SVA

[cumulina]

News keeps coming out about SVA.

One good website to check frequently is:

http://www.biomedicalstocks.com/avianflu.asp

I don't know how often WHO updates their alerts on the website, but here is the current:


http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Another site with wurrysome news is this:

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

...where you can find a map showing the spreading of Avian Flu month by month...


Color coded circles for wild bird H5N1:(confirmed or suspected in confirmed location)
May = Blue June = Orange July = Yellow August 15 = Green August 31 = Red September = Purple
October = White Current = Azure
Green or Red squares are unconfirmed bird deaths in unconfirmed locations

The Yahoo board for SVA is a very sober one, providing good links and surprisingly little of the trashy remarks otherwise common to Yahoo-boards.

I added some SVA friday, unfortunately I think that this stock is one that will rise a lot. Unfortunately - because that might be because the virus is mutating and spreading.

It does puzzle me that a vaccine has been found, and can be produced.
Something is not right.
Would it not be nessescary to have samples of the mutated (person-to-person) form of the virus, in order to produce a vaccine for it?
But maybe there has already been person-to-person cases?
Maybe the governments are a little behind on reporting fatalaties?
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.H5N1LiaoningDeathListBoxun

If the H5N1 is as bad as it seems, and if it spreads as fast as it seems...Then I'm really more inclined to go cash, stock up on food, water and candles - and go hybernate!
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/files/ComingPandemic.pdf

I'm getting a bit scared and would like some reassurance that this thing is not going to turn our world upside-down.

Sorry if I have ruined your sunday.

[cumulina]

These two looks interesting:


"H5N1 infections in humans can cause serious disease and death. An inactivated vaccine to protect humans against influenza A (H5N1) is not yet available, but a candidate vaccine is undergoing human clinical trials in the United States. The H5N1 viruses currently infecting birds and some humans in Asia are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, two antiviral medications commonly used to treat influenza. The H5N1 viruses are susceptible to the antiviral medications oseltamivir and zanamivir, but the effectiveness of these drugs when used for treatment of H5N1 virus infection is unknown. For more information about influenza antiviral drugs, see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/treatment"

http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/avian_influenza_se_asia_2005.htm



"Influenza Vaccine Development and Testing: Leveraging scientific expertise, the United States and China will work together to evaluate, improve and expedite the production of human and animal vaccines against influenza in order to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic. The United States and China will jointly perform research on human and animal virus samples in order to develop human and animal vaccines. The United States is prepared to provide technical assistance for influenza vaccine development and on quality-assurance for vaccine production and testing, as well as financial assistance for supplies and equipment."

and the last sentence:

"The United States will work with China to meet regulatory certification requirements so that China can supply vaccine regionally or globally."

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/57157.htm

[valueseeker]

Human vaccines for bird flu granted fast-track checks.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/20/content_3806817.htm

Once SVA is granted this status, presumably within a few weeks, people will jump in to fund its 20M doses influenza vaccine facility, which can also be used for bird flu. The sell price of an influenze flu vaccine in China is US$10, which gives a $200M revenue with a huge profit margin. This is on top of Hep-A/B vaccine revenue it is ramping up. SVA closed Friday with a market cap of US$236M

Bird flu or not, SVA is hugely undervalued.

[1reilly]

Just watched a round table on "Meet The Press" which included Sec M. Levitt, Dr. M. Ryan, World Health Org, Dr. Fauci,National Institue of Health, And Gerberding of Center for Disease Control. Major points made in my opinion were:
A. We need a vaccine Tamiflu is not the answer.
B. Must significantly improve our prodution capacity with emphasis on cellular development
C. Must streamline movement through FDA
D.Must remove liabilty problems for providers
E. Statement by Fauci that we have a vaccine in testing, but could not provide a name.
F. No companies or Country where disclosed.
G. Russert did not press china development issues. When he asked Fauci about China Fauci responded with his concern for tight safety issues compared to FDA standards. Later Sec Levitt states we're going to reduce the time for FDA approval. I got the feeling that the goal was to show that U.S. agencies were the ones to solve this problem. Why no mention of today's commentary regarding US-China cooperation. Struck me as strange.
H. 3-5 years to provide 300mil doses. Big business for someone.
One must be concerned when a half hour conversation between the four most powerful leaders in US regarding this issue provide what many would call Spin.
Just my thoughts but this is a real problem. Real problems lead to real business. SVA and NVAX will be in the news for some time to come.

