SVA

[valueseeker]

Hi Michael,

I am still holding SVA. I am not following Avian flu closely, but just think that they will sell out the 2M influenza flu vacine in China, and will sell out the 20M influenza flu vaccine when it's financed & built.


-Louis

[Michael]

Hi Louis,

I agree - their normal flu vaccine is what makes this a good solid investment. It is however the AVIAN flu vaccine that makes this a potential stellar investment.

Here is a bit more news out of Thailand:

French and Chinese pharmaceutical giants plan to conduct H5N1 vaccination trials on health care workers, poultry farmers and kids in Thailand, considered to be at-risk groups for bird flu infection, the Public Health Ministry's Medical Sciences Department revealed yesterday. France's Sanofi Pasteur and China's Sinovac Biotech were interested in jointly conducting the bird flu vaccine experiments on humans with the ministry. The companies also disclosed plans to establish avian influenza production factories here, said chief of Medical Sciences Paijit Warachit.

Human trials, joint venture with Sanofi ...........

Hmmmm..... Something is indeed brewing!

[valueseeker]

Hi Michael,

I agree. I just hope that not too many short term Avian flu guys come in and run the price to $7.5 and then drop. I am a long term holder but don't appreciate the portfolio go up & down too much, but rather have steady state growth.

Certainly a fantastic day with VPHM, AOB, CKCM, SVA, HOM, BRVO, and BTUI! I just put in a small investment in ETLT.OB this morning on Oliver's recommendation and looks like a big winner!

-Louis

[Lucas Scott]

My entry last Friday at 5.17 was looking really smart up until about an hour ago when the pps went into a freefall. What's up with the drop from 5.70's to below 5.20 today? I am going to hold and see what happens tomorrow. I expect tomorrow will be a small white candle. Of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part.

[vic666]

what the heck happened in the late afternoon....almost all birdflu stocks closed red, and SVA was no exception either!! 

can someone shed light on if there was some sorta news that drove this down...coz up until 2.30 pm, things looked great.   

[logocovet]

SVA is a great company with great potential but it is not very good with PR.  We've heard nothing official about the Bangkok Post'sreported Thailand deal or Sanofi teamup.  There is much talk on the SVA investor group on Yahoo that SVA will come out soon with a private placement.  This (or some other form of raising money) seems inevitable as it will need funding for expanding production of Anflu.

The Chinese govt recently backtracked on its previous statement that a yong girl that died did not have bird flu.  Now it says it isn't sure and has  invited the WHO to investigate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/11/07/wflu07.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/11/07/ixportal.html
SVA also had a brief mention in Forbes as a bird flu play.

http://www.forbes.com/home/free_forbes/2005/1114/214.html

I don't know what to make of recent action.  2 days up on low volume and a sharp drop today.  anyone with any  insight?

[logocovet]

The sharp selloff towards the end of the day could be because the WHO said that Avian Flu  is not a pandemic but rather an animal disease.

[defenderyou]

Yeah waht a bummer  I made a mistake. essentially out of VSA with only 3k shares unitl today - bought too seeon at 5.40 on the temporary drop - at least I thought it was and got hosed on a quick 2.5k purchase. I too will hodl till tomorrow but on any waekness I will take my losses. I would love to hear a good explanation of what happened form someone like Mr. ELF

Best and good luck

Defenderyou

[Stocky2000]

  yeah this shart drop yesterday....was it because it triggerd stop losses at around 5.50 support ? maybe ? or are we still in downtrend ?

my plan
1. sell limit market order 4.81 (4.82 was low of the last 10 days)
2. or keep it long target 2006 fundemental play
3. MA 50 at 4.91 should hold
4. if plan fails move on

We will see

[Melf Elf]

The way that I look at this, the bears have had four successful moves off the October 17 top:

1. They broke the Bear Flag (dark blue lines on chart) at about 6.15 on October 27.  Target: 4.99 was made.

Math for the target:

Top of the Flag was 6.67.  Bottom of the Flag was 5.51.  6.67 - 5.51 = 1.16 points.
Subtract that from the point of the break at 6.15. 
6.15 - 1.16 points = Target: 4.99, which was made on October 31.

2. On October 28, Double support at 5.75 was broken.

3. On October 28, the bottom of the Bear Flag at 5.51 also was taken out.

4. "The President's Bird Flu Speech" rally on November 1 ended at 5.55.  Former support (5.51) became resistance. (I was hoping for a rally to Triple Resistance at 6.00-ish, so I could short it).

5. On November 8, the "gap to crap" breakout above 5.55 failed near the open of 5.75, which was former Double support (see  #2).  Former support now is resistance.  The bears then reversed the opening breakout above 5.55 resistance, negating it, and also reversed the November 7 candle, putting in a Bearish Engulfing Pattern on higher volume.

[usedcasting]

Melf elf, as I have said before, I have really appreciated your analysis on SVA, again thanks. I understand that you are looking at it from a T.A. standpoint so I was just wondering if you have an re-entry point. I ask because obviously from a fundamental standpoint there is great potential for SVA. I am going to assume that resistance around $4.90 will not draw you in. I am grateful for your insights.

