SVA

[valueseeker]

I just listened to the presentation below:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050920/205626.html?.v=1


highlights:

- no combined competitor in combined Hep-A/B vaccine
- plans to grow to 20M flu vaccine (currently 2M) facility, largest in China, can do either influenza flu (approved) or Avian Flu (under R&D)
- Chinese government backs 100% of SVA's R&D research cost in Avian flu, will do "whatever it takes to find a vaccine for Avian Flu"
- "SVA will find a cure for Avian Flu".
- Should other overseas companies find Avian Flu prior to SVA, Chinese government will likely make SVA "the" manufacturing facility for Avian Flu, since it is the largest in China (with 20M capacity in the near future)
- Well connected in China, visits by chinese president, former prime minister of Malaysia, many heads in WHO
- Shareholder base is solidifying

Once the 20M capacity is announced, they can do $120-140M revenue alone on Influenza flu. This is comparable to VPHM's revenue today. The market cap difference - VPHM = $1B, SVA = 200M. We all know that VPHM is still very undervalued.

[shawFund]

Too all concerned for SVA:

I cannot predict the future price movement for SVA. So, I cannot say how high it could be.

But one thing I am right is that I can buy SVA now below $5.50 ($5.15 closed last Friday).

If the price run too high at too short of time, it is time to sell (Merrill Lynch sell rule number 4 - I have all 8 sell rules from Merrill Lynch).

Things are quite different this time from last year because even our president mentioned the potential problems of vaccine shortage. Most likely HEB and NVAX will continue its run.

While it is quite risky to buy momentum stocks for big gains, I have made 50%+ profit, trading BRCDE (buy at $3.90 sell at $4.10+) alone from June 2005 - Now (4 months). Each time for 5%-10% gain, not big but no risk at all (it is its book value) and the money is compounded and no losing trade.

DAVID portfolio gained 15% from June to Sept (David portfolio more than doubled in the month of May).  DAVID is great because he can pick big winners. I normally do bottom fishing.

Another beauty is that you can buy 20k, 50k or more at once no problem.
So I put 30% of my potfolio money on it each time I take a position.

For SVA, NVAX, HEB I only take small position. HEB, NVAX lose big money each year. This is not the type of stocks I normally buy. 

Another no risk stock is SUNW buy at around $3.60 - no risk, that is its bottom price (absolute bottom because that is its book value).

[David Randolph]

David, do you have a price target on SVA or you are just letting it run until the stop target ?

I don't have a price target for SVA, I need to hold it for as long as the trend is bullish.

I appreciate valueseeker's and shawFund's comments about SVA. I don't think the Book Value is always the bottom for a stock, many stocks trade below their book values and that doesn't mean they're undervalued.

The TEMA indicator is coming up fast, SVA needs to keep up with the pace. TEMA = $4.22 today, I will continue holding SVA for as long as it closes above TEMA.

This way I will be in if the stock continues to rise (as I think it will) and at the same time I protect my profits along the way.

[defenderyou]

Its interesting to see what is happening in AVIAN FLU land. As David said, he is not sure which is going to pop. Well out of the four : SVA< VICL< HEB<NVAX, the two that are popping at NVAX and VICL; but the biggest winner is BCRX - it was also plugged on Cramer tonight. Thats not inthe portfoio though - any reasons David?

I guess withe additional good news on HEB, I was surprised we so NO action today.

Also, my misfortune is that I won SVA and HEB, but not the other two which were the real movers today. Hower, from the AH action, I expect VSA will move nicely tomorrow, but not sure on HEB

One last point, a few of us have been plugging HOM since Friday - today was a nice technical more - any comments?

Thanks

Defenderyou

[shawFund]

8 Sell Rules (not from Merill Lynch sorry, from O'Neil, founder of Investor's Business Daily):

1. Sell when the stock falls 7% or 8% from the purchase price. 
This works as a good insurance policy against serious losses.

2. Sell when the stock makes new price highs on low volume. 
This is a good way to tell if a stock is stalling and probably peaking..

3. Sell when the stock's Relative Price Strength Rating falls below 70. 
This IBD Rating helps determine if a stock is still acting like a leader. More.

4. Sell when the stock goes up too high, too fast. 
Most great stocks end their long advances with a "climax run." More.

5. Sell when the stock's 200-day moving average trends lower. 
With the right chart, this technical signal is easy to spot. More.

6. Sell when the industry leaders start struggling. 
Keep an eye on your stock's leading peers. If they falter, chances are your stock will too. More.

7. Sell when "distribution" hits the major market indexes. 
A series of declines on heavy volume means institutional investors are exiting the market. More.