[logocovet]

Just read an article in Esquire on why there won't be a  Bird Flu epidemic.

http://www.keepmedia.com/pubs/Esquire/2005/12/01/1078552

[la-onda]

NEWS OUT (posted from brandyjoco, now again with LINKs  )

1.)
China prepare to mass-produce bird flu vaccine for humans font size 
The Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the first in the world to develop SARS vaccine, said Friday it has made preparations to produce human-use bird flu vaccine in mass quantity.
Sinovac has installed a special production line for the human-use bird flu vaccine, said Yin Weidong. general manager of the company, which is working with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention to research bird flu human vaccine.
"We have applied for human clinical trials for the vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration and the vaccine can be put into production once the clinical trials complete," said Yin, adding the price of the vaccine could be lower than the commonly-used flu vaccines.
Chinese scientists have developed a bird flue vaccine for human use and will carry out clinical tests in days.
"Tests show that the vaccine is highly safe," said Yin.
Founded in 2001, Sinovac, known in China as Beijing Kexing Bioproducts Limited Company, focuses on manufacturing and marketing human-use vaccines and related products for infectious diseases such as Hepatitis A and Hepatitis B, influenza and SARS.
The company was designated to cooperate with the state disease control and prevention center to carry out the research and development for human-use bird flu vaccine, to be used for preventing the disease among humans, since the epidemic among birds was first found in March 2004.
"We get the virus samples from the lab of the influenza center under the World Health Organization and the research is going on well," said Yin.
"If the bird flu virus mutates, we can develop new vaccines in four months," said Yin.
Millions of chickens, ducks, geese and other poultry have been culled after bird flu outbreaks were reported in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui provinces this year.
China's health authorities have confirmed on Wednesday the first two human infection cases of bird flu in the country, and enhanced efforts to prevent and control the epidemic.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao inspected the workshops of bird flu vaccine and medicine for human use in Sinovac on Thursday and called for new progress on the research and development of the bird flu vaccine.
Source: Xinhua

link: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/19/eng20051119_222452.html

2)
Chinese Prime Minister has visited SVA:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/18/eng20051118_222123.html

[la-onda]

BEIJING, Nov. 20 (Xinhuanet) -- Human vaccines for
bird flu and other epidemics will go through
fast-track government examination procedures for
timely production to combat the virus, according to a
notice issued by China's State Food and Drug
Administration (SFDA) on Saturday.

SFDA has initiated a set of special procedures to
quicken the examination and approval of medicines for
treating epidemics that trigger public health concern,
said the notice.

Human-use vaccines for bird flu developed by Chinese
companies will enjoy the privilege, while SFDA will
conduct feasibility study before the application is
filed and learn about the progress of the medicine's
research and development in the early stage of
medicine registration application.

Processing application, on-the-spot check,
technological examination and evaluation, registration
examination and follow-up monitoring of the medicines
will be carried out immediately after receiving the
registration application, according to the notice.

Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the
first in the world to develop a SARS (severe acute
respiratory syndrome) vaccine, has applied to SFDA for
human clinical tests on human-usebird flu vaccine. The
company said it would start mass production once the
clinical trials are successful. Enditem

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Sinovac_Investors_Group/message/3288

[Melf Elf]

The W-bottom pattern that we discussed yesterday morning took 12 days from the break of DOUBLE support at 5.75 on October 28 to emerge and to break out yesterday to the upside.

The pattern target of 6.81 is IN PLAY, and the time estimation for reaching the target would be 12 days hence, or no later than Friday,  December 1

The pattern target of 6.81 MADE at the open, well ahead of schedule.

[owen654321]

Just want to point out BBC, another chinese equity.  Not only is it undervalued, but it is growing and profitable.  I don't expect any movement any time soon, but it will pop some day... I believe it's one to keep on the radar screens.  Any of the experts on the board feel like doing a quick TA on it?

Just a quick note... BBC has been up over 20+% the last few days and has just broken out to new highs.  Wish I could have picked it for the contest..... sigh.  (It didn't have enough average daily volume last month).

[owen654321]

    

BBC up 33% today on 10x average volume   Ok, I know it's off-topic, but I just had to give myself a pat on the back for buying the stock in the mid $6's   And I'd be kicking butt in the contest if it only had traded 100k/avg shares per day in October.  Darn!    Oh well, can't complain, KOMG is doing well too.  Now if only MESA would stop dropping like a rock, I would be thrilled... too much to ask for, perhaps? 

[brandyjoco]

SVA did really well today. Almost closed at HOD...

[Lucas Scott]

^ Yes, nice close! And RSI is still in the sweet spot at 64.3. My target sell price is $7.75, a retest of the mid-October high.

[brandyjoco]

When that time comes I think I will look at the chart and put a tight stop. Who knows ?  Maybe it will blow through that last top. Right now the chart seems very strong...

[cumulina]

I have no idea where this could go, but with news coming out several times a day there shouldn't be any reason for it to go anywhere but - up?

I was pretty impressed to see it stay above 7.- ... not to mention the nice trades A.H.

(I must admit that to me it's a weird feeling hoping that SVA will continue up. I hope they'll have a lot of orders to fill, for emergency stockpiling only!)

[la-onda]

SVA: Short Interest UP 227.5% to 841.2K in Nov 2005

Monday , November 21, 2005 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) INCREASED 227.5% to 841,243 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL     OCTOBER        NOVEMBER        CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SVA              256,856         841,243        +584,387      +227.52%           1
Based on SVA's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,103,500, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.


Public Companies Associated with this story:
(AMEX: SVA)       

Knobias Subject Codes Associated with this story:
Short Interest       


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