SVA

[Lucas Scott]

I am going to hold and see what happens tomorrow. I expect tomorrow will be a small white candle.

Good call Luke!! Applaud   Today I sold the position I took on Friday for a small gain. Lunch money, no more. Now it's feeding time!

Luke Q

[Stocky2000]

Top reasons to buy this stock:
1. very bullish fast stochastics (in the past good entry)
2. MACD is increasing positve
3. MA 50 bounce
4. Fundamental story
5. Pandemie is coming sooner or later
6. Cramer and Stockhouse pumping this thing
7. 2nd rally will come
8. Chart looks good

Good night fellows

[Stocky2000]

9. possible that we get a sym. triangle
10. Volume decreases its good
11. Suddenly breakout of the sym triangle. with more Volume..

A couple of days patience ....

[Michael]

I read these messages about shorting SVA and by all means feel free if you really think that this is the best short out there but i can't help asking what in h... are you thinking?

This is one of the best fundamental picks out there but even if you believe it is overvalued and this technically is the best short in the stock market why would you short a stock that potentially can go up 100% without a chance to cover?

I am not questioning the value of TA but even technical analysis has its limitation. It can't predict the first human to human infection, the first bird flu in US, A case of SARS etc. etc.

But as said feel free. Shorts are an increasingly important player in the stock market. I know that many investors feel offended when their favorite stocks get shorted. I actually consider a large short position as a great asset unless the company needs to raise new capital . It gives you a nice support and will fuel a rally.

[logocovet]

I have to agree with the longs here.  China is a volcano that can explode anytime with Brid Flu.  Yesterday, China just admitted that the little girl that died supposedly of pnumonia actually had Brid Flu.  The girl, along with her brother and teacher, contracted bird flu after eating a sick chicken.

So, SVA can shoot up, not just on fundamentals, but on any Brid Flu news, which will come sooner or later. 

TA can't predict what kind of news is going to come.  Isn't shorting this a pure gamble? 

[rickjust]

hi,
i beg to differ that ta can't predict the event. well it can't predict the actual event but because it is all basically a vibrational and mathamatical equation it predicts something is going to happen in the future based o the time and price and what ever ta method you find most effective. because history and humans only ever repeat themselves. there is some fantastic examples of this kind of market prediction in the work of w.d. gann. "truth of the stock tape" and "45 years on wall street" you can get them through your local library. also an australian guy called david bowden had also predicted where the market would be to the minute one year in advance. of course world events coincide with the prediction. it is basically based on time and price. and looking back to look forward. so you may be right about sva . when i talk about shorting it , it would be very short term but the swing chart has gone sideways for now so i will wait to find out wich way it will head short term.
sorry to ramble on ,, open to any criticism,
thanks
maxi

[Michael]

Hi Rickjust,

I fully agree in your statement and I think that is a valid reason for either buying or selling SVA but we are talking about shorting SVA.

Let me try to illustrate it. This news is from last month:

HONG KONG : A study in Hong Kong has found that a local bat species carries a virus virtually identical to SARS, the pneumonia-like illness that killed hundreds in a worldwide outbreak, researchers said Sunday.

So the SARS virus is out there (as a lot of other "sleeping" viruses like ebola etc.) What you are saying is that TA shows the investors collective assessment about the likelihood a new human case in the foreseeable future. This is absolutely valid when you decide on selling and buying. But what if you short the stock today and BBC and CNN tonight publish this news:

BEIJING : The Chinese state TV has reported two cases of SARS in eastern China, the pneumonia-like illness that killed hundreds in a worldwide outbreak. WHO orders mass vaccination in the area

SVA is the only company with a vaccine so would the stock increase 100%, 200%, 300% at the opening. Well your guess is as good as mine but I for sure wouldn't like to be short 

There are oceans of good short candidates out there but SVA; hell no!

On another issue it seems like a number of Pharmaceuticals would like to sleep with our beauty. I hope she will be a very expensive lady 

Mike

[Stocky2000]

SVA
I agree with you michael..


BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 20, 2005--Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX:SVA - News) today announced that it will present at the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) Global Life Sciences Conference; has received a government grant for the development of an avian flu vaccine for humans; and received a USD 4.94 million dollar commercial credit line from a Chinese commercial bank.