Thanks a lot!

uc

[Melf Elf]

I understand that you are looking at it from a T.A. standpoint so I was just wondering if you have an re-entry point.

uc,

Not while the bears are in control.

I ask because obviously from a fundamental standpoint there is great potential for SVA.

Given the Five Bear Moves in SVA since October 27, and given the fact that SVA enjoyed a rally of 380% from June to October, the good fundamentals "might be" already factored in.  Further good news might not translate into higher prices for SVA.  We'll just have to follow it, as best we can.

Yesterday's news from Toll Brothers (TOL) is a recent example of that.  The news was great at the July top.  Yesterday, CNBC reported that in  anOctober interview, the CEO gave a  bullish outlook for the years ahead, but he already had sold at the July top (I don't know what percentage of his holding). 

According to the same report, 26 other insiders sales took place while the news still was good.   

It's difficult to sort this stuff out.  The builders were very bullish for 5½ years.  Rather than try to interpret whether or not the outlook is as bullish as the CEO said it was in October, or to interpret the impact of interest rates on housing sales, etc., I'd rather look at the chart to see if I can determine anything.  (see TOL chart below). 

I am going to assume that resistance around $4.90 will not draw you in. .

You mean support, of course.  No, I'd have to pass.

[Stocky2000]

the street.com recommends sva  and getting pumped on stockhouse.com......is something up? the pumping starts...

SVA also mentioned in todays news of GNBT

Generex Biotech proposes collaborations in China for the co-development of a novel vaccine for pandemic Avian Influenza (GNBT) :Co announces that Antigen Express, its wholly owned immunotherapeutics subsidiary, has made proposals for co-development of the Antigen Express novel H5N1 avian influenza vaccine in China following a trip to Beijing by Dr. Minzhen Xu, the Antigen Express Vice-President of Biology. Proposals were made to: Professor Hualan Chen of the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute; Ms. Nan Wang, Vice General Manager of Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd.; and Professor Bing Sun of the Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. All have an interest in vaccine development for the H5N1 avian influenza in China.


Other related news today:

Wed Nov 9, 1:52 AM ET



BEIJING (AFP) - China warned a bird flu outbreak in northeastern Liaoning province had not yet been controlled and could become a disaster, mainly due to the use of fake and shoddy poultry vaccines.

"In Heishan county, Liaoning province, the epidemic is still serious," Agriculture Minister Du Qingling told the China News Service, two weeks after poultry started dying from the bird flu there.

"Efforts to wipe out the disease have been very difficult and the prevention work is arduous."

Over six million chickens, ducks and geese have been culled in the province since the outbreak, which was officially reported to the World Health Organisation on November 3.

Du slammed producers of low-quality vaccines that were being sold in Liaoning, saying such products could ruin government efforts to eradicate the H5N1 bird flu virus.

"The use of fake and shoddy vaccines will result in a disaster," Du said.

"If the vaccines are not up to standard, then immunization to the virus will not be uniform or effective. This could bring huge losses."

Farms in the region were highly concentrated, he said, meaning that any problems in vaccinating poultry could result in the epidemic spreading.

"If we miss the chance to exterminate the virus in the early stages, then the difficulty in wiping it out will increase by several times as will the spread of the epidemic," Du said.

"We must fully recognize that at present there is a possibility that the epidemic will spread and expand. This is not an exaggeration just to scare people."

Health authorities fear the bird flu could kill millions of people worldwide if the virus increases its capacity to jump the species barrier from birds to humans, and becomes an easily transissible human flu.

The bird flu has killed more than 60 people in Southeast Asia since 2003.

Although no human cases of the bird flu have been documented in China, the     World Health Organization is currently investigating whether three Chinese, one of whom has died, caught the disease in central Hunan province last month.

Du said the three outbreaks other than Liaoning -- in Hunan, Inner Mongolia and Anhui -- were all under control, describing the situations there as "rather good."

The government has allocated 10 million dollars to fight the disease in Liaoning and ordered police and the military to help in the cull

lets move up !

[rickjust]

hi,
i agree with melf elf on this.
look at todays volume . half of yesterday with only a slight move higher. the chart tells a story and most news and fundamentals get factored in before they happen . at least that is my limited experience . the ta will tell you where the stock is going because ( and now iam going to be alittle esoteric) it is history repeating and humans do the same thing over and over again . the study of charts, which ever way you do it will bear this out.  thats why we use swing charts and head and shoulders and candles etc. etc.
i hope this is alright . i don't mean to ramble but will be looking to short sva in the next few days.
thanks for putting up with me
maxi

[rickjust]

hi,
i agree with melf elf on this.
look at todays volume . half of yesterday with only a slight move higher. the chart tells a story and most news and fundamentals get factored in before they happen . at least that is my limited experience . the ta will tell you where the stock is going because ( and now iam going to be alittle esoteric) it is history repeating and humans do the same thing over and over again . the study of charts, which ever way you do it will bear this out.  thats why we use swing charts and head and shoulders and candles etc. etc.
i hope this is alright . i don't mean to ramble but will be looking to short sva in the next few days.
thanks for putting up with me
maxi

[tr][/tr]

oh,
and now that i said i would be looking to short you will probably find it safer to go long lol
thanks again,
maxi