SVA

[fous]

Technically we've seen a spike week that failed to close above the all time high of 6.95 on a weekly chart. On a daily chart we did have a close above 6.95. Though increasing shorts and sell orders came in a pummled the bulls. Volume and the interest in this stock is much greater now then it was last year when it met that point so i wont be surprised to see price action head back up north above 6.95. This is the first down week of the uptrend since David first purchased this stock so hopefully we won't see a continuing downtrend. Hard to believe we will see it go down too much farther with the fast spreading bird flu and the demand for a reliable vaccine. I imagine many shorts will be buying to cover soon and longs will being filling positions at these bargain prices. Let us hope next week and the weeks to come will be back in our favor.

regards,

fousc

[shawFund]

After bought SVA last week at $6.32, it jumped to as high as $7.21 then reversed.

I sold it at $6.83 during its short term down trend.

One rule: never let your profit done.

I did not have any shares of SVA now. May consider to re-enter it ext week.

[David Randolph]

I had an awful timing on this SVA second buy. Now we know the stock was overbought and due for a pullback. People had huge short term profits to cash in, and Cramer gave them a motive (a stupid motive, since he gave no reason to sell).

I bet many short term traders, looking at the chart with such a steep uptrend, sold the stock short too.

On Friday volume picked up considerably and SVA is near a strong support area. I think it has surpassed the $5 area enough not to go below it again. Shorts will cover and SVA will run away with the bulls again.

I want to go back and focus on this:

«BEIJING, Sep 20, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd (SVA) today announced that it will present at the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) Global Life Sciences Conference; has received a government grant for the development of an avian flu vaccine for humans; and received a USD 4.94 million dollar commercial credit line from a Chinese commercial bank.»

China alone will probably need more avian flu vaccines than Europe and the US combined. SVA is the only player on that field, supported by the Chinese government. SVA will provide vaccines for the entire Chinese market in the near future (for hepatitis and others).

The market cap is just $223M.

I see this stock at $26 in the first half of 2006 and I won't sell for the time being.

[calven]

Downchannel resistance....

[brandyjoco]

What does down channel resistance mean?

[brandyjoco]

What do you think about SVA's chart today?

[raymat]

SVA has so many news that are not listed by yahoo.  If you are interested, please check this following link, it is a little bit slow though:

http://www.sinovac.com/NewsRoom/News/

[AussieTrader]

I stopped out of SVA today on all my holding (I had a core position and also had added on the way up). I set a tight stop because I think SVA is struggling a bit around $6.30 and I didn't like the MACD Histo signal on my daily chart (stock up today MACD histo negative divergance) and may look to take a pullback to support possibly down near $5. Right now SVA sitting at the middle of bollinger bands (where it has been supported before) For sure I'll buy again if it pulls back to support or if it can break the red downtrend line on this chart.
Good luck

[saffeysite1]

Maybe this news will help the MACD divergence:

Bird flu pandemic 'almost certain'

October 25, 2005
There would almost certainly be a bird flu pandemic, Health Minister Tony Abbott said today.

Mr Abbott, who was meeting with Health Ministers in the Canadian capital Ottawa to discuss bird flu, said it was important that all nations took the threat seriously.

"There will almost certainly be a pandemic at some stage," Mr Abbott said.

"But whether it will be next month, next year, or next decade, we just don't know.

"We do know that there have been three pandemics in the last 100 years.

"The first in 1918-19 was very, very serious indeed. It killed, perhaps, 50 million people around the world, including about 12,000 people in Australia.

"The two subsequent pandemics in the late 1950s and the late 1960s were much less severe. They killed about a million people each around the world, including about 500 each in Australia."

Mr Abbott said the risk of a human strain of bird flu was greatest in south and east Asia which did not keep as careful a watch on poultry flocks as Australia.

[saffeysite1]

Or maybe this latest news:

10/25/2005

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/news/stories/s1490191.htm

China has reported a new outbreak of bird flu, in the eastern province of Anhui.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation says it has been told about the outbreak by China's Agriculture Ministry.

Hundreds of geese are said to have died of the disease, while 45,000 other birds have been culled.

It is the sixth outbreak in China this year and the second in less than a week, following the deaths of 2,600 birds and the culling of 91,000 at a farm in the northern Inner Mongolia region.

Chinese leaders have warned the country faces a "grave" threat from avian influenza, as both Asia and Europe fight to contain the deadly virus.

President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have issued a directive for an all-out effort to prevent the spread of the virus.

China's health and agricultural ministries have responded by intensifying their coordination and strengthening monitoring around the country.