With the Government in the back they have no stress and they will develop one vaccine against bird flu....

Sinovac's successful development of a seasonal influenza vaccine is a key element in technological transfer to the research and development of pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1). Currently, this vaccine development is in preclinical stage. Receiving GMP certification for Anflu(TM) will act as a catalyst for Sinovac's pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1) development.

SVA SVA SVA SVA

[Melf Elf]

I read these messages about shorting SVA and by all means feel free if you really think that this is the best short out there

Mike,

I'm not aware that anyone said that SVA was the best short out there.

but i can't help asking what in h... are you thinking?

What the h... I was thinking was that if SVA rallied to TRIPLE resistance near 6.00 (up and down blue arrows on the chart) on, or right after (November 1 and November 2)  Bush's bird flu speech, it was a decent short, technically.   

This is one of the best fundamental picks out there but even if you believe it is overvalued and this technically is the best short in the stock market

Again, I didn't say that it was the best short in the stock market.  It's a high beta stock, so the volatility can produce quick gains, e.g. shorting the November 8 "gap to crap" was worth better than 10% if covered at the close.

CKCM, a stock that many of us discussed this summer,  had good fundamentals and has recovered nicely from its recent decline, but it  lost 53% of its value from early August to early October.  It was a great short, but yes, there was risk if the shorts didn't cover somewhere at/near the 13.55 target.

why would you short a stock that potentially can go up 100% without a chance to cover?

That's true of any stock, e.g., on a takeover.  A gap up of 100% for a stock in this price range is unusual, but yes, it certainly can happen, and everyone should be aware of that.  It's a risk that you take when you short anything.

[rickjust]

hi,
i am very much a newbie and i am aware that there are many more better shorting candidates out there. i have only ever shorted once before and that was a few days ago on sva. i made a huge profit , of ........get ...this ..........52 cents. i had never done it before and i wanted to try it so i shorted 50 shares , based on my swing trading plan it was a good candidate , not the best out there i am sure but a good start for me. i am learning all the time
so happy trading to all and good luck to all longs on this stock,
thanks ,
maxi

[Stocky2000]

Thursday November 10, 1:54 PM
Influenza affects pigs, birds in China, kills man in Vietnam
(Kyodo) _ Bird flu virus was found in pigs bred in China's Hunan Province, which means the virus could be a step closer to infecting human in a large scale, according to reports in Hong Kong on Thursday, while Vietnam reported the first human death from the A H3 strain of bird flu.
Ming Pao Daily News quoted an interview on China's Phoenix Satellite TV in which a deputy agricultural minister in Hunan admitted the bird flu virus had been found in pigs for the first time.

Local and foreign health officials are still investigating whether a 12-year-old girl, her brother and another man in the province were infected with bird flu earlier last month. The girl died after eating a sick chicken, while the other two recovered from flu like illnesses.

The report said China's health ministry was notified of the pig infections and scientists were inspecting pigs in the surrounding area, but the provincial agricultural ministry later told Phoenix TV that the official who exposed the pig infections "made a mistake" and retracted what the official said.

A spokesman from the farm ministry said Thursday they have not gathered enough information to disclose further details.

"What has happened is still not very clear to us," the spokesman, who refused to be identified, said.     I AM:
a woman a man
I'M SEEKING:
a man a woman
With photo: 



The health ministry also refused to comment on the report and the Hong Kong government said it has yet to receive any notification about pigs infected with bird flu in Hunan.

Hong Kong had 18 people infected with the deadly bird flu virus H5N1 in 1997 -- six of them died -- and there are signs the virus is regaining its strength and spreading among migratory birds this fall from Russia to North America.

In Hanoi, a local health official who refused to be identified, reported a 43-year-old man has died of the type A H3 strain of bird flu, the first person in Vietnam to die of that virus strain.

The man from the northern city Haiphong was admitted to a hospital Nov. 1 and died the following day after being transferred to Viet-Tiep Hospital, an official at the hospital told Kyodo News.

The man had developed symptoms of high fever and breathing difficulties on his way back from Vung Tau where he had eaten chicken.

Samples from the patient were sent to the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology in Hanoi and test results confirmed he was infected with the type A H3 virus, the hospital official said.

