CWTR

[Adam]

this has a great long term chart (2 1/2 year trend) and looks ready to breakout.

[basonista]

Hmmm...  I thought there was another CWTR thread but this is the only one that showed up on the search.

Sometimes you just have to buy good companies, especially when the market puts them on sale.   I bought a couple of days ago but I won't post my entry price since it is late.

[basonista]

A pullback from the 200ma was expected but not I wasn't expecting such a long legged spinning top/doji.  My price target is around the $30 level since that is where CWTR has met resistance the past two pushes up.  I'm hoping that momentum will be greater this time and push it past those levels.

[basonista]

After more resistance at the 200ma, CWTR found support right on the 20ma today which also happens to be right at the mid-term 50% fib level.

[basonista]

Not clear which way CWTR will go from here so this could either be a good bottom fishing play or a potential short.  First the

Bottom Fishing Argument

Yesterday's drop was caused by a downward revision of 4Q earnings and the stock was down almost 24% at one point (pre-market low was 18.00).  If this last low holds, CWTR is trading in a very well defined channel from the 18.69 to 18.88 area up to the recent double top at 31.25/31.26.



On this chart CWTR is way oversold and indicators are at levels that have produced nice returns in the past.  Risk/reward is still OK with a stop around 18.50 and a target of the top of the channel at 31 with a roughly 4.75:1 ratio.  Reward is about 50% gain while risk is around 10% - high risk percentage so plan the trade accordingly.  The last two low to high runs have taken exactly 13 weeks.

Shorter term, the stock made a nice recovery yesterday with an approximately 11-12% move off it's low to close near the high of the day.



This was a pretty severe drop so I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of the low of the day next week.  There will be a conference call on February 8th to update analysts and shareholders with earnings reported on March 7th.  This sentence from the press release will conclude the bottom fishing argument:  "The company still expects to turn in record full-year earnings and sales."

Short argument:

Although there was a nice recovery from yesterday's low, a 12% drop on high volume is damaging to a stock.  Daytraders were all over this one with a price ceiling showing up at the 61.8 fib retracement level drawn from Thursday's high to Friday's low.



Analysts jumped in with downgrades and warnings about getting in before more information is available.  Since CWTR is pretty oversold already the safest short position would be taken on a break and retest of the historic support level around 18.75.  Another potential short area would be at the gap fill/resistance level around 23.20-23.60. This area also contains the 61.8 fib level of the channel discussed above.  Another option for those nimble traders among us, is to play around with the fib levels shown on the 30 minute chart.

Good luck!

[chakkar]

Price hasn't been able to break the 40-WMA since about Jul-2007. Stock has been decimated 90% from the top ($31.26 around May-2006) to Jan- and Feb-2008 bottoms of $3.40 and $3.84 respectively. Sales have gone from $0.78B for the year ended 28-Jan-2006 to $1.15B for the year ended 02-Feb-2008; net income for same period has decreased from $0.07B to $(0.01B), driven primarily by reduced gross margins, from what I can deduce.

With all the bad news baked into the stock price, question is whether Thu-26-Jun's analyst upgrade foretells a turnaround at this women's specialty retailer. More broadly, will specialty retail succeed in keeping its head above water through the substantial weakness in consumers' discretionary spending?

Short term, I see that $5.35 is a key support; if broken, next stop is at $4.51 .

Will appreciate any thoughts on trading this above $5.35 .

[setravis]

Coldwater Creek Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2009 Results...

SANDPOINT, Idaho, March 3, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Coldwater Creek Inc. (CWTR, Trade ) today reported financial results for the three-month and twelve-month periods ended January 30, 2010.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Operating Results

Net sales were $318.4 million, compared with $283.2 million in the fiscal 2008 fourth quarter. Sales from the retail segment, which includes the Company's premium retail stores, outlet stores, and day spa locations, were $221.0 million versus $199.7 million in the fiscal 2008 fourth quarter. Comparable premium store sales increased 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter versus the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Direct sales (phone and internet) were $97.3 million, compared with $83.5 million in the same period last year.

Gross profit for the fiscal 2009 fourth quarter was $90.3 million, or 28.4 percent of net sales, compared with $76.0 million, or 26.8 percent of net sales, for the fiscal 2008 fourth quarter. The increase in gross profit was primarily due to an increase in merchandise margin and leverage of occupancy expenses resulting from higher sales.

Selling, general and administrative expenses for the fiscal 2009 fourth quarter were $105.2 million, or 33.0 percent of net sales, compared with $110.3 million, or 38.9 percent of net sales, for the fiscal 2008 fourth quarter. The decrease in selling, general and administrative expenses of approximately $5.1 million was driven by lower employee costs, partially offset by higher marketing expense as compared with the fourth quarter last year.

Operating loss for the fourth quarter was $15.5 million, reflecting an improvement of $18.8 million from an operating loss of $34.3 million for the fiscal 2008 fourth quarter.

