SVA

[Ramsburg]

Thanks for the input Ket1390, despite this recent news, the bird flu related stocks are not getting any action yet

Update:
SVA is still holding above its ascending support line, the main reversal pattern is still alive, therefore we'll keep holding it for now.

Trading Plan:
Hold SVA

[tokyopua]

Thanks for the input Ket1390, despite this recent news, the bird flu related stocks are not getting any action yet

A lot of them seeemed to get a little pop yesterday around the time this was reported, but the fact that it wasnt proved yet to be the most virulent strain of the virus probably was the reason that the pop didnt last.  But it is just a small taste of what flu season will bring to these stocks longer term, its just hard to get the timing just right. 

Of course, if further testing on those wild swans does turn out positive for the virulent strains, expect major action, as that would be the first real landing of bird flu on US soil.

[Melf Elf]

tokyopua,

here's the chart that i mentioned in qqqq folder.

yesterday was another bullish doji star hammer.  the low of 2.06 was smack on the bottom of the bear flag, validating it as support.  sva needs to rally for confirmation, of course.

2.35 is year-long resistance, back to july, 2005. see my longer-term chart on page 35, if interested.  the 50dma is at 2.409, but coming down hard.  then resistance at the top of the bear flag, at about 2.565 for today's trading.

a lot of resitance.  if you got in near this level, you might want to think about selling some into resistance.  bird flu news could generate interest, but then the reality of all of that overehead resistance sets in. 

just a suggetion.  good luck to everyone.

[Melf Elf]

yesterday was another bullish doji star hammer.  the low of 2.06 was smack on the bottom of the bear flag, validating it as support.  sva needs to rally for confirmation, of course.

yesterday's candlestick wasn't so hot.  today, the bottom of the bear flag comes in at 2.0885, which was violated about 45 minutes ago with a print of 2.07.  the good news is that friday's 2.06 low held, and sva bounced.  i wouldn't want to see that 2.06 low get taken out.

sva currently is back near yesterday's open of 2.20, now at bid 2.17...ask 2.18.

2.35 is year-long resistance, back to july, 2005. see my longer-term chart on page 35, if interested.

if sva can print 2.21, the intraday rectangle pattern breakout would put a target of 2.34 IN PLAY, right below that 2.35 resistance.  i'll post the intraday chart next. 

[Melf Elf]

a breakout above this rectangle would put 2.34 IN PLAY, as long as sva trades above 2.20.

math:

high is 2.20

low is 2.06

2.20 - 2.06 = 0.14 points

2.20 + 0.14 = target: 2.34 IN PLAY

a lot of resitance.  if you got in near this level, you might want to think about selling some into resistance.  bird flu news could generate interest, but then the reality of all of that overehead resistance sets in.

sva isn't doing much here with the general market rallying the past couple of days.  volume only is 63,000 shares so far today.   it might not be a bad idea to bank some if it rallies to resistance, and see what happens if you want to keep the rest of it.  the 50 dma, btw, was at 2.38 yesterday.  still coming down hard.

just a suggestion.  i don't own it.  good luck everybody. 

[Ramsburg]

Thanks for your suggestion and analysis Melf (applaud) Yes, SVA is not doing much with such a market move in place, but at least the support was not broken and it shows a positive reaction

Update:
SVA is still holding above its ascending support line, some positive reactions there, but volume is still missing. This last few candles suggests that some accumulation, and the overall reversal pattern is still in place, although we need some strength signs quick or else we may have to drop this position.

Trading Plan:
Hold SVA

[Melf Elf]

Thanks for your suggestion and analysis Melf (applaud) Yes, SVA is not doing much with such a market move in place, but at least the support was not broken and it shows a positive reaction

Frederick,

Sorry that this trade isn't going better than it is.  SVA closed on Friday at 2.11, smack on the bottom of the Bear Flag, but today, it's trading below the flag.

yesterday's candlestick wasn't so hot. today, the bottom of the bear flag comes in at 2.0885, which was violated about 45 minutes ago with a print of 2.07. the good news is that friday's 2.06 low held, and sva bounced. i wouldn't want to see that 2.06 low get taken out.

SVA just printed 2.06.  A print of 2.05 will be a "lower low" below the broken flag.   

Sure would be nice to see a scramble back to the flag at 2.12 this afternoon, for a Bullish Hammer.  Good luck to those of you long.

[Melf Elf]

SVA just printed 2.06. A print of 2.05 will be a "lower low" below the broken flag.

SVA printed the 2.05 while I was posting.   

That's a double break today of: (1) the Bear flag, and (2) the prior low.  That could bring in some selling going into the close if it doesn't rally back to the bottom of the broken Bear Flag.  Quite a few 1,000 share trades are going off here at 2.05.

[Melf Elf]

Sure would be nice to see a scramble back to the flag at 2.12 this afternoon, for a Bullish Hammer.  Good luck to those of you long.

SVA rallied off the 2.05 low.  One trade of 3,200 shares went through at 2.12, then it came off to the current BID 2.06...ASK 2.09.  That's looking like a re-test of broken support and a  refusal at 2.12, the bottom of the Bear Flag.

If I were long, I'd have to sell any close below 2.12.  Just how I'd play it.  Good luck, guys. 

