SVA

[Melf Elf]

Hi, Melf Elf!
I'm a newbie in the market.
I'm holding this one right now and I'm not sure what I should do at this point (I lost some).
What is you opinion about this stock and what do you think the next support is going to be?

Hi, minkielover,

I'm lousy at predicting, which is why I try to follow trends.  I sold SVA on December 5 after it broke three levels of support: (1) an up trendline; (2) the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud); and, (3) the 50DMA. 

Today's action is another break of important support (4.82-4.85), so if I had owned it here, I would have had to sell that break, right or wrong, to limit my risk.  I'm not advising, though.

SVA tanked from 4.82-4.85 support to 4.60 in just four minutes this morning, so the market clearly recognized that break of support. 

SVA currently is BID 4.77...ASK 4.80, trying to re-test former support at 4.82-4.85.  That level "should be" resistance now.  If SVA can stage a strong upside reversal during the remainder of today, then this morning's tank could be a fakeout to the downside.  A close below 4.82-4.85 isn't going to look good, though.   

I'd just suggest that you have a plan for how much risk you are willing to take.  It's tough to take losses, but you don't want them to turn into disasters.

Good luck with your decision!

[sebfr]

Analysis on SVA By using "Fibonacci retracement tools" and "Support and Resistance"...

Look at doc word. We will try to find a good buy entry at about 3.80-3.90...

[la-onda]

why not using the main SVA board? 

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2469.405

[minkielover]

Thank you so much for your reply, Melf Elf!
I'm going to watch today's reaction and decide what I'm going to do.
I'm glad at least I'm making some on NVAX to minimize the loss in SVA 
Thanks again!

[cumulina]

Hmmmm...I'm not quite sure what is going on with SVA today, but as I've decided to hold it for a while, I put in a bid at 4.63...and got it, adding to my position. 

I don't think Bird-Flu will fade away anytime soon. Unfortunately. And as long as the Chinese government is backing up SVA, I think it'll be all-right.

This is turning into a long term investment for me.

[lbotez]

This stock has hit bottom and is now turning around. 

Daily chart: http://trimurl.com/3KE

hourly chart: http://trimurl.com/3KF

get in now, heading back up

this is a china bird flu stock; they got money from the Chinese government for vacine...

going up!

[jorgegr]

Ibotez

Why not using the main SVA board?? Thanks

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2469.405

jorgegr

[la-onda]

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8478

Tests dash hopes of rapid production of bird flu vaccine

The results of first large-scale trials of a low-dose vaccine against H5N1 bird flu have been announced – and they are unexpectedly disappointing. Scientists had hoped that very low doses of vaccine virus would make humans immune if injected along with an immune-stimulating chemical called an adjuvant.

But on Thursday, French vaccine company Sanofi pasteur announced that in tests on 300 people in France, they did not. "The prospects for adequate global supplies of an effective pandemic vaccine of any kind are dimmer now than they were last week," David Fedson, founder of the vaccine industry's pandemic task force, told New Scientist.

The first tests of H5N1 vaccine in the US in August 2005 found that the virus on its own does not stimulate much immunity in people. To elicit enough to ward off disease, a vaccine required 90 micrograms of the virus's main surface protein - six times more than is needed in ordinary flu vaccine.

The less virus is required per dose of vaccine, the more doses vaccine factories can produce in the limited time that will be available to immunise people at the start of a pandemic. Research with other types of bird flu have found such low-dose vaccines are possible, if the virus is combined with an adjuvant.
Antibody response

So Sanofi tested various doses of a vaccine virus based on the H5N1 that killed people in Vietnam in 2004, plus the most widely used adjuvant, alum. But no dose under 30 micrograms elicited enough antibodies to meet official standards for flu vaccines.

This means, says Fedson, that "if all the world's influenza vaccine companies were to produce this vaccine for six months, there would be enough to vaccinate only 225 million people".

"Thirty micrograms is obviously too high," says Agnes Hoffenbach, Sanofi's head of pandemic vaccine research. "In our next studies we will try and get lower doses to work."