At least one H3 virus currently circulating is said to be a variant of the "Hong Hong flu" virus prevalent in 1968 and has been called the "Fujian flu."

A total of 42 Vietnamese people have been killed by the often dangerous H5N1 virus since the first outbreak of that avian flu strain hit the country in 2003.

The World Health Organization has warned that up to 7 million people may die if a flu pandemic caused by avian influenza hits the world as humans do not have immunity against the virus.

Lo Wing-lok, an infectious disease expert in Hong Kong, said it is "not unexpected" that the pigs in Hunan could be infected with bird flu virus.

"Farmers do not separate their pigs from poultry in Hunan, making it possible for a chicken disease to infect pigs," Lo said. "In fact, pigs in Indonesia had been reported having contracted bird flu virus in 2004, where farmers placed the chicken cages on top of where they bred the pigs and fed the pigs with chicken droppings."

Since pigs can carry flu virus from different species, the virus could cross-mutate and allow bird flu to gain the ability to infect human, according to scientists.

"More species of bird flu virus found in pigs means higher chance for virus mutation and for humans to be infected," Lo said.

In Beijing, the World Organization for Animal Health reported late Wednesday that another 2,150 Chinese chickens have caught bird flu and 1,100 have died this week.

According to a Chinese Ministry of Agriculture report filed with the organization, a French intergovernmental disease information network, poultry in two villages in Liaoning Province of northeastern China fell sick with highly pathogenic avian influenza Sunday after exposure to wild birds.

The villages are in the cities of Fuxin and Jinzhou.

China's National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory in Harbin diagnosed the disease, the report said.

Authorities believe 11,590 birds in the affected areas are susceptible to the disease, and they destroyed 500,000 birds to prevent any disease spread, the farm ministry said.

They also have quarantined, disinfected and sprayed the affected areas. About 198 million animals have been vaccinated in the province.

This fall, China has reported other poultry bird flu outbreaks in Anhui and Hunan provinces plus the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

On Oct. 26, 8,940 poultry in another village in Liaoning Province died of bird flu and local authorities killed 369,900 birds in the Heishan County village to prevent the disease from spreading.

China has no reported cases of human infection of bird flu, which has occurred in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia since December 2003, with at least 62 of the 121 patients dying.

[Melf Elf]

hi,
i am very much a newbie and i am aware that there are many more better shorting candidates out there. i have only ever shorted once before and that was a few days ago on sva.   i made a huge profit , of ........get ...this ..........52 cents. i had never done it before and i wanted to try it so i shorted 50 shares

rickjust,

Congratulations on your trade. 

There might be better short candidates out there, but the bird flu group certainly has been an area worth considering, and it would be hard to find many stocks that have been a better short over the past two weeks than NVAX. 

Here are my comments on NVAX from two weeks ago:

I believe all this news that is coming out was forecasted and there fore not making that large of an impact. 

That reminds me of the market maxim: "When the news is great...it's too late."

In the late spring and through the summer, oil-related issues were the rage.  The price of crude oil continued to climb, but many of the stock issues topped out in early summer.

MPET, for example, rallied 300% in six short weeks, and that was it.  The rally was over.  While crude oil still is above $60, MPET nearly has had a parabolic return to where the rally began (see chart below).

NVAX, for example, has rallied 759% in the same period of time, about six weeks, that MPET rallied.

Although we will hear alot more news about bird flu and about contracts being awarded, etc., when I see a stock like SVA break serious support today, I have at least to consider the possibility that
"the news is great...but, it's too late." 

NVAX printed a high of 6.01 on October 26.  The low today was 2.99, for a better than 50% gain on the short side in only two weeks, if anyone shorted it. 

If anyone shorted NVAX at the November 1 Bush flu speech high of 5.05 on "news about contracts being awarded, etc," that's a 40% gain on the short side at today's 2.99 low.  Not bad.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:NVAX&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

[Melf Elf]

I am going to hold and see what happens tomorrow. I expect tomorrow will be a small white candle.

Good call Luke!!

Applaud   Today I sold the position I took on Friday for a small gain. Lunch money, no more. Now it's feeding time!

Luke Q

LukeQ,

lol on applauding yourself.   