[fous]

Nice analysis Melf (applauds)

i only filled a 1/4 position in SVA and sold today after the break of the ascending trendline. Doesn't look like its ready to rally yet.

-fous

[Ramsburg]

Thanks Melf / fousc,

Yep... this trade didnt start well, and SVA is not showing signs of strenght at all...

Update:
SVA is now trading below the short term ascending support; the technical outlook is weak, so we have to drop this position.

Trading Plan:
Sell during the morning

Regards,

[shawFund]

As I said that the market does not want to repeat last year's price patterns.

But I am keeping it on the watching list.

Tell you an insider news  I just heard in Beijing:

Because the success of SVA in US market (It gained 700% and 750% last two years and many people became rich), the Beijing science park is putting money in many small bio start-ups and some will trade in US market soon. I will keep you informed if I know anything meaningful.

My portfolio gained 10% so far this month. Among them,

AMD 30%,

EPIX (a pick from 3stocksonfire but sold for a loss) gained 54% (+84% from July buy price),

DRYS +20% (sold at  $13.25),

HLIT +11% (+41% from July buy price)

Potfolio gained 6.5% July.

Totasl number of closed trades since 2001: 37. 33 wins, 4 losses.
Portfolio total return: 1,597%. My target: total return 3,000% year from now.

Many semi and tech stocks will have big runs by the end-of-year.

[la-onda]

great news out:

Preliminary Result of Phase I Clinical Trial Shows That Sinovac's Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1) has High Safety and Immunogenicity Profile
Monday August 28, 8:30 am ET

BEIJING, Aug. 28 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX: SVA - News), announced that the preliminary result of the Phase I clinical trial on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1), which is supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, co-developed by Chinese Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd., was discovered recently. The result proves that the vaccine with different dosages can induce an immune response, of which the vaccine contained 10ug antigen has been proved to have the best immunogenicity with the sero positive rate of 78.3%, which exceeds the EU CHMP criteria for seasonal influenza vaccines (greater or equals to 70%). There is no serious adverse event reported on the 120 volunteers and it is proved that the vaccine is well tolerated and immunogenic.

Additionally, the Company will reconstruct the seasonal influenza vaccine plant to expand the production capability for pandemic influenza vaccine (H5N1) to 20 million doses per year and thereby it allows the company to have enough stockpiling capability of vaccines for the influenza pandemic.

The project is attracting a lot of Government attention. The National Development and Reform Commission has decided to provide financial support to the project.

The reconstruction project for Sinovac's seasonal influenza vaccine plant is expected to be completed in 2007. The reconstructed plant can also be used for the production of seasonal influenza vaccines. It is reported that the seasonal influenza vaccines manufactured in the plant will be launched into the market this autumn.

On November 22, 2005, the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) approved Sinovac to commence a phase I clinical trial on its proprietary Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1)... On December 21, 6 volunteers in the first group were vaccinated with the testing vaccines. The Clinical Trial was conducted with compliance with the requirements of receiving volunteers' consent and approval from ethic committee and the design of randomization and double blindness. In June of 2006, the code-breaking procedure of the Phase I clinical trial was completed under the witness of the Ministry of Public Health of People's Republic of China and the supervision of the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), the National Institute for the Control of Pharmaceutical and Biological Products (NICPBP), Centers For Drug's Examination and Evaluation, and the Data Safety and Monitor Board.

The result showed that all of the four different dosages of antigen used in the clinical trial can induce an immune response. Among the four dosages, the vaccine with 10ug antigen has been proved to have the best immunogenicity with the sero positive rate of 78.3%, which exceeds the EU CHMP criteria for seasonal influenza vaccines (greater or equals to 70%). There is no serious adverse event occurred on the 120 volunteers vaccinated with the vaccine. According to the results of Blood routing Test, Clinical Biochemistry Test, Urine Routing Test, and the observation of systemic and local adverse reactions, it is proved that the vaccine is well-tolerated.

The Pandemic Influenza Vaccine for Phase I clinical trial is an inactivated whole virion vaccine. The virus strain used for the development of the vaccine is NIBRG-14, which is recommended and provided by World Health Organization (WHO). The virus strain was a reassortant strain prepared using reverse genetics, which is non-pathogenic. The vaccine is adjuvanted with aluminum hydroxide, which can enhance the vaccine's immunogenicity to human bodies, reduce the antigen content for certain level of immunogenicity, and cover larger population.

It is announced by the management of Sinovac that they are preparing for the application for Phase II clinical trial on Pandemic Influenza Vaccine (H5N1) with Chinese Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC).

10% up in pre market....

[tokyopua]

Amazingly I got a limit order filled at market open at 2.10, 10 mintues later its at 2.26.  This is helping balance my losses today in NGAS...  Thanks for the heads up la-onda, applaud! 

[tokyopua]

Sweeeet, SVA just broke through resistance at 2.50, the previous high back on August 8th! 

Update:  Stock closed at 2.41, highest volume in 4 months, gap up in the AM, so very bullish.  Not so bullish is that it closed below 2.50 resistance after all with a slightly long upper shadow.

Anyway, I just had my first after hours trade, sold 300 of my shares to somebody at 2.61.  Maybe they know something I dont, but if not I am buying them back at the open at 2.41.