot of problems. We never get samples from American labs."

When asked the reason for the delay in turning over the specimens, a representative of the Ministry of Agriculture said negotiations are under way and that when the organization shared its samples last year, the intellectual property of Chinese research institutes wasn't protected in certain cases. The official didn't elaborate.

As for China's academic ambitions, the official said: "Scientists of all countries hope to gain a competitive edge in academic research," adding that "scholars around the world have the similar tendency. ... We think that the academic research has to conform to the general situation of public health and safety."

The Chinese have discussed the Harbin lab's research with international authorities, who declined to disclose details of that research.

China isn't alone in taking heat for failing to share information about flu viruses. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta was taken to task by an article in last week's issue of the journal Nature, which quoted frustrated researchers complaining that the agency was reluctant to share its databases of flu-virus sequences. In the Nature article, an official at the CDC said the need for openness "must be balanced against the needs for maintaining high standards for data quality and for protecting sensitive information when the situation warrants."

At the meeting with the delegates seeking the samples, Jia Youling, China's chief veterinary officer, voiced concerns that his country's laboratories and scientists might not get the proper credit for research they were conducting if the samples were released too soon, according to international health officials present at the meeting.

Dr. Jia declined to comment for this article, saying he didn't want to become embroiled in a war of words.

In July, Dr. Jia publicly chastised Guan Yi, a flu scientist at the University of Hong Kong, for what he called Dr. Guan's reluctance to come forward with bird-flu results that could have public-health implications.

"If your only motive is to publish a paper, while ignoring the interests of local people and failing to report cases in a timely manner -- perhaps even helping trigger an epidemic -- can you live with that on your conscience?" Dr. Jia said in an interview at the time with The Wall Street Journal.

At the time, Dr. Guan brushed off the criticism, pointing out that China was only beginning to catch on to a threat from a virus that he has been studying for years. "They're playing games," he said.

Write to Nicholas Zamiska at [email protected]

[valueseeker]

Bullish stocks that are overbought can remain in overbought region for a long time.

I cannot give a true value of SVA's market cap. The last time I owned a flu shot stock was IDBE (similar stage to SVA) and it was bought for US$1.3B a few weeks back, and today's SVA's market cap is $200M. Ok, SVA is not a North American company so it won't be US$1.3B at this point. However, I think less than 1/6 is not a fair value. Most of the North American biotech start up in phase II are worth more than US$200M, and SVA has 3 products that are selling and leads the Avian flu vaccine development in China.

We know why AOB dropped from high - the conversion took place (and we remembered VPHM also remained in $5-$7 during vonersion). With SVA, this probably won't happen. The Avian flu vaccine news will continue to keep it in the spot light, and the flu season is coming.

[valueseeker]

I meant the pullback for SVA when it happens won't be dramatic as AOB in the last a couple weeks (but even AOB is now back from the lows and heading higher).

[shawFund]

Hi, Micheal:

Just as what you predicted, I missed today's run.

After successfully played SVA (sell high and buy back at ascending trendline) few times,
I missed SVA's run today.

I sold SVA at $4.68 last Friday and was hoping it will retrace and pulled back again.

But this time it did not. So I missed 20% run.

But I almost gained 100% on SVA already after the 4 trades
(I used the componded money to re-take the positions).

I may modify some of my trading strategies to avoid such things (may be wait until candlestick reversal signal is given).

[David Randolph]

Hello !

If you want a beer in Mozambique, you should ask for «Uma cerveja, se faz favor». At the end: «Obrigado» will do  And don't forget to support Benfica and Eusébio (though my club is Sporting Lisbon).

Considering SVA, the fundamental background is powerful and the market fully agrees with that assessment. As Michael says, this stock can run a lot further, to $20 or more. I don't know about that, but I will let the market tell me how much is enough.

The market will tell me to hold SVA for as long as it closes above the TEMA indicator (Triple Exponential Moving Average), which for today stands at $3.74.

[valueseeker]

Hi ShawFund,

You did better than us buy & hold type. I bought at $3.2 and sitting on 70%+ gain. Interesting that you achieved better results on SVA by doing multiple short term trades. Congrats!


-Valueseeker

[David Randolph]

SVA fell 3.28% on profit taking. Nothing to be concerned about, after all the stock rose 14% yeaterday. I see three significant support areas below current price, for anyone looking to get in (and I bet there's a lot of people looking to buy at support):

1st support: TL2 on the chart, coming tomorrow at $4.41.
2sc support: TEMA indicator, at $3.84 (at a low point, but rising fast, SVA needs to keep up)
3rd support: TL2 on the chart, standing at $3.37

I will continue holding SVA for as long as it closes above the TEMA indicator.

[REALDEALS21]

Breaks 52 week night on LOW volume !