I forgot this morning to say good going with the call and with your trade, which I applaud because you posted both the buy and the sell in a timely fashion.  I find that helpful.  Thanks.

[logocovet]

Just got my applaud/smite privliges.  Appluase to you for all the good TA I've learned from your posts.   

It seems you're very right about the bird flu stocks.  I'm still holding NVAX and it got creamed today.  I had tried to put in a stop this morning before I went out but I couldn't  because of the wierd bid/ask in pre-market. (it was 0 and 99).  TDwaterhouse has it that the stop price has to be .05 below the bid.  Same thing fhappened for HEB, another slaughter today.

Melf Elf, do you see them rebounding from here?  I have the immediate reaction to sell @ the open but I've  learned that panic selling is not the way to trade.  Also, the NVAX stock picking board has alot of members talking about going long.  I'd appreciate your advice on this.

SVA seemed to hold pretty strong today in ralation to NVAX and HEB.

Good luck all.   

[Melf Elf]

I'm still holding NVAX and it got creamed today.  I had tried to put in a stop this morning before I went out but I couldn't  because of the wierd bid/ask in pre-market. (it was 0 and 99).  TDwaterhouse has it that the stop price has to be .05 below the bid

logocovet,

It's a shame that happened.  Yesterday morning's open in NVAX was a break of important support:

1. The prior low (October 28) of 3.37.
2. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 3.355.
3. Trendline 2 (T2).

Melf Elf, do you see them rebounding from here?

My standard response is "I have no idea...you're guess is as good as mine," and I mean that literally.  We can make "educated" guesses, certainly, but we're still guessing about the next move in a stock.

If this were yesterday morning, a good "educated" guess would have been that, since the October 28 low of 3.37 held on Wednesday (the low was 3.40), and since NVAX rallied a little into the close at 3.48 and held at trendline 2 (T2) support on a closing basis, it's a reasonable "educated" guess to expect NVAX to rally off that hold of support.

Reasonable guess, but NVAX closed down 14% yesterday. 

Your stop would have protected you against that kind of loss, which is why we use them, in case our "educated" guess is wrong.  Unfortunately, you weren't able to sell.

  Also, the NVAX stock picking board has alot of members talking about going long.  I'd appreciate your advice on this.

There's been alot of speculation on the long side in NVAX.  Speculation about the next low.  Speculation about "buying more" as the stock goes down.  Looking for reasons to be bullish about the stock.  I would advise looking at the chart in an effort to see if all of that bullishness has been borne out.

In other words, be careful about automatically interpreting something as bullish or bearish.  For example, my understanding is that NVAX was listed at the top of Merrill Lynch's NNX (Nanotech Index) on November 9.  Is that bullish or bearish?  I don't know.  What was the market's reaction on November 10?  NVAX broke important support.  See what I mean?

Anecdotally, Merrill Lynch began the BHH (Business To Business HOLDRS) in February, 2000, at the height of the "B2B" internet craze. The BHH was a "had to own" when it came out.  "Bricks and sticks" companies were passe, and considered to be dinosaurs back then. The BHH topped out two weeks later at $111.00 and now is at $2.56, down 98%.

We don't want automatically to infer from that example anything terribly bearish for NVAX.  Let's just be aware that these things aren't automatically bullish, either.  We only want to say that the market's first reaction yesterday to NVAX's listing at the top of the NNZ wasn't bullish.

Another example: Institutions are said to have been accumulating NVAX.  Should we interpret that as bullish or bearish?  I don't know, but we do know that any positions that they have taken since October 18 are under water, as much as 50% under water if they bought the October 26 top, and as much as 40% under water is they bought Bush's "bird flu speech" top on November 1.

As far as your decision about NVAX is concerned, logocovet, here are some things to consider:

1. When NVAX broke T3 support on October 28, it found support at the 50% Fibonnaci retracement level (3.355...low was 3.37), and rallied for two days, back to the bottom of broken T3.

2. Absent a rally directly from here, these are some possible support levels:

a. 2.726 - the .618 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 10-11 highs, prior to the T3 acceleration, were 2.74 and 2.76, adding some additional possible support at this level)

b. 2.55 - the 50DMA

c. 2.10 - T1 support

d. 1.77 - the 200DMA

Good luck!