SVA

[cumulina]

Good post, Melf Elf.

I wonder if this could have any influence on the sudden interest for SVA...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/14/content_3778964.htm

[Melf Elf]

I wonder if this could have any influence on the sudden interest for SVA...

cumulina,

Thanks for the link to that article.  It's good to see SVA finally responding to good news.  That was a big concern that I had last week for the bird flu stocks, to have so much good news with no bullish response, and even breaks of support (NVAX), in the stocks.

[Melf Elf]

Sometimes on quick runs to the target, like this would be on another big rally today, the stock rallies just short of the target, then there is a pretty good pull back. 

The early morning quick run to the target ended at 6.50.  That was a gain of 33% in only two days, so profit-taking set in, and SVA pulled back 13% to 5.65, then closed at 5.80.

When it does happen, after I've seen the pullback, I've wished that I had gone ahead and taken the profit on the "close enough" approach to the target.  That's a trader's decision that we all have to make.  It's  something to consider today, particularly if we're at your 6.65, or at the 6.68-6.70 broken neckline re-test near the end of today's trading.

 

We didn't get to the 6.65 area or above, but you see what I meant here 

Traders "sold into strength" yesterday morning, which isn't unusal after the nice two-day gain.  What would have been unusual, would have been to see the 6.81 target get made yesterday, right after the 6.19 target was made the day before.  It usually isn't that easy.

The two-day rally of 33%, from 4.89 to 6.50, was 1.61 points.  Here are the standard Fibonnaci retracement levels:

.382% - 5.895 (We got that)
.500% - 5.695 (We went slightly below that, to 5.65)
.618% - 5.505

If SVA sells off any more from here, I would expect solid support to be at that .618% retracement level.  While some technicians consider retracements beyond .618% still to be acceptable for a pullback, I think most technicians don't like to see anything beyond the .618% level, before becoming concerned that it's something more than a normal retracement.

With SVA, what strengthens the case for the .618% retracement level of 5.505 being solid support on any further selloff, is that's the neckline of the Inverse H&S breakout on Monday, basis the intraday chart, which makes 5.505 DOUBLE support.

If 5.505 isn't support, especially on a closing basis, I would view SVA only as neutral.  That would be weak, after the very nice Four Bull Moves on Monday.

[Melf Elf]

I like this consolidation the past two days, after the 33% run-up to 6.50. 

Basis the hourly chart, we've got a Symmetrical Triangle forming so far, which "should" resolve in a continuation to the upside since SVA broke out to the upside out of the "W"-bottom.

If SVA should sell off from here, picture what this chart would like if we sell off to the .618 Fibonacci retracement level of 5.505: we'd have a bull flag...lower highs and lower lows.

Overall, SVA looks fine as long as 5.505 would hold on any re-test.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

[vic666]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/17/content_495404.htm

Vaccine team prepared if virus mutates
By Zhang Feng (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-11-17 05:56


The scientist who led the team which produced China's first vaccine for human infections of bird flu has said his company is ready even if the virus mutates.

"The vaccine we have now is specifically against H5N1 bird flu. But we are also capable of producing vaccines against other types of influenza if the virus develops into other forms," said Yin Weidong, managing director of Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech Co Ltd.

Yin, the leader of the expert group that began to develop the vaccine on March 17, 2004, told China Daily in an exclusive interview that his company is awaiting official approval for testing on humans.

His enterprise has set up all facilities for production, quality control and vaccine storage, Yin said.

The original virus used for the research was obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) laboratories, and it was proved that it can cause bird flu in chicken, rats and other animals.

Scientists also proved that the vaccine developed from the H5N1 virus could cause anti-bodies in rats and was effective in animal tests, Yin noted.

It is based on this experience that Yin is confident of developing other vaccines against various types of bird flu.

Experts are getting set for human testing, which might be carried out in some big hospitals in Beijing, but no volunteers have been recruited yet.

Lin Jiangtao, the top doctor in respiratory diseases at Sino-Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said that he was preparing for the test.

Lin was the lead doctor in human tests of a vaccine against SARS, which was also developed and produced by Yin's enterprise.

Yin said although the bird flu vaccine cannot be used before it passes human tests, it might be injected among some high-risk groups such as doctors and poultry workers should a human pandemic break out, Yin said.

So far the only available medication which has been proven to be effective against bird flu is the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, produced by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche Holding AG.

[logocovet]

Melf Elf,

My TA consists of glancing @ StockTA and seeing if there is more green or red 

Right now, SVA looks pretty good as there is alot of green.     Also MACD crossover and no resistance until 7.76.

Thanks for the NVAX advice.  Your were quite right about it finding support.  Right now  I have a stop @ 3.40 below pretty solid support @ 3.44.  What do  U think?

[logocovet]

The Chinese govt admited today to their first case of bird flu.  This means that they were lying before when they said that the girl in question DID NOT have bird flu.  We're are not sure how far the lie goes.  This is very interesting..

