SVA

[keepsavi]

I like the CESV story , a good recent PR release

Should be plenty of room for growth since China is very ineffecient with their electricity usage. I forgot where I read that.  Anyways on an unrelated idea

Remember in the 80's and 90's when Diesal fuel was always cheaper than unleaded.  Well the places in China that cannot connect to the electricity grid have to use Diesal generators for their juice.   

[zenom]

So I'm not selling this stock anytime soon, not below $25. It would take a lot of change in the technicals and fundamentals to shake me out now.

So technicals have changed, but have fundamentals?

The 180 degree changes in philosophy from day to day do seem... puzzling. This is not the first time I've noticed this for the 3 stocks portfolio.  I too don't mean to be too critical either, but hope to offer some constructive comments. It seems that making proclamations of "holding until..." aren't followed, so why make them? It just dimishes your thunder.

[usedcasting]

Found this story this morning.

Avian flu virus found in Canada

By ALLISON DUNFIELD

Monday, October 31, 2005 Posted at 1:30 PM EST

Globe and Mail Update

Avian flu has turned up in Canada, officials from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced Monday.

A surveillance program of wild fowl done in August and September of this year in seven provinces by the agency has discovered the illness in 28 Quebec birds and five Manitoba birds.

These birds were all found to have the H5 strain of the illness – not as serious as the one found in Asia, the H5N1 subtype, which has caused a widespread outbreak there.


I find it amazing there has not been any birds found in America due to the fact that one of the most likely means of transmission is through migratory birds. Its seems very similar to mad cow disease in that Canada was put into the spot light before any cows were found in the USA.

[puenthouse]

TGT still 10$?  I dont know, but i bet alot of people bought around the 6-7 range waiting for a come back.  It will happen, no one REALLY imagined this thing becoming an outbreak.  Bush will confirm this tomorrow.  He will mention his 8 BILLION dollar plan and stocks will jump.  5.00 is a good entry point.  risk is bottom to 4 or as high as 8+.   No need to panic yet.  I believe people will be buying back in at higher prices after just taking loses.  But like i said, it really depends on what the Presidient says tomorrow

Quote from DAN
This is a company that is carefully growing its business and is on track to achieve a tremendous potential as one of China's---and Asia's---leading vaccine manufacturers.

I will do some research on CBMX- it seems to be an american company.  Could get its name used tomorrow.  Its up 14% already at 2.10 breaking resistance.  Could be a good catch.

[owen654321]

Just want to point out BBC, another chinese equity.  Not only is it undervalued, but it is growing and profitable.  I don't expect any movement any time soon, but it will pop some day... I believe it's one to keep on the radar screens.  Any of the experts on the board feel like doing a quick TA on it?

[vic666]

the bottom from a few weeks back of 4.89 after which this thing went to 7.92, seems to have held again today....good sign IMO.

the close above 5.00 is also quite encouraging...looks like 4.90 may be a short term double bottom after all...we'll just have to wait and see.

also, the stochastics show me an oversold situation and time to grab some at these levels...the two resistances I see now are:

1.) $5.75 which previously was a support level

2.) $6.65 which failed to be broken twice in two days last week.

i added more at 4.98 today.

good luck 

[defenderyou]

viac666:

Appreciate your post - just want to say I agree with you 100%, but I hesitated to buy more; I actually sold some more at 5.20 this am, now having 50% of my original long position. I think vic666 is right than the bounce back over $5 is very constructive and expect SVA to probably trend higher from here. If I get another chance I will also buy below 5.00 Its worth looking at NVAX and the way its going slowly back above $4. I dumped some more at 3.84 but am keeping the rest; I also have a AH buy order in at 3.96 as I am convinced we will get to mid4s before we retest 3.60! When I sold I did not see the pattern that emerged later in the day; had I known I would not have sold any NVAX shares.

Thanks

[KCScott]

It touched the 38% retracement level (4.91) and moved north after that.
Bush speech tomorrow combined with SVA presentation at WHO on 11/02/05 made this a buy at 5.02 today.

Though about watching it one more day, but I beleive the Bush speech tomorrow will ignite another round of speculation.

[vic666]

thats correct...the 38% retracement was one support, and the same 4.91 also acted asa bottom from a recent uptrend to 52 week highs.

all-in-all, I believe we have seena a short term uptredn, atleast till the 5.50-5.75 levles...where we face some resistance from earlier support areas (which were broken on friday).

all of the above, not considering any speculative news...in which case, this will tredn back higher faster IMO. 

