SVA

[randstory]

 Not only is Sinovac Biotech Co. Ltd. (AMEX:SVA) back, but it's back with what this time appear to be the first group of institutional buyers.

Please take a look at the chart below-

SVA 2006 PPS Daily, w/Accum/Distribution, Money Flow Index, and Chaikin Money Flow:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p69641762539

The MFI spike to 80, and doubling of daily volume, are the reasons to see that SVA is in the initial stages of institutional buying....

Here are two news items- from 8/28 and 8/31- which are reason to add and hold SVA:

8/28: News of Phase I Clinical Trials Results. This news was carried front-page in the leading Chinese online dailies:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060828/cnm015.html?.v=5

8/31: Breaking News of Thailand Collaboration:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/31Aug2006_news10.php

I would expect strength in SVA to continue.
All the best,
                         rand

[tokyopua]

Not only is Sinovac Biotech Co. Ltd. (AMEX:SVA) back, but it's back with what this time appear to be the first group of institutional buyers.

Please take a look at the chart below-

SVA 2006 PPS Daily, w/Accum/Distribution, Money Flow Index, and Chaikin Money Flow:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p69641762539

The MFI spike to 80, and doubling of daily volume, are the reasons to see that SVA is in the initial stages of institutional buying....

Here are two news items- from 8/28 and 8/31- which are reason to add and hold SVA:

8/28: News of Phase I Clinical Trials Results. This news was carried front-page in the leading Chinese online dailies:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060828/cnm015.html?.v=5

8/31: Breaking News of Thailand Collaboration:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/31Aug2006_news10.php

I would expect strength in SVA to continue.
All the best,
                         rand

I may add more shares at the open tomorrow having seen your second news article that Thailand is adopting SVA technology.  Also, I looked around and I dont see any other company that has completed human clinical trials of any sort, not even NVAX (though their technology is superior for making large quantities of vaccine fast). 

So, SVA is ahead of everyone in that respect as far as I know, and now other countries are going to use their technology, I wouldnt be surprised if Indonesia follows suit.

And on the technical side, today was the first close above the $2.50 resistance, and it was at HOD of 2.55.  Very bullish indeed, the force is with SVA 

[randstory]

 Yesterday- 8/30/06- I posted on on the "3StocksOnFire" site for previous picks about Sinovac (AMEX:SVA), which has recently had some encouraging news. Some of my comments were summarized on the KYO msg. board of Investorvillage:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4201&mn=99&pt=msg&mid=366997

Another attractive position currently is Dr. Reddy's Labs ADR (NYSE:RDY), which is a leading generic pharma in Hydrabad, India.

At $30.89, the equity is within a couple of dimes of my add price target of $30.70.
My initial price was $25.30-$26.50 last month.

The acquisition by Mylan Labs of Matrix Laboratories in India for $1.02 Billion USD suggests that the appropriate valuation for RDY is $4.02 Billion USD, or almost twice current market:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/060830/115695202507.html?.v=1

From a T.A. standpoint, RDY is also demonstrating support in the current range.

My target for RDY is $35-$38, and for SVA, it is at least $5.00 by year-end

[la-onda]

no news and up again
time for reentering ?

[randstory]

 Here is the SVA news at the beginning of this week- on Monday, August 28th-

Sinovac- a Chinese vaccine maker, and the only Chinese pharma with U.S. exchange listiing (AMEX:SVA), offically announces the successful completion of Phase I clinical trials for its
HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) vaccine, panflu(TM):
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060828/cnm015.html?.v=5

On Wednesday, 8/30, "The Bangkok Times" - Thailand's leading online news service, carried an article on the use of Sinovac's technology to produce a pandemic influenza vaccine in Thailand, although the company has not confirmed this.

On Friday, 9/01, "The Peoples Daily"-  one of the two leading Chinese online news services
(the more politically oriented of the two) carried this story on China's five year plan (2006-2011) for pharmaceuticals:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200609/01/eng20060901_298706.html

In addition to Panflu(TM), which will enter Phase II trials, Sinovac has three approved vaccines which it markets- Healive(TM), Bilive (TM) and Anflu(TM). See website.

Here is the six-month chart for SVA, with standard MA metrics, and Bollinger Bands:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15741175377

While the RSI appears high because of the recent buying interest, a good indicator of timeliness here is the MFI (Money Flow Indicator) below the chart.

Bullishness in SVA is far from finished..
Notably, during its run last year, SVA became a "3StocksOnFire" selection. See "search"-SVA- "3StocksOnFire".

Up to David Randolph (same name, but no relation to "randstory") whether it again makes the grade, but the chart suggests that, with a run from $2.04 to $2.60+ plus this week, it's likely been one of the 3 stocks on fire for those who started the week with it.

Best guess?- this will continue into next week as well.

All the best,
                            -r.

[tokyopua]

no news and up again
time for reentering ?

Bulls say: recently higher highs and lower lows, nice volume, bird flu "season" coming, possible company PR about Thailand (see posts below)

Bears say:  ascending trendline resistance at 2.74, today's HOD.

I almost sold at 2.74 since I have a nice profit, but am staying in for now, would love some company 

[Ramsburg]

SVA is looking great !

what a terrible timing we got for the 3SOF Potrfolio 

[shawFund]

About SVA:

   If your holding period is one year, I am pretty sure that you will be profitable.

   Short term, not so optimistic. Many people are looking for a repeat of last year's pattern.
   But those may disappoint. For me $1.85 is a good entry point. Big player will try to shake most small players out before pushing it up.

   I used multi-buy strategy for stocks which went down at least 50% from recent high or 90% from its high.

For example, SVA: if I bought at $2.45 and it went down, I will double my position at $1.3 (average down to $1.68) , then double it again at $0.65 (average down to $1.09) and holding for one year for a 100% or more return (if it goes up to $2.18) if you really believe in this company's future.

   No stop loss is placed. But profit must be protected if there is any.

That is my post few weeks ago.

If you are investing not gambling, you should not look for day to day price swing and sold for one year or for 100% gain before you sell the stock. You can also have multi-buy strategy if you believe in this company's products, management, etc.

Technical indicators are not very helpful in selecting stocks. Fundamental is much more important.

SVA future: still uncertain because it only passed trial I (4 patients), but it may go back to $7 again.

Reason: it traded to as high as $8 this year and now the chance of succeed is much more than few month ago.

For me, I bought some when this portfolio sold, that is what I mean shake-out ($2.10). When it tried to re-test its low the second time, many people feared and sold. That is the time to buy.

I like to buy on the double bottom and if it break-down, double my position. No one will shake me out. No one. Always buy-low and sell-high.

But you need to know the company. It must be a company worth you to put your hard earned money.

[tokyopua]

no news and up again
time for reentering ?

Bulls say: recently higher highs and lower lows, nice volume, bird flu "season" coming, possible company PR about Thailand (see posts below)

Bears say:  ascending trendline resistance at 2.74, today's HOD.

I almost sold at 2.74 since I have a nice profit, but am staying in for now, would love some company 

SVA at 2.82 now is currently performing a double break out of that ascending trend line (now it has gone up from 2.74 to 2.78) and a resistance line at 2.80.  Low volume still like the rest of the general market, but still encouraging if it can close above 2.78 or 2.80 today.

[randstory]

 Some readers may not be familiar with "The Lancet"- a British medical journal.
Here's a brief description:
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/31066/description#description

Tomorrow, "The Lancet" publishes a very favorable article on Panflu(TM), made by Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (AMEX:SVA). Here's a preview from "The Standard"- China's leading business
paper, and ahead of New York and London.
http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/templates/birdflu/window.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestandard.com.hk%2Fnews_detail.asp%3Fpp_cat%3D13%26art_id%3D26758%26sid%3D9764364%26con_type%3D1
The reviews of "the Lancet" article are currently appearing in Barcelona and Paris.

Here is what SVA's chart looks like, and some of the money flow metrices:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p54574343388

At $2.63 current, on a bit of profit-taking, I think SVA is attractively valued for some longer-term returns.
DD reccomended, of course.
                                                  -rand

[sebfr]

Great find randstory  but be careful...Be patient.It is not good moment..Waiting for a pullback on support at 2.5/2.4 or support at 2.2 (gap) and we will see what it will happen..

[randstory]

 Here is some recent news on SVA, from September 6th, 2006-

New Scientist:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10009-chinese-bird-flu-vaccine-shows-best-results-yet.html

An article will be published on SVA's Panflu(TM) technology in "The Lancet" today, September 7th.

