SVA

[tokyopua]

Update:
SVA has broken the ascending channel we were following, this is not a good sign, but in the other hand, the stock has been holding above $3.00, not sowing specific signs of correction.
We are a bit apprehensive on this trade, but we'll maintain the current trading plan, a stop at $2.95 will assure a tight leash on this position.

Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $2.95

Best regards,

Looks like the 3SOF stop got taken out, it really tanked SVA on the 5 minute chart, very evident.

I sat in front of my screen yesterday wondering if the gap would get filled and if I should sell at 3.05.  Didnt do it, wish I had now.  As it happens, I didnt sell at the 3SOF stop either, so I guess I since the gap just got filled, I will stick it out and wait for the recovery. 

[thai626]

Phewww!!   

I got worried there for a while after seeing how it kept dropping and dropping of late.  Good thing it made a return to it's trading zone in only two days!    

Volume looks strong and I'm hoping the trend will continue.  Good luck all!

Thai

[thai626]

Gap closed!  I think SVA is ready for another leg up.   

I would love to see volume come back to the stock.   

Show me the money!!

[la-onda]

Sinovac Reports Fourth Quarter 2006 Unaudited Sales and Provides Corporate Update for 2007
Tuesday January 16, 8:30 am ET
4Q2006 Unaudited Sales Increases 56.75% to US$6.27 Million Compared to Audited Sales for the Same Period of 2005

BEIJING, Jan. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Amex: SVA - News), a leading provider of biopharmaceutical products in China, today announced unaudited sales for the fourth quarter 2006 ended December 31, 2006 and provided a corporate review for 2006 and a business outlook for 2007.


Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2006 Sales

Unaudited sales for the fourth quarter 2006 rose 56.75% to US$6.27 million, compared to audited sales of US$4 million for the same period in 2005. Fourth quarter 2006 sales increased 39% over third quarter 2006. Unaudited sales for the full year 2006 increased 78.67% to US$15.41 million, compared to audited sales of US$8.6 million for the full year 2005.

Sales and Marketing

The sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2006 was primarily attributable to increased sales of Healive(TM), Sinovac's inactivated hepatitis A vaccine. Sinovac believes that the domestic demand for vaccines that protect against infectious diseases will continue to increase and the market will shift towards higher quality products. The exclusion of the liquid form of attenuated hepatitis A vaccines from the Chinese market is an example of the market change. The Company anticipates that the demand for its approved vaccines will increase and correspondingly the sales growth will continue. At the same time, through years of experience in vaccine production, Sinovac continues to increase capacity, which translates into decreasing production costs.

In 2006, Sinovac's strategy for Anflu(TM), its seasonal flu vaccine, was to obtain approval for sale from the China State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) and to develop the market. In late September, Anflu was released for sale in China. The Company has subsequently delivered a limited amount of Anflu through the batch release process within the Chinese government and to the market. The product quality and market acceptance has been verified and the Company anticipates that the sales of Anflu will be increase in 2007.

Vaccine Pipeline

During 2006 and into 2007, Sinovac continues to advance its vaccine development pipeline.

The results of the Phase I clinical trial for Panflu(TM), Sinovac's pandemic influenza vaccine, were published on September 7, 2006 in The Lancet. The results showed a high immunogenicity profile, with sero-positive rate of 78.3%, thus exceeding the criteria for assessment of vaccines established by the Committee for Proprietary Medicinal Products of the European Union.

In November 2006, Sinovac filed with the SFDA the application to commence a Phase II trial for Panflu. The application is currently under review by the SFDA and two conferences have been held with experts of SFDA.

Sinovac has commenced the follow-on trial to give a third dose to those that were vaccinated with Panflu in the Phase I trial. Sinovac is currently screening volunteers and anticipates that the results from this follow-on will be available in the second half of 2007.

