SVA

[David Randolph]

I'm ashamed I sold SVA, not following my initial plan. Some of the fault is the way the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio performance is calculated, with just the closed deals counting for the calculus.

Anyway, I've made a mistake when I sold SVA. I need to correct that mistake, recognize that SVA is probably one of the best holdings a speculator can have at this moment (it is still very undervalued, as someone said, «it is worth at least a billion») and buy it back today.

[SmartWrasse]

Of course I wish we had kept SVA, but on the day I sold last week I didn't have much faith in stocks.  My concern now is will this thing shoot up at the open and then fall back down?  Is 6.5 in its future?

[valueseeker]

This is the best in terms of fundamentals in the bird flu group (i.e. AVII, NVAX, HEB). It never made any daily press release like others did about bird flu. Its approved drugs (Hep-A/B and normal flu) should put it in $1B market cap. No hype here, it's just worth $25/shr based on products without bird flu, unlike others are just about bird flu.

It is invited to present its bird flu result to WHO in 2 weeks.

[eggman11]

David,

You mentioned that you would buy back SVA today. What are price are you planning to buy it back at? 

[Ramsburg]

David,

You mentioned that you would buy back SVA today. What are price are you planning to buy it back at? 

Hi eggman11,

We bought it @ 7.75 on the open.
You can see our entry prices here:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php

Whenever we recommend a new pick for our portfolio, we usually buy at / or near the opening by default, unless instructions otherwise.

Best regards !

[danman3459]

anybody else getting scared by today's performance? 

[REALDEALS21]

Maybe it is jsut some proft taking, people are not trying to be too greedy !

[ScottishTrader]

Having a look at the chart, I think SVA is retracing and should get a low touch of support, around 6.60, late today or tomorrow - should rebound from there.

[fous]

Yesterday SVA's price action broke out of its all time of 6.95 which occured last year. Todays price action came down to test that price to have a low of 6.95 today. I wasn't surprised to see profit taking with such a steep advance and making an all time high. Like scottish said i see support in the 6.60 area as well and the gap hoping not to get filled on a close below 6.40. With such strong momentum on heavy volume i don't think we will see that gap get filled for a long time or until all this bird flu hype has calmed down. What I'd like to see happen is price action staying above of its all time high of 6.95  . Im in at 6.00 and nibbled a little bit more today before the close at 7.16.

The Red uptrend line that is following price action as of now is rising at 12.9 cents/day

anybody else getting scared by today's performance?

I wouldn't be to worried danman, have patience, yet maintain discipline........

Good luck all holders 

-fousc

[LiveLife]

My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

[Lucas Scott]

On the daily chart there is a bearish divergence in RSI vs stock price for SVA -- RSI making a lower high while the stock price made a higher high. Using this metric though, one would have sold at $6 so maybe there is still more upside left. Or it may truly be a signal to go short. I see $4 as the eventual target on a retrace. Tough with these momo's though cause maybe it goes to $15 first.

Bird flu

Vaughn

[David Randolph]

«At least a billion». The current market cap for SVA is $270.48M, so solely based on the billion assumption, the stock should rise to $26.51 

Now, is SVA worth a billion dollars? I was reading some information from their 10-Q:

«Sinovac  specializes  in the  research,  development  and  commercialization  of
vaccines for infectious  diseases such as hepatitis A,  hepatitis B,  influenza,
Avian Flu Influenza and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ("SARS").  The Company
aspires to become a leader in China's  biotech  industry.  Working  closely with
Chinese  public  health  agencies,  the  Company  focuses on  manufacturing  and
marketing  human-use  vaccines  and  related  products,  as  well  as  providing
technical and consulting services.  Sinovac is the first company in the world to
have been  granted  permission  to  conduct  human  clinical  trials  for a SARS
vaccine.»

«The overall  strategic mission of the Company is to become a world leader in the
research and development,  manufacturing and  commercialization  of vaccines for
epidemic viruses such as hepatitis and influenza,  and for fast-emerging viruses
such as SARS and Avian Flu Influenza (a.k.a. "bird flu").

The Company believes that it is possible and financially viable to provide safe,
efficient  vaccines  to all  countries  regardless  of wealth.  Through  careful
financial management,  low production costs and modern,  innovative  techniques,
the  Company   intends  to  continue  to  produce  high  quality   vaccines  and
successfully  service market sectors that many pharmaceutical  giants are unable
to service.

The following represents the Company's objectives for 2005:

o    Increase  hepatitis A vaccine  (Healive(TM))  sales and revenues;  initiate
     sales of it's combined hepatitis A / B vaccine  (Bilive(TM));  and sales of
     its  influenza  flu vaccine  (Anflu(TM)).  To  accomplish  this  objective,
     Sinovac will:

     >    Expand the size of its sales force and conduct sales training

     >    Enhance brand  awareness  through  Chinese  media (news,  professional
          publications, and advertising)

     >    Conduct  and  participate  in  promotional  activities   (conferences,
          seminars, VIP visits to Company facilities)

o    Commence sales of Bilive(TM) in China (the SFDA approved Bilive(TM) January
     7, 2005)

Gain SFDA approval for Anflu(TM)  production facility and commence sales in
     China

o    Complete  the  Summary  Report on Phase I clinical  trial on SARS  vaccine;
     entering  Phase II clinical  trials will depend on the SFDA's  approval and
     requirements statement

o    Continue new vaccine products  development,  including an avian flu vaccine
     with the China Centre of Disease Control and Prevention ("China CDC")

o    Register and license  Healive(TM),  Bilive(TM)  and  Anflu(TM)  for sale in
     other developing countries

o    Forge international strategic partnerships to open overseas markets

o    Explore and develop domestic and international R&D and marketing agreements

o    Explore acquisition opportunities»

If Europe and the US need vaccines (specially for the Bird Flu in the short term), just imagine the Chinese ! And SVA is the company best positioned to address this need, with help from the government and all.

This is the best in terms of fundamentals in the bird flu group (i.e. AVII, NVAX, HEB). It never made any daily press release like others did about bird flu. Its approved drugs (Hep-A/B and normal flu) should put it in $1B market cap. No hype here, it's just worth $25/shr based on products without bird flu, unlike others are just about bird flu.

It is invited to present its bird flu result to WHO in 2 weeks.

This is valuable information from valueseeker. Since the company is invited for WHO in 2 weeks, I can only see buy the rumor that it is possible for SVA to sell its vaccines not only to the Chinese, but worldwide. I can't see a better place for mass vaccine production than China.

This is all speculation, but as valueseeker says, «a billion» even without the Bird Flu.

So I'm not selling this stock anytime soon, not below $25. It would take a lot of change in the technicals and fundamentals to shake me out now. I'll continue holding SVA for the foreseeable future.

[AussieTrader]

I could post this on NVAX or HEB or SVA. Anyway another Avian outbreak this time in China H5N1 confirmed. This from BBC news.

News news news on Avain stocks and as David has said a bubble will forfm, everyone talking about avian flu and the companies involved in it.



Fresh bird flu outbreak in China
A health worker vaccinates a chicken at a chicken farm May 23, 2005 in Xining, Qinghai Province, China.
China has taken considerable precautions since its first outbreak
China has announced a fresh outbreak of bird flu, saying 2,600 birds have died from the disease in Inner Mongolia.

The deaths, at a farm near the region's capital of Hohhot, were due to the H5N1 strain, which is potentially lethal to humans, the Xinhua news agency said.

China has previously suffered outbreaks of bird flu in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet, all this year. Thousands of affected fowl have been slaughtered.

Bird flu has killed at least 60 people in Asia since December 2003.

Xinhua said the latest outbreak, in Tengjiaying village near Hohhot, was now under control.

   
H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS
Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997
Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds
Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed

Q&A: Avian flu

China's national bird flu laboratory confirmed it was the H5N1 strain, Xinhua said.

No human victims were mentioned in the report - China's bird flu outbreaks have so far only affected its fowl.

Its most recent previous confirmed case was near the Tibetan capital of Lhasa in August, in which 133 birds died and another 2,475 were slaughtered.

A local official told the AFP news agency that the latest outbreak had been detected at a small farm with fewer than 10,000 birds, mainly chickens, geese and peacocks.

News of the outbreak comes as European officials deal with outbreaks in Romania and Turkey.

Scientists fear the H5N1 strain could combine with human flu or mutate into a form that it easily transmissable between humans, triggering a flu pandemic.

[ScottishTrader]

well we just got a low touch of 6.63 this morning, which hopefully was our touch on ascending support.  Price appears to have stabilised around 6.80, and may rebuild for an upward push later today, well, at least that's what I'm hoping 

-- Hmm... spoke too soon - currently hitting new low of 6.51 for the day, which may have broken the ascending trendline I was working from - a lot of profit taking, or are traders getting discouraged here?  If it keeps going down, it may not be good... 

[metro]

the 9-day is about 6.42 and that level is often a good entry point with a stop just below  - the pats low on bo candle about 6.50 so yu may want to try there