Net loss for the fourth quarter was $9.7 million, or $0.11 per share, compared with net loss of $18.6 million, or $0.20 per share, for the fiscal 2008 fourth quarter. Net loss for fourth quarter 2009 included a $0.6 million non-cash charge related to certain premium retail store asset impairments, or approximately $0.01 per share.

Dennis Pence, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Coldwater Creek, commented, "Our fourth quarter results were significantly ahead of the prior year as we began to see an improvement in our comparable store sales and direct revenue, as well as a modest expansion in merchandise margin. In addition, we continued to focus on expense discipline and ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet. While we are disappointed to report a loss in fiscal 2009, we are confident that we are taking the right steps to position the company for profitability and growth."

"For fiscal 2010, we expect to improve merchandise margin as we re-balance our assortments, align our pricing with the high quality and fashion inherent in our product lines, and continue to modify our quarterly sale events," Mr. Pence continued. "In addition, we have a renewed discipline towards inventory management that is focused on ensuring that our inventory investments are aligned with the current economic conditions. At the same time, we will continue to tightly manage expense and capital investments. We expect these efforts to result in a consistent improvement in our operating results in fiscal year 2010."

Fiscal Year 2009 Operating Results

Net sales were $1,038.6 million, compared with $1,024.2 million in the twelve months ended January 31, 2009. Sales from the retail segment, which includes the Company's premium retail stores, outlet stores, and day spa locations, were $782.4 million versus $751.4 million last year. Direct sales (phone and internet) were $256.2 million, compared with $272.9 million in the same period last year.

Gross profit for fiscal 2009 was $334.3 million, or 32.2 percent of net sales, compared with $350.6 million, or 34.2 percent of net sales, in fiscal 2008. The decline in gross profit was primarily due to lower merchandise margins resulting from increased promotional activity and lower initial markups.

Selling, general and administrative expenses for fiscal 2009 were $378.9 million, or 36.5 percent of net sales, compared with $395.3 million, or 38.6 percent of net sales, for fiscal 2008. The decrease in selling, general and administrative expenses of approximately $16.5 million was primarily related to lower employee costs and reduced marketing expenses as well as other related costs, partially offset by $6.0 million in expenses related to the separation from the Company's former CEO.

Net loss for fiscal 2009 was $56.1 million, or $0.61 per share, compared with a net loss of $26.0 million, or $0.29 per share, in fiscal 2008. Results in 2008 include a non-cash charge of $0.9 million after-tax, or $0.01 per share, related to the impairment of certain Coldwater Creek day spa locations.

Net loss for fiscal 2009 included the following: (i) a $25.3 million non-cash income tax charge, or $0.28 per share, related to a valuation allowance against net deferred tax assets; (ii) a $3.8 million after-tax charge, or $0.04 per share, related to the separation from the Company's former CEO; and (iii) a $0.6 million non-cash charge, or approximately $0.01 per share, related to premium retail store asset impairments.

Income Tax Valuation Allowance

U.S. GAAP requires that we assess whether a valuation allowance should be established against our deferred tax assets based on the consideration of all available evidence using a "more likely than not" standard. In making such judgments, significant weight is given to evidence that can be objectively verified. A company's current or previous losses are given more weight than its projected future performance. Consequently, based on available evidence, in particular our three-year historical cumulative losses, we recorded a valuation allowance against our net deferred tax asset in the third quarter of fiscal 2009. The recording of a valuation allowance has no impact on cash and does not preclude the company from utilizing the full amount of the deferred tax asset in future profitable periods.

Balance Sheet Highlights:

Cash totaled $84.7 million, compared with $81.2 million at the end of fiscal 2008.

Premium retail store inventory per square foot, including retail inventory in the distribution center, increased approximately 20.0 percent compared to January 31, 2009.

Total inventory increased to $161.5 million, compared to $135.4 million at the end of fiscal 2008.

Working capital was $98.7 million, compared to $93.0 million as of January 31, 2009.

Store Openings

The Company opened no new premium retail stores during the three-month period ended January 30, 2010, ending the year with 356 premium retail stores. The Company plans to open approximately 20 new retail stores in fiscal 2010.

Outlook

The Company expects to report a loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2010, however, it expects an improvement over the $0.08 loss per share in the first quarter of fiscal 2009. This assumes a mid-single digit year-over-year increase in total net sales. For fiscal 2010, the company expects to report earnings per share of between $0.08 and $0.12, with the majority of the earnings growth coming in the second half of the year. This compares to actual fiscal 2009 loss per share of $0.61, which includes costs of $0.33 per share related to the income tax valuation allowance, separation agreement charges, and non-cash asset impairment charges.

