ONXX

[fill_the_gap]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ONXX&t=1d

[ScottishTrader]

Re-post of my ONXX analysis from the options thread:


Right I had a little look at ONXX, and for the most part your charting is pretty much right on.  I would say that the 3 yr weekly chart shows ONXX is in a clear descending channel, although I would point out that support in this channel is much more clearly defined than resistance.  We have no less than 5 tags of this descending support, and if you take that trendline and transpose it to the upper bounds (i.e. move it and connext the top end with the pattern high in March 04) you get a pretty clear channel.  However, the tops of several of the movs do not correspond to the top of the channel, so using it as a sell target may not get made.

In any case, I would say that this chart is looking pretty bearish.  Note that both the RSI and MACD histo are trending downward now, and the CCI on the weekly scale just broke down from above 100.  The last 2 times it did this is signalled a major downward move shortly after (green vertical lines).  SUpport (measured from this weekly chart) looks to come in at 17.80 and 17.66, and below that around 16.85.  Clear overhead resistance comes in around 18.80 and 19.20.  If ONXX were to close above 19.20 on the weekly scale, we could consider that a bullish breakout with a targte of next resistance around $21.  But my intuition is that we won't see that, and this is confirmed by looking at the 6 month daily chart.

When we look at the daily chart, as you correctly noticed, trading through september and october was supported by a clear ascending trendline (note: I have used a semi-log scale here again, mainly becasue the range is quