SVA

[Se7en]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4362864.stm

Roche to license bird flu drugs

Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche has asked generic drug firms to help speed up the manufacture of a key anti-viral ahead of a feared bird flu pandemic.
Demand has soared for the drug Tamiflu, which works against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment.

"We will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself," said New York Senator Charles Schumer after talks with Roche.

The firms Teva, Barr, Mylan and Ranbaxy aim to start production within a month.

'In a timely manner'

"Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies which might also be interested in making Tamiflu," said Mr Schumer after his meeting with George Abercrombie, head of Roche's US operations.

Roche is keen to ensure the generic drug firms are able to produce sufficient quantities of Tamiflu before they grant them a license to do so.

"We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines," the company said.

Demand for the drug is by far outstripping demand, even though Roche has doubled production every year for three years.

By next summer, the company will have boosted its output eightfold when compared with 2004.

Forty governments have placed massive orders to protect their populations in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form where it poses a serious threat to human health.

Companies are also placing orders to protect their workforce.



http://www.washtimes.com//business/20051020-105955-8323r.htm

The maker of Tamiflu yesterday agreed to increase supplies of the flu drug and negotiate potential production deals with four manufacturers.
    Hoffman-La Roche Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Swiss drug company F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., agreed to meet with the companies to discuss licensing Tamiflu production to meet high demand for the drug.
    Tamiflu, which is manufactured only by Roche, is considered to be the only viable drug treatment against a possible bird-flu pandemic.
    "Roche has graciously stepped up to the plate, and has essentially agreed to share its technology and the rights to manufacture this drug with other companies who are willing to help out," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, who has pressured Roche to license production of the drug to meet worldwide demand.
    Sens. Schumer and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, met with Roche President and Chief Executive George Abercrombie yesterday to discuss licensing Tamiflu production.
    "We discussed with them our previously announced intentions to meet with companies that may be able to assist in manufacturing additional supplies of Tamiflu," Mr. Abercrombie said.
   He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
    Roche's representatives did not return calls for comment.
    Earlier this week, Roche said it would build a new U.S. plant to increase Tamiflu production amid fears of a major bird-flu outbreak.
    Roche also agreed to negotiate "equitable terms" with companies that can produce enough of the drug to meet government demand, Mr. Schumer said.
    The federal government has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the ultimate goal of stockpiling enough to treat 25 percent of the nation's population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
    Concern about the deadly strain of bird flu centers on scientists' fears that it may mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic that might kill millions.
    A 48-year-old Thai man became the 67th person known to have been killed by the bird-flu virus, officials said yesterday.
    All the human deaths from avian flu so far have occurred in Asia, but the lethal virus was detected this month in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania.
    In Brussels yesterday, the European Union adopted fresh measures to fight the virus, banning live birds from markets or exhibitions without permission.

[David Randolph]

Today was my first time testing it, but what I realised is that it is too difficult to use intraday charts effectively during the day if they are not realtime (well they're not for me at least).  Also, I spend far too much time pouring over my computer screen trying to figure out what the next incremental move is gonna be.  Basically, I don't think I'm ready to be a daytrader.   

I also appreciate your work ScottishTrader. For day trading purposes I would not use stocks, but very liquid futures, as the e-mini SPX futures, but that's a very though game. I only watch the market from 9:00 am to 10 am and from 3:30 pm to 4:15 pm, that is, the opening and the closing action. That's where most volume occurs anyway and I can't analyze intraday data on multiple stocks, my brain would get very tired with infinite analysis and thoughts. Read the Indian philosopher OSHO on this subject if you want.

Good luck and keep up !

He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.

All of those 4 companies are too big to get much impact from the sale of Tamiflu. Although it is a positive I don't see it in a way to major impact the stock prices, since these are all multi billion companies.

SVA is the company positioned to supply the vast Chinese market, which apparently is also the one country who needs the most of a vaccine to fight the Bird Flu.

The stock came down on profit taking and my entry timing was awful. Anyway, I still think SVA will jump to $26 in early 2006. I will continue holding SVA without a doubt.

[SmartWrasse]

Great action for the shorts.  I hope they cover soon, but probably not.

[jb]

Wow what is going on with this one? It is getting hammered!

[danman3459]

OK guys.  WTF?   

[SmartWrasse]

I hold out hope that it will close above the middle trend line.  Good luck longs!

[aitech61]

I just got in again in the $5.60 range. I agree with Randolph that this stock has much further to go. There is a lot of money coming out of the energy sector and needs somewhere to go.  Governments across the globe are dealing with this potentially catastrophic epidemic.

China by far is the most exposted at this point and SVA will reap some huge gains from this.  We have seen China plays in the past surge and I have a gut feel this stock will be no different....

I like my entry point.  If it should go down from here and test the 50dma I will average down.

We shall see!!!!!

[Irishman]

Apparently that windbag Cramer had a lady call his show last night and ask about SVA and he told her to sell with no further explanation. Of course, all the Cramer lemmings are now selling. Personally I think the guy is a complete gasbag and dishonest to boot ( He NEVER talks about his bad calls) so I've only watched him a few times.
The same goes with BSNBC. They are nothing but cheerleaders, although I must admit I do enjoy listening to Rick Santelli from the CBOT in the AM as he's one of the 2 or 3 guys they have on there that knows what he's talking about. I have to laugh when they have on the so-called "Money Managers" and Mutual Fund stockpickers. What a crock! Before they put them on. they should put their recent track record on the screen and let everyone know how "expert" they really are.
Anyway, I had been out of this stock since we all profited on the first run-up, but Cramer has given me the opportunity to get back in so I can thank the gasbag for that I guess. FWIW, I really don't view this as a bird-flu play. From what I can see they have much more to offer, and while I think David's $26 target is a bit optimistic, There is no doubt that this stock is going up. Off to Ireland for a week or so tomorrow so-- All the best.
 Irish

[usedcasting]

So Cram'er sets up another buying op.

Good Trading All!

[metro]

SVA went to trend line and this is also the 38% retrace so good chance of bounce here



Places like this are low risk entries as you put your stop a bit below so if it fails you are out and then wait for another  setup -

[john b mcginnis]

I'm happy to be back in SVA. In @ 5.66 With half the number of shares as the previous run up, but happy nonetheless. Doubled my money, the best % increase next to OXFV since I've been a member of 3Stocks. My wife was upset that I sold last time. {still glad I did}. Sold @6.25

[oicpecnoc]

Cramers for entertainment.  He mocked himself in a big way on Joe s and shld.  Put the symbol on his forehead on a post it note during the lightning round.  Can't say he doesn't say when he is misses.

[brandyjoco]

I also bought 2000 more SVA at 5.70 today.  I will feel better when it goes back up as I am holding a boatload of SVA now.

I think it has a good future. I probably would have walked away from it but it seems that Dave Randolph also thinks it is worth alot more. Hope it goes back up soon!

Anyone else have any thoughts on SVA?

[defenderyou]

I bought 5000 more todat too at 5.60 having bought 5000 yesterdat at 6.43; now I have 15k and hoping! Find it interesting way NVAX and SVA are almost negatively correlated (own that too) and this same pattern happened last week I think before SVA went up from mid 5s to mid 7s

Good luck

[brandyjoco]

I wonder if the same daytraders are jumping from SVA to NVAX and visa versa? I have 7500 SVA...

I also hold NVAX and wish I would have bought more. NVAX has alot going for it also.