Conference Call Information

Coldwater Creek will host a conference call on Wednesday, March 3, 2010, at 4:30 p.m. (Eastern) to discuss fiscal 2009 fourth quarter and full year results. To listen to the live Web cast, log on to http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=92631&ev

entID=2750365. Also, a link to the live Web cast of the call is provided in the Investor Relations section of the Company's Web site at http://www.coldwatercreek.com/ . The call will be archived from approximately one hour after the conference call until Wednesday, March 17, 2010. The replay can be accessed by dialing (877) 660-6853 and giving account number 3055 and the passcode 344841. A replay and transcript of the call will also be available in the investor relations section of the Company's Web site.

Founded in 1984, and headquartered in Sandpoint, Idaho, Coldwater Creek is a leading specialty retailer of women's apparel, gifts, jewelry, and accessories. The company sells its merchandise through premium retail stores across the country, online at coldwatercreek.com and through its catalogs.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION:

This news release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the securities laws, including statements relating to our expected financial results for the first fiscal quarter and fiscal year of 2010. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to a number of uncertainties, risks and assumptions that may not fully materialize or may prove incorrect. As a result, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from estimates or projections contained in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:

the inherent difficulty predicting the effectiveness of promotional discounting, as well as the difficulty in forecasting consumer buying and retail traffic patterns and trends, which continue to be erratic and are affected by factors beyond our control, such as severe weather, the current macroeconomic conditions, high unemployment, continuing heavy promotional activity in the specialty retail marketplace, and competitive conditions and the possibility that because of lower than expected customer response, or because of competitive pricing pressures, we may be required to sell merchandise at lower than expected margins, or at a loss;

the possibility that our sales and earnings projections will not be realized, due to changing business and economic conditions;

our potential inability to recover the substantial fixed costs of our retail store base due to sluggish sales;

our potential inability to continue to fund our operations solely with operating cash as a result of either lower sales or higher than anticipated costs, or both;

delays we may encounter in sourcing merchandise from our foreign and domestic vendors, including the potential inability of our vendors to finance production of the goods we order; risks related to our foreign sourcing strategy; and the possibility that foreign sourcing may not lead to any reduction of our sourcing costs or improvement in our margins;

the effect of volatile energy costs on various aspects of our business, including shipping, transportation, merchandise acquisition and consumer spending;

increasing competition from discount retailers and companies that have introduced concepts or products similar to ours;

difficulties encountered in anticipating and managing customer returns and the possibility that customer returns will be greater than expected;

the inherent difficulties in catalog management, for which we incur substantial costs prior to mailing that we may not be able to recover, and the possibility of unanticipated increases in mailing and printing costs;

unexpected costs or problems associated with our efforts to manage our expanding and increasingly complex business, including our current efforts to improve key management information systems and controls;

the risk that the benefits expected from our strategic initiatives will not be achieved or may take longer to achieve than we expect;

and such other factors as are discussed in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). We believe that these forward-looking statements are reasonable; however, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and speak only as of the date of this release. We do not assume any obligation to publicly release any revisions to forward-looking statements to reflect events or changes in our expectations occurring after the date of this release.


    Contact:
    Lyn Walther, Divisional Vice President, Investor
     Relations
    Phone: 208-265-7005
    Web site: 
                              www.coldwatercreek.com
                           

SOURCE Coldwater Creek Inc.

[setravis]

Coldwater Creek continues climb after upgrade
Coldwater Creek shares continue climb for 2nd day as analyst upgrades following outlook

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Coldwater Creek Inc. climbed for a second straight day Friday as an analyst boosted his rating on the women's clothing retailer, saying the stock could rise as pricing and product adjustments drive 2010 profit.

"Coldwater Creek is raising prices closer to historical levels, shortening the sales periods and shifting to a more 'item driven' mix with a higher penetration of jackets -- and that's driving healthier margin performance," Jeff Black of Barclays Capital wrote in a note to clients.

Black upgraded Coldwater Creek to "Overweight" from "Equal Weight" and lifted his share price target to $10 from $5.

Shares of Coldwater Creek soared 24 percent Thursday after the retailer provided a fiscal full-year profit outlook above Wall Street's expectations.

In midday trading Friday, the retailer's stock gained 62 cents, or 9.2 percent, to $7.33. Over the past year, the shares have traded between $1.49 and $9.20.


52wk Range: 1.53 - 9.20
Volume: 4,559,648
Avg Vol (3m): 1,026,070

Technicals
Gap Up
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
29.30%above 13-day MA
42.79%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Overweight

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $675.60 
P/E Ratio: 12.62 
PEG Ratio: 4.08295 
Next Earnings: 05/26/2010
Last Analyst Rating: Overweight


Below the 6 month chart...
looks like it may have put in a Triple Bottom

[setravis]

CWTR - Volume Alert
http://www.chartmoney.com/stockquotes.php?ticker=cwtr
Coldwater Creek Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer of women's apparel, accessories, jewelry, and gift items primarily in the United States.