Sinovac entered into a distribution agreement with LG Life Sciences (LGLS) in February 2006 pursuant to which Sinovac will serve as the exclusive distributor for selling LGLS's hepatitis B, Euvax-B(TM), in China. The registration documents for Euvax-B(TM) have been collected by Sinovac and are on track to be submitted to SFDA within the next few weeks. It is anticipated that the clinical research approval certificate will be issued by SFDA within 12 months after the submission in the event that no other supplementary documents are needed.

Production

Sinovac has recently received a RMB 20 million, or US$2.6 million, grant from China's government that will be utilized to fund expansion of production. The facility expansion plan will focus on expanding the existing flu vaccine plant and increasing the production capacity for the human-use avian influenza vaccine to 20 million doses. The plan has already been initiated with completion expected within one year.

Corporate Governance

In June 2006, Sinovac commenced a compliance project with respect to Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Under the project, Sinovac has begun the implementation of a comprehensive internal control system aimed at risk control and prevention. It promotes the concept of documentation, traceability and details, which has gradually improved the management of financial reporting, R&D, production, quality control and other aspects of the business. Over the past six months, the principle parts of the compliance project have been completed.

Domestic Collaboration

Sinovac has established collaboration across industry, universities and institutions that that includes China Agriculture University, Beijing Normal University and Institute of Laboratory Animal Science, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. The purpose of the collaboration is to share the technology and achievements of R&D projects with institutions, to provide training to universities, to realize value from the technology in the industry, and to give students the opportunity to work in the industry while they are in school. Under this collaborative approach, external and internal resources are totally integrated to maximize value creation.

Research Project Initiation

The "863" project "Universal Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Research," which is supported by Ministry of Science and Technology, has established an innovative model tailored to Sinovac and combined with institutions and universities. Over the next five years, the program will focus on studying vaccine development across all potential varieties of influenza virus.

The application was filed with the Ministry of Science and Technology in November 2006 and approval was received in December. And the first installment of government fund has been received. Subsequently, Sinovac has established a project team and the program has been initiated.

Business Plan for 2007

Dr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO, stated, "Sinovac has made significant progress in 2006 benefiting from the increasing sales of its vaccines approved in China and the advancement of the vaccine pipeline. In 2007, we expect to generate increasing sales from approved vaccines and to move forward with our current research projects. We look forward to expanding our vaccine manufacturing capacity, utilizing the funding received from the Chinese Government. We are also continuing to explore opportunities to expand our product portfolio and further improve our production efficiency."

[ScottishTrader]

SVA chart:  Fridays doji tested 2.50 support.  Looks like it could continue to the upside. Pivot at 2.68.

Key resistance and descending channel @ $3.

[ScottishTrader]

SVA broke out of a falling wedge yesterday.  Technical target is 4.10.  Not sure if it will get that high, but bodes well for returning to the $3 range.

[la-onda]

fyi:
Sinovac Biotech Files w/FDA China for Hepatitis B Vaccine; Receives 562K Payment Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) has filed registration documents with the
China State Food and Drug Administration for LG Life Sciences (LGLS) hepatitis B vaccine, Euvax-B(TM). Sinovac is the exclusive distributor for Euvax-B pursuant to a distribution agreement with LGLS signed in February 2006. The Company also announced that it received full repayment in the amount of US$ 562,515.31 from Lily Wang, a former director and CFO until March 22, 2006, for the outstanding balance of a loan owed to the Company arising from her earlier acquisition of Tangshan Yian's equity interest in Sinovac Beijing. The loan in aggregate amount of RMB 10.8 million owed to the Company by Heping Wang
for his assuming Tangshan Yian's loan obligations remains outstanding.
SVA is working with Mr. Wang in resolving this remaining issue.

[la-onda]

nice pop up on no news (yet...)
on my watchlist

[Melf Elf]

nice pop up on no news (yet...)
on my watchlist

Oliver,

I couldn't find any news either, but I think that the rally was inspired by the technical breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) above 2.83, which also was the 200DMA.  The buying really kicked in when the 2.85 and 2.88 highs of the pattern got taken out to the upside.  3.46 is IN PLAY.