8. Sell when earnings growth slows down. 
Without earnings growth, stocks lose their primary fuel. More.

[valueseeker]

Thanks ShawFund, Applaud!

[basonista]

[Applaud] Shawfund.  This is great information and probably deserves it's own thread, no?

[metro]

this stock like many on strong uptrends - the pullbck to 9-day then back to high - sure low risl place to buy

[shawFund]

SVA broke its base on August 27 with big volume and is moving along its 9 day EMA line since then.

Whenever it pulled back and touched 9 day EMA, it bounced back. Last Friday, it did again touched $5.11.

[shawFund]

While vaccine stocks run big these days and tech stocks tunked, I am expecting that semi stock will have big end-year rally which may start at the end of October after most of them released their earnings.

Many small cap semi stocks will be doubled from the end-of October to the end-of December. That is my prediction.

I have been in and out semi stocks for few years, it is very cyclical in nature. Big swings in few months of time. That is basically how I made 80% annually return on my portfolio the last four years. 2001-06 to 2004-12 total gain is 720% basically buying selling semi and some tech stocks. Stocks such as AMKR, ONNN, STTS, KLIC, ASTSF, ACLS, SWKS, SSTI, LEXR, AMD, ... are all possible choices. Wait until their earning release.

[Se7en]

why not play some stocks that always run before earnings!?

[la-onda]

sva acts wonderful today 
Tuesday , October 11, 2005 12:40 ET

This is the 3rd 52 WEEK HIGH alert for SVA in the past 7 calendar days.

The share price for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) reached a new 52-week high today, trading at $6.280, up $1.000 (18.94%) from its previous close of $5.280.

The Company's previous 52-week high of $6.230 was set 5 days ago on October 06, 2005.

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $3.350. The price has climbed more than 87 percent since then.

At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 1,405,000 shares via 376 trades, 63.22% above it's 20day average of 860,820 shares.

This new 52-week high currently puts the stock:

39.99% above its 20day Moving Average of $4.486
74.96% above its 50day Moving Average of $3.589
110.26% above its 100day Moving Average of $2.987

charts update:

[setravis]

I thought there was a pick on this board of this stock.
I missed this play.
Broke out of that ascending triangle and went hog wild.
Nice going to all the holders....

Support @ $5.98....5.71...5.14
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is Bearish

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Bearish
Oct-07-2005 Bearish Engulfing 

[Michael]

Sorry for being a bit absent but investing is taking a secong priority right now (first priority is to enjoy life and by the end of the day this is what investment is all about  )

I do however still follow the discussions and there was some quite interesting comments today in this thread about book values and when to sell stocks.

I guess it is all about your time horizon. Shawfund might have a great return by buying and selling great stocks at every weakness or strength. It doesn't work for me though.

I am a quite primitive investor. I believe it is all about predicting the earnings one or two years out in the future. If you look at stock like CKCM, KOMG and NFI they are all down today and their technical picture is not pretty. But they are ridiculous cheap if you look at their earnings and their growth. Now the truth is that all of them can fall additional 10% or even 20%.

If I had followed Merrill Lunch advice I would have sold everyone of them already. But I would also have sold AOB at 2.35, VPHM at 6.9 and SVA at 4.15.

As said I am a quite primitive investor. I am unfortunately sure that we will have an outbreak of Bird Flu in the next one to two years (so is WHO) and I think that the stock price of SVA will post a significant increase as a result of this.

I also think that CKCM will continue to benefit from the growth of RFID and that NFI will continue to have a dividend yield of +16% for the coming two years and I also think that KOMG who are not able to produce enough to meet the demand will do OK in the coming years. I could be wrong but to quote Peter Lynch I only have to be right 60% of the times to have a great return and my return this year is not too bad (and neither was the last three years).

I am a primitive investor. As long as my strategy works I am not going to change it. I know that Merrill Lynch is telling me to Sell and that UBS thinks that every good news from DNDN is an opportunity to short. Cramer think that the vaccine plays are ready for a reversal etc. etc. etc. etc.

Well I believe that I am the best person to take care of my interests and I honestly believe that I know as much about evaluating companies as Cramer (in his ridiculous lightning rounds!!!) or a so-called analyst with UBS (with a past career as a sales representative) so I am going to Stay with CKCM, KOMG and NFI. I am down approximately 5% on these shares but I am up 500% on VPHM, 300% on AOB, 100% on SVA so I can afford to wait.

It is probably not the smartest things to do - but it works.

[shaker340]

I will put a short stop on this stock to keep my profit from rolling right back down the roller coaster