[Lucas Scott]

The 180 degree changes in philosophy from day to day do seem... puzzling. This is not the first time I've noticed this for the 3 stocks portfolio

Yeah, that is pretty funny "I won't sell till $25" followed by "Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell!!!!" LOL! If you check the NVAX thread though, over the weekend David stated he's reconsidered his use of targets because, as a trader, they cause you to take your eye off the ball. Pretend you're a hitter in baseball. If your target is the "hit it here" sign 450 feet from home plate and you're staring at that target, then you're not watching the ball and you won't hit it. Not 450 feet, maybe not even 50 feet

[Melf Elf]

Something that I'm finding noticeably absent from this thread and others, is any mentioning of the SPECTACULAR gains that David has had in HEB, SVA, and NVAX:

HEB  + 20.80
HEB  - 15.86
NVAX + 26.66
NVAX + 11.32
SVA +66.67
SVA -30.97

Total Gain on the six trades: 78.62%

Is that as good as it "could have been?"  Not by a long shot.  David "could have" sold NVAX a few days ago for 100%+ gain.

There probably isn't a trader in the world who "coulda"..."shoulda"..."woulda" had a better gain "if they they had just done this, that, or the other thing."

What's the bottom line here?  A 78.62% gain on six trades.  That's an outstanding result.

As far as David's $25 target on SVA, and then changing his mind, here's my view on that: when David gives his daily update, he's giving us his view at that moment in time.  He's also talking to us T2T (Trader To Trader), like friends would over a drink after the market closes.  One might say, "I think this stock is going to the moon!"  Or, "Im never selling this stock!  I can send the kids to college on it!"  That's all T2T talk.

When it comes down to actual trading decisions, David uses stops, regardless of how excited he is about a stock, or his opinion about a stock.  He also is honest with himself, and has been honest with us in admitting that certain entries weren't good, and in admitting that he has to change his opinion, based on what he's seeing NOW.

Being willing to change one's view is critical to success.  If David wasn't willing to do that, he would be hanging on endlessly to losing positions, and he would not have nearly the good results that he has.

If any member is upset with David over the bird flu stocks, I have trouble understanding why, when they should have an overall gain in the six trades of 78.62%, like David does. 

If anyone has losses in these stocks, I have to conclude that that person was making trading decisions on his or her own, and isn't taking responsibility for his or her own trading decisions.

If anyone hung on to one of these six trades because of something that David said in the past, it's unfair to hang David with that.  The market is dynamic.  It changes, and David has to change with it.  And, he did.

As in all of life, internet sites like 3SOF can deteriorate fairly quickly if we give our energy to negativity.  It breeds on itself.  I would hate to see that happen here.

Applause to David fo his 78.62% gain in these six bird flu-related trades.





 

[wisebuys]

BRAVO Melf Elf !!!!!!  Well said.

GRRRRRREAT POST !   I also enjoy this website and would hate to see it turn into a "normal" message board.

I did get a bit carried away with SVA, but what the heck ... win some loose some eh?

[keepsavi]

Regarding the whole bird flu situation perhaps David might consider keeping the bird flu group stocks on the board and give his reccomendations although he might have sold his position temporarily.  Since he already stated that he doesn't expect the flu hype to go away in the near short term thus there will be plenty of volatility, risk, and opportunity for profit and I for one would benefit from his guidance although his timing hasn't been perfect 

[KCScott]

SVA up 7.5% so far (11:30 AM EDT)..... My only regret is I didn't buy NVAX too (22% jump)

[la-onda]

SVA cooperation 


Doctors: Bird flu patient 'will survive'

(dpa) - Health authorities expressed confidence on Tuesday that Thailand's 20th bird flu patient - a 50-year-old Bangkok woman - would survive the deadly virus because she had received swift Tamiflu treatment.

"I guarantee this woman will not die," said Thawat Sunfrajan, director general of Thailand's Communicable Diseases Department. "I am 100-per-cent confident she will survive."

Lab tests confirmed Monday night that the woman, whose name has not been disclosed, had contracted bird flu while helping her husband clean up chicken droppings in a garden in suburban Nonthaburi.

The woman, upon developing avian-influenza symptoms, was sent to Siriraj Hospital in the capital where she was immediately treated with Tamiflu, the only known effective medicine against the deadly H5N1 virus.

"Tamiflu is not a cure, but if it is taken soon enough, it will halt the spread of the virus," Dr Tawat said. He said Thailand has a stockpile of 1 million Tamiflu doses, enough to treat 100,000 patients.

Thailand has had 20 confirmed cases of humans contracting bird flu from poultry, of whom 13 have died.

Tawat said Thailand was ready to produce Tamiflu locally under licence from Roche, the Swiss manufacturer of the drug.

The government's Pharmaceutical Organization has also entered into a joint venture with China's Sinovac enterprise to produce a vaccine against human influenza, he said.

Although the vaccine would not stop the H5N1 virus, it would prevent all forms of human influenza, and, therefore, reduce the possibility of the bird-flu virus mutating into a form that could be transmitted from human to human, Tawat said.

"What the whole world is worried about is that this H5N1 will mutate into a human-to-human virus," he said.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=59134