In addition to the technical breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle, MACD went above zero on Thursday, and the 34/55 RSIs gave a buy signal at 2.71, also on Thursday.  I'll post you the 34/55RSI chart next, in case you're interested.

I've been watching NVAX and GNBT, both of which have been miserable.  SVA is too illiquid for me.  Only 96,600 shares traded on Thursday.  Yesterday was much better.  631,000 shares were traded, but I hate to get stuck in illiquid stocks if I need to sell.

This pattern breakout in SVA isn't very strong, and the 3.10 close isn't far from the 3.46 target IN PLAY.  A nice entry might be in the mid-2.80s, on a re-test of the highs/top of the Symmetrical Triangle, and the 200DMA. 

Just a suggestion.

These stocks might just run some on Monday, though, with no pullback in SVA.  NVAX has been awful since it broke key support at 4.82, and then 4.72 support,  but it possibly double-bottomed at 3.68 - 3.67 on Friday, on a Bullish Hammer.

I'll post you a chart of NVAX in that folder, in case you're interested in that one, too. 

[Melf Elf]

The 34/55 RSIs finally came into Bullish Synchronicity, held, and rallied. 

The high of last Tuesday's candle, when these RSIs came into synchronicity, was 2.70, making that number the "buy pivot."  That means that a print above that "pivot," so 2.71, is a "buy signal" from this particular indicator.

We then have to decide if we want to take the signal, or not.  We don't allow indicators to TELL US to buy or sell.  We must make those decisions, based on other technicals and most importantly, in my opinion, based on the price action in the chart. 

In the chart, based on the fact that a Symmetical Triangle was in place, and especially given the fact that the bottom of the pattern had been validated by a third hit, at Green #5 (refer to price chart in last post), a buy of 2.71 certainly looked reasonable. 

Additionally, notice in the price chart (last) that the hit to the trendline at Green #5 also was a bounce off the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in blue).

MACD also was ready to go up through the zero line, which was additional technical evidence that favored Friday's Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

By the way, breakouts of sharply falling Bullish Falling Wedges like the one in SVA on January 16, generally, aren't particularly bullish because there still is so much price resistance overhead.

They can generate a lot of excitement, because SVA was up 20% that day... 

... but, look what happened after that. 

The high on the day was 2.88, up 20%, but the rally ended right there, and SVA fell all the way back to 2.31, down almost 20% from that high.



TIP: Be careful, thinking that those breakouts above sharply declining trendlines are bullish.   As often as not, they're aren't.  At least not right away, as in this case with SVA.

[Melf Elf]

I couldn't find any news either, but I think that the rally was inspired by the technical breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) above 2.83, which also was the 200DMA.  The buying really kicked in when the 2.85 and 2.88 highs of the pattern got taken out to the upside.  3.46 is IN PLAY.

3.46 MADE.

[randstory]

 Hi, David Randolph!

Volume is back in SVA!
Institutions back also, including a new one-Royce and Associates.

Here's the new Point and Figure Chart. Double Top Breakout today!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=SVA,P&listNum=

Here's the six month SVA chart, with China Halter Index as backchart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p33558081449

All the best,
                              -rand

[setravis]

"SVA" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                                       
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                                   
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.                 
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$                

[ScottishTrader]

SVA just released their 2006 year end  results:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070412/cnth005.html?.v=11

Nice revenue and GP growth: up 78% on 2005.  They also narrowed their net loss to .02/sh from .14 last year.  With estimates of 30-50% sales growth for 07, if they maintain their gross margins of 72%, then they should be profitable next year.  Looks pretty good for a biotech.

Also released thier q107 unaudited sales results: Q1 up 134% yoy, which again is pretty good:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070412/cnth006.html?.v=4

Technically, SVA looks like it is wanting to get on a roll here... breakout of this large symmetric triangle, getting above the feb high of 3.55.  Volume was very strong yesterday.  Puts a target of 5.35 IN PLAY.  Expect strong volume again today on the back of this earnings release. 

I'm looking to take a position here.

[randstory]

 SVA looks like a buy, or add here technically:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p31373976034
                                                    -r.