The unofficial Chinese news site Boxun.com, which was the first to break news about SARS in China, yesterday published a detailed breakdown of human bird flu infections in the country, including claims that there has been human to human spread, widespread quarantine, and at least 310 deaths so far this year. If true, the report would be the first indication that the situation in the country is far more serious than the Chinese government is willing to admit. China officially claims to have had no human infections.

http://www.iflu.org/?p=9263

[Melf Elf]

Melf Elf,

My TA consists of glancing @ StockTA and seeing if there is more green or red 

logocovet,

lol.  Sounds good to me.  The simpler the better, eh?   

Right now, SVA looks pretty good as there is alot of green.     Also MACD crossover and no resistance until 7.76.

Yeah, SVA is doing fine.  We had a gap up this morning, out of the Symmetrical Triangle that I mentioned yesterday.  We're now working on another pattern, an Ascending Triangle. A breakout is above the flat top: the two highs at 6.50, so a print of 6.51.

Math:

6.50 High - 5.65 low (on November 15) = 0.85 points

6.50 + 0.85 points = Target: 7.35 IN PLAY

We might have to go down first, and fill this morning's gap, but this looks fine.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Thanks for the NVAX advice.  Your were quite right about it finding support.  Right now  I have a stop @ 3.40 below pretty solid support @ 3.44.  What do  U think?

Glad that it worked out for you.  On the 10-minute chart, short-term support is 3.33.  It's been hit four times since yesterday afternoon at 2:30. Personally, I'd use a break below that.

[cumulina]

Melf Elf - I'm very interested in your comments here, but are you quite sure about what you said here: (I don't know how to insert a quote, so I'll just cut/paste)

"Glad that it worked out for you.  On the 10-minute chart, short-term support is 3.33.  It's been hit four times since yesterday afternoon at 2:30. Personally, I'd use a break below that."

I don't understand what you mean?

I really do not hope that SVA will see 3.33 again...At least not as long as I own it. 

[cumulina]

Oooops! My mistake.  After posting, I realize that you were talking about NVAX in that part of your post.

= (Embarrassed.)

[vic666]

check this link out: (gotta zoom onto the coat pocket of the premier to be able to see
"S I N O V A C" label).


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/18/content_495759.htm

I mean, c'mon, how often do you see the country's leader visit a Chinese company whose shares are publicly traded on the American markets???

How cool is that?

[Melf Elf]

Yeah, SVA is doing fine.  We had a gap up this morning, out of the Symmetrical Triangle that I mentioned yesterday.  We're now working on another pattern, an Ascending Triangle. A breakout is above the flat top: the two highs at 6.50, so a print of 6.51.

Math:

6.50 High - 5.65 low (on November 15) = 0.85 points

6.50 + 0.85 points = Target: 7.35 IN PLAY

We might have to go down first, and fill this morning's gap, but this looks fine.

I very much like how SVA has been acting lately.  Nice consolidation of the recent gains. 
It's knocking on the door for another breakout, above the top of the Ascending Triangle,
which is 6.50. 

SVA currently is BID 6.46...ASK 6.47.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

[Melf Elf]

Breakout of the Ascending Triangle at 2:07PM, so we've now got two upside targets.  This Ascending Triangle breakout puts 7.35 IN PLAY.  We'll see if we get follow-through, but this is nice chart action, as it stands.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

[thai626]

Breakout of the Ascending Triangle at 2:07PM, so we've now got two upside targets.  This Ascending Triangle breakout puts 7.35 IN PLAY.  We'll see if we get follow-through, but this is nice chart action, as it stands.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Very Nice call Melf Elf!!!  There are a lot of great people in this forum who knows either fundamentals/technical analysis or sometimes both. 
I enjoy your posts. Keep up the good work!

[brandyjoco]

Have you seen the latest news on SVA dated November 19, 2005:

The Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the first in the world to develop SARS vaccine, said Friday it has made preparations to produce human-use bird flu vaccine in mass quantity.

Sinovac has installed a special production line for the human-use bird flu vaccine, said Yin Weidong. general manager of the company, which is working with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention to research bird flu human vaccine.
"We have applied for human clinical trials for the vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration and the vaccine can be put into production once the clinical trials complete," said Yin, adding the price of the vaccine could be lower than the commonly-used flu vaccines.

Chinese scientists have developed a bird flue vaccine for human use and will carry out clinical tests in days.

"Tests show that the vaccine is highly safe," said Yin.

Founded in 2001, Sinovac, known in China as Beijing Kexing Bioproducts Limited Company, focuses on manufacturing and marketing human-use vaccines and related products for infectious diseases such as Hepatitis A and Hepatitis B, influenza and SARS.

The company was designated to cooperate with the state disease control and prevention center to carry out the research and development for human-use bird flu vaccine, to be used for preventing the disease among humans, since the epidemic among birds was first found in March 2004.

"We get the virus samples from the lab of the influenza center under the World Health Organization and the research is going on well," said Yin.

"If the bird flu virus mutates, we can develop new vaccines in four months," said Yin.

Millions of chickens, ducks, geese and other poultry have been culled after bird flu outbreaks were reported in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui provinces this year.

China's health authorities have confirmed on Wednesday the first two human infection cases of bird flu in the country, and enhanced efforts to prevent and control the epidemic.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao inspected the workshops of bird flu vaccine and medicine for human use in Sinovac on Thursday and called for new progress on the research and development of the bird flu vaccine.