FORD

[setravis]

Melf, I don't know if the P/E ratio is accurate.

Fataunt, Looks it may have put in a double bottom.

Volume: 1,370,359
Avg Vol (3m): 354,860

52wk Range: 4.03 - 29.85

Technicals
Close above the 50-day MA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
17.70%above 13-day MA
7.30%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 42 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $39.15 
P/E Ratio: 8.64 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

[Melf Elf]

Melf, I don't know if the P/E ratio is accurate.

setravis,

Okay, thanks.  I've been wondering how this chart could look so horrible if the P/E is 8 or 9, but I can't find anything on estimates.

For the recent 9 months vs. same 9 months last year, earnings were down dramatically

"For the nine months ended June 30, 2006, net sales were $22.4 million, compared to $33.3 million in the nine-month period ended June 30, 2005. Net income was $1.1 million versus $6.0 million, and earnings per diluted share were $0.14, compared to $0.82. The nine-month results were impacted by the factors stated above.

Mr. Ball concluded, "The Company's financial position remains very solid, with cash of $17.3 million, no long-term debt , and working capital of $24.3 million at June 30, 2006."

At least the "no long-term debt" part sounds good.

Chart-wise, the 4.32 target MADE, and although the 3.90 target from the big H&S Top didn't quite make, we got 4.03 and 4.05 for a possible double bottom, which is 99% of the target from the breakdown above $17.

When two targets get MADE in a relatively close price area (4.32 and 3.90, in the case of FORD), I start thinking about a move in the other direction, especially when a pattern begins to emerge, like this double bottom possibility at 4.03 and 4.05.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart also is shaping up nicely for a possible rally (next post).

That's why I was interested in the earnings, wondering why this looks so grossly undervalued on the P/E below 10.   

[Melf Elf]

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart ("At A Glance...The Table Of Balance"). 

[Melf Elf]

FORD printed 5.00 this morning, right in that 4.995 - 5.03 support zone on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart (see last post).

[Melf Elf]

FORD printed 5.00 this morning, right in that 4.995 - 5.03 support zone on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart (see last post).

5.00 was the low this morning.  FORD now is has gone green, and also has put in a new high on the day.  I like that.

FORD currentily is BID 5.22...ASK 5.25. 

If FORD can close it out near here, we'll have a Bullish Doji Star Hammer in place, with the bottom of the tail today at Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen support, 4.995 - 5.93 (See Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart posted this morning).

[setravis]

Melf, Thanks for the work on the update.
Keep up the good work.....Applaud   

[Melf Elf]

Melf, Thanks for the work on the update.

setravis,

Sorry that I wasn't able to find any estimates on earnings.  Those gaps down this year on earnings make me a tad nervous, but I went ahead and bought it yesterday morning on the test of 4.995 - 5.03 support, which held nicely right at 5.00.  I'm happy with yesterday's Drangonfly Doji candlestick.  We'll see if she's got any upside here.

Good luck if you have it.   

[Melf Elf]

I went ahead and bought it yesterday morning on the test of 4.995 - 5.03 support, which held nicely right at 5.00. 

It's been bumpy, but FORD is getting a pop today, currently up 18%.

[Melf Elf]

Sold ½ FORD at 5.58.  Gain: 10.9%

FORD rallied to 6.05 yesterday, completed a Symmetrical Triangle to the downside, and dropped almost 12%, to 5.34, from the 6.05 high on the day.

Possible H&S Top forming on the intraday.  Head would be yesterday's Symmetrical Triangle.  Neckline: 5.29 and 5.34.

Raising stop on remaining ½ to 5.33.

[Melf Elf]

Sold ½ FORD at 5.58.  Gain: 10.9%

Sold remaining ½ FORD at 5.70.  Gain: 13.3%.   Gain on the trade: 12.1%

This is looking suspiciously like the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top.  I decided to sell into strength here, especially with the QQQQ pushing up against resistance (See World Indices folder, QQQQ folder, if interested).

[Melf Elf]

Sold ½ FORD at 5.58.  Gain: 10.9%

Sold remaining ½ FORD at 5.70.  Gain: 13.3%.   Gain on the trade: 12.1%

This is looking suspiciously like the Right Shoulder of a H&S Top.  

FORD completed the Right Shoulder, looks to have gone into a Bear Flag, broke the neckline and Bear Flag, then broke the 5.29 low of the pattern.

[setravis]

Company disappointed investors this year.
Recovered from lows, but, has been unable to get out of consolidation pattern.
Things may be looking better,
But still  don't like the way it is hovering around the MA's with failed penant after failed penant, may revisit lows again before something positive breaks for this one.
Looks to be wanting to breakout from this,
Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern......

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Very Bullish
Oct-19-2006 Bullish Engulfing 

Support @ $5.69...5.60...5.39
Resistance @ $6.10...6.70

52wk Range: 4.03 - 26.40
Volume: 2,240,588
Avg Vol (3m): 371,464

Technicals
MACD is Bullish
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
9.01%above 13-day MA
11.37%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 19 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $40.25 
P/E Ratio: 8.89 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

[Holygrale]

This one is being followed by James Boric from Agora financial, says its 1 of 6 must own because of growth potential..............

These guys have good following might be the cause for the recent runup.

[Melf Elf]

This one is being followed by James Boric from Agora financial, says its 1 of 6 must own because of growth potential..............

These guys have good following might be the cause for the recent runup.

Holygrale,

Thanks for posting that.  Applause.

Back in late August early September (if you care to scroll up), setravis and I were trying to figure out if the fundamentals were as good as they appeared to be.  setravis' chart had a P/E of 7, I think, and I saw 8 or 9 somewhere else.

Melf, I don't know if the P/E ratio is accurate.

setravis,

Okay, thanks. I've been wondering how this chart could look so horrible if the P/E is 8 or 9, but I can't find anything on estimates.

For the recent 9 months vs. same 9 months last year, earnings were down dramatically

"For the nine months ended June 30, 2006, net sales were $22.4 million, compared to $33.3 million in the nine-month period ended June 30, 2005. Net income was $1.1 million versus $6.0 million, and earnings per diluted share were $0.14, compared to $0.82. The nine-month results were impacted by the factors stated above.

Mr. Ball concluded, "The Company's financial position remains very solid, with cash of $17.3 million, no long-term debt , and working capital of $24.3 million at June 30, 2006."

At least the "no long-term debt" part sounds good.

Chart-wise, this is looking eerily similar to what it looked like going into April earnings, when we had the possibilitity of a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.  That was a disaster.  FORD gapped down below it, MADE the 4.32 pattern target, and darned near MADE the 3.90 target IN PLAY from the November, 2005 break of the massive H&S Top.

Going into October earnings, we've got a nice, bullish-looking 6-month W-Bottom in place.  I'll show you a close-up of that next.

[Melf Elf]

For anyone not familiar with a W-Bottom, it looks looks like the letter "W."

The Left Leg is the Green Channel that begins at the April earnings gap down, and ends at the 4.03 low.

The Middle of the "W" is the 7.38 high, right before the July earnings disappointment.  Sales were down 44%.  That's the "pivot" of the pattern that need to get taken out to the upside, to complete the pattern.

The Right Leg of the "W" is the rally off the 4.05 low.

The Inverse H&S (red circles) formed over 4-months.  Everyone still holding up there is playing for The Bears.  Many of them want out, and will sell any rally to that level.

This W-Bottom has been forming over 6-months.  These candles are playing for The Bulls.  So in terms of the width of this base, it's certainly good enough to go up and start attacking 4-months worth of Bears, starting at 8.05 resistance.

The obvious question is, are The Bulls going to get any help from earnings, or is this going to be yet another earnings disaster? 

Technically, if FORD should gap up and get through the 7.38 "pivot" for the W-Bottom, we'd not only have the W-Bottom breakout, we'd also have a 6-month Bullish Island Reversal.  Gap Down from April earnings...Gap Up on October earnings/analyst upgrades?

Target is on the chart.

If you can find out any more about why Boric thinks this is 1 of 6 "must own" stocks, Holygrale, I sure would be interested and would appreciate it. 

After these horrilbe gaps down on earnings, given how nice this base looks, it's conceivable that FORD could have that Bullish Island Reversal on a positive earnings surprise.

EDIT: Does anyone know when FORD reports? TIA.