Also: Phase I trials are registed in the U.S. today:
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00356798?order=1

I added to my trading position yesterday @$2.62. Here is a summary of my rationale:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Semiconductors/threadview?m=tm&bn=10475&tid=73467&mid=73467&tof=1&frt=2

Sinovac has currently three approved vaccines which it is marketing in China- two for Hepatitis, and one for endemic influenza.
The September-November period is the strongest period for revenues in marketing these vaccines.

Due diligence is encouraged, as always.
All the best,
                           -rand

[sebfr]

SVA seems not  to wainting for good news...

[randstory]

 Below are three charts for Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (AMEX:SVA)- a Beijing based vaccine manufacturer which has recently received international attention for successfully completing Phase I trials for Panflu(TM)- its HPAI H5N1 vaccine.

Chart #1: 4 month chart for SVA- from May 19th, 2006 to present.
In the current PPS range  ($2.75)- SVA consolidating:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p78275910281

The company may announce commencement of Phase II trials between now, and the first week of October.
Some notice of this has already appeared in Mandarin, in a number of articles. This trial would involve approx. 400 subjects, and be conducted at the Sino-Japanese Friendship Hospital in Beijing, in cooperation with China's Ministry Of Health, which is underwriting the cost of trials.
Additionally, the last four months of the year are the strongest period for revenues for Sinovac's three approved and currently marketed vaccines.

Chart #2: 4 month chart for SVA- from May 19th, 2005 (the year before) to September 19th, 2005. Please feel free to draw comparisons between this chart, and  chart #1:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2005-05-19&en=2005-09-19&id=p84368391543


At this time last year, Sinovac was preparing to present its case for entering Phase I trials for Panflu(TM). Now, of course, it is preparing to commence Phase II trials.
SVA's vaccine sales revenues were up 73%, in a comparison of the first half- 2005 and the first half, 2006.

Chart #3: 4 month chart for SVA from September 19th, 2005 (exactly a year ago) and January 19th, 2006.
This chart illustrates the SVA's PPS growth subsequent to its commencement of Phase I trials. Because it shows the effect of news and developments on PPS, you want to read this chart LEFT to RIGHT, looking at the rise in share price:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2005-09-19&en=2006-01-19&id=p93250601017

Will SVA repeat its prior trend in the coming months?

Investing is a matter of probabilites, not certainties. In this case, I believe the odds favor the long side. And while SVA may not, at this point be called a "stock on fire" (it was one of the "3stocksonfire" last year), it  is setting up nicely.

Long here- as previously mentioned- as a trading buy. In at $2.02, $2.04 and $2.61.
I think for a trader looking for a minimum of 20%-25% return, $2.75 is a very buyable initial price, with a stop just under $2.60, where it last found support and reversed nicely.
All the best,

                                                              -rand





 

[randstory]

 Sinovac Biotech Ltd. broke out of its Bollinger Bands yesterday, on news of the commencement of sales of its endemic influenza vaccine- Anflu(TM).

Last year, the rise in PPS for this equity was based on its initial clinical trials for Panflu(TM)- a vaccine for the H5N1 virus, or avian influenza.

This year- the rise in SVA price will be based in part on Panflu(TM) entering Phase II trials, but the price support will be through revenues from its three approved and marketed vaccines.

Sinovac's marketing plan is to increase awareness of, and confidence in, its vaccines in the Chinese market, which will be the world's largest pharmaceutical market by 2020.

For this reason, the company has focused on promotion of its vaccines within China, rather than promotion of its equity price in the U.S. equity marketplace.

here's the chart for SVA, from April 1, 2006 forward. Please note the black "S" line- Bollinger Band width- as well as MFI (Money Flow Index) and MACD Histogram:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&st=2006-04-01&id=p75882924989

My buy prices for trading shares of SVA were $2.02 and $2.04 in the last week of August, and $2.61-$2.62 within the past two weeks. My plan is a reduction of 20%-$25% of trading shares @$3.15.

As previously mentioned in an earlier post in "Stock Picking" after an article on Sinovac's Panflu(TM) vaccine in the well-repected British medical publication- "The Lancet"- my longer-term target PPS for SVA is $4.00 and above, based on revenues for SVA in fiscal 2006.

All the best,
                       -rand