One problem may be the adjuvant. The earlier studies of other types of bird flu used one called MF59, patented by the US firm Chiron. Supplies are limited and it is not yet approved for human use in the US and some other countries.
Split virus

Another problem could be that Sanofi's vaccine contained a split virus, rather than whole, killed virus. Split viruses are used for standard flu vaccines, as they elicit fewer side effects, but whole viruses are suspected to be more immunogenic.

China's Sinovac company is now testing a whole-virus H5N1 vaccine with alum. Takato Odagiri, head of the flu virus lab at Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases, reported at an international meeting in Malta in September that in his tests, whole-virus H5N1 vaccines seemed more immunogenic than split virus. He is now focusing his research solely on whole-virus vaccines.

But Hoffenbach told New Scientist: "I don't think we will look at whole virus vaccines." They would require new manufacturing processes that would have to be tested and approved. "We used our existing process because it is the fastest way to move to large-scale production." Tests of Sanofi H5N1 vaccine planned in the US for 2006 will also use split virus.

Fedson says more avenues should be tried. "The prospects for developing a pandemic vaccine that can be produced in the quantities the world will demand are now enormously more difficult," he says. "We have much more work to do."

[SeeingGreen]

China is heating up again 8-12% gdp projected till 2035 now thats a booming economy

[la-onda]

nice presentation:

http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/diseases/influenza/Zhang.pdf

[cumulina]

Thank you for the links, la-onda.

I still hold my SVA, bought at 5.015...so I'm about 10% down now.
I do not want to let go of them.

Found these rather disturbing news:

Link to whole article here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=arc6yngrteHE&refer=asia

World Is Losing Battle to Combat Bird Flu, UN Says (Update1)
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The world is ``losing the battle'' against avian flu in poultry, increasing the risk the gradually mutating virus will become more infectious to people and trigger an influenza pandemic, a United Nations official said.

Outbreaks among birds in Ukraine, Romania and possibly Africa show the deadly H5N1 avian flu strain is spreading, David Nabarro, the UN's avian flu coordinator, told Indonesian government officials and reporters today in Jakarta. Earlier, a health ministry official said an eight-year-old boy, who died four days ago, may be Indonesia's 11th bird-flu fatality.

``We are losing the battle against this particular'' avian influenza outbreak in birds, Nabarro said. ``We must focus on stamping it out.''

Human infections from H5N1 have more than doubled this year, prompting health authorities to warn that more needs to be done to control outbreaks in poultry, which increase the risk of the virus mutating and causing a pandemic that may kill millions.

[Melf Elf]

I was looking at SVA from the standpoint of a possible Bullish Gartley. If 4.82-4.85 support doesn't hold here, it would be interesting if we decline to your Point #5 and reach 4.34 and hold there, which would be a symmetry of both price and time. 

It took an extra week, but the Gartley target of 4.34 MADE yesterday.  The low was 4.30.

[sebfr]

Right La-onda

[sebfr]

Analysis on SVA By using "Fibonacci retracement tools" and "Support and Resistance"...

Look at doc word. We will try to find a good buy entry at about 3.80-3.90...

[KCScott]

News.......

AP
Sinovac Starts Bird Flu Vaccine Trial
Wednesday December 21, 4:00 pm ET 
Sinovac Biotech Starts Human Study of Potential Bird Flu Vaccine; Shares Climb 8.3 Percent

NEW YORK (AP) -- China's Sinovac Biotech Ltd. said Wednesday that it started a human study of its vaccine for the bird flu strain that scientists say has pandemic potential.
The drug maker's shares rose 34 cents, or 8.3 percent, to $4.45 in afternoon trading on the American Stock Exchange.

Sinovac said it expects this first study to take nine months, though preliminary results will be available in March. The trial includes 120 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18 and 60. The company said it has already given the vaccine to six volunteers at a hospital in Beijing.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has devastated poultry populations across Asia and killed more than 70 people since it first appeared more than two years ago. Still, the virus is not easily transmitted between humans and most human cases have been tied to contact with infected birds.

Chinese regulators have condensed the usual approval process for the vaccine, requiring two studies instead of three, to speed its review.

Currently, the most effective treatment for the virus is a drug called Tamiflu that is made by Roche Holding Ltd.

Still long at 4.95