UN sends experts to Indonesia

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation is sending a team of experts to Indonesia to help fight an outbreak of avian flu in the country's poultry flocks.

The aim is to help Indonesia combat the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus at source, by organising a house-by-house search for infected birds.

Indonesia has so far confirmed the deaths of three people from bird flu, while at least six more have died from suspected cases of the virus.

Meanwhile, a British team of experts is due to arrive in Vietnam for a two-day investigation into bird flu.

The six-member team will also head for China and Hong Kong where the first deaths from the virus were reported.

Volunteers mobilised in Thailand

In Thailand, Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul says 900,000 volunteers have been assigned to perform house-to-house checks for signs of the virus.

The initiative, to be coordinated by more than 9,700 local health offices, comes as Thailand tries to combat bird flu following the country's 13th death.

Since late 2003, large outbreaks of bird flu have exploded among poultry flocks throughout Asia, leading to more than 60 human deaths.

Millions of chickens and ducks have been culled in efforts to halt the disease's spread.

The World Health Organisation fears the H5N1 strain of bird flu could mutate into a highly contagious form that triggers the next global human flu pandemic.

A mutated bird flu outbreak was blamed for the deaths of as many as 40 million people worldwide in 1918.

Europe calls for complete ban on wild bird imports

The European Commission says it will call for a complete ban on wild bird imports after a parrot died in British quarantine with the virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu.

It is the first time the virus has struck in Britain.

The highly pathogenic strain of H5N1 bird flu that is circulating in poultry and other birds in southeast Asia has now been identified in four countries in the World Health Organisation's (WHO) 52-member European region: Britain, Romania, Russia and Turkey.

Croatia, meanwhile, says an as-yet unspecified strain has killed swans in the country's northeast.

The WHO says Europe is well placed to combat the deadly strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus but it has warned against complacency.

[brandyjoco]

Raymat:  Yes there is awesome news on SVA's website but they are not making it public at this point. That is hurting the stock short term.  I guess I will have to ride it out...It looks like the WHO deligation NISBC visited SVA on 10/15/05. Also, SVA is giving a presentation at WHO on 11/02/05. Many of the investors do not know this yet.

Saffeysite1:  I agree that SVA is in a unique position in Asia to help with the possibility of a pandemic. Long term this stock is awesome. It looks like it may consolidate for awhile as long as there is now SVA specific news and the birdflu stocks are doing well.

[zenom]

brandyjoco,

What is the awesome news on SVA's website, but not public? Can you be more specific? I went to the site, checked the news and don't understand what you're seeing. Thanks.

[Michael]

Zenom,

It is right there on the front page http://www.sinovac.com/ so by definition it is public. I like this part:

During the meeting, Sinovac presented the Company's development on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1) and other vaccines. Sinovac described its experience in development of fast production vaccines with reverse genetic technology in new influenza pandemic with mutated strains.

Doesn't help the stock much - I am not too worried though. This is a Chinese stock whatever they say will be met with skepticism. You will have to appreciate the power of 1 billion people putting resources in to solve a global problem before you understand that the $216 million market cap of Sinovac is a steal.

We already know that the Chinese Government is holding back information about new strains of the Bird flu to give their own industry an advantage and that they are paying 100% of SVA's development cost of a Bird Flu vaccine. I am looking at NVAX with admiration but who are sponsoring their development cost and who are providing them with new strains of Bird Flu! I am sorry this really is a no-brainer for me.

[brandyjoco]

Zenom,

Yes, the latest news releases are from the front page of the SVA website:

LATEST NEWS RELEASES   
2005-10-24
NIBSC Delegation Visits Sinovac Biotech Ltd. »
2005-10-24
SARS Vaccine Development Paper Published in Journal of Medical Virology »
2005-10-24
Sinovac Holds 3rd Company Sales Conference »

NIBSC is 'WHO'. It sounds like they are very involved with SVA. Also, SVA will be presenting at the WHO conference on November 2 - I believe.

[David Randolph]

I was reading the thread and thinking that you already provided all the fundamental information needed to be bullish SVA.

Yesterday it was strange the stock didn't advance with the rest of the Bird Flu group. Probably it had just one day lag, the stock may not be ready yet for another bullish leg up after rising so much over the medium term.

I have time and patience. I agree with Michael when he says the stock is undervalued and I see catalysts to move it sharply higher over the short term - for example, that presentation at the WHO can make the stock explode on the upside, because maybe, just maybe, they may provide vaccines on the Bird Flu to the entire world, not just China.

Technically, strong support is just beneath current prices. We got TL2 at $5.79 and the TEMA indicator at $5.44.

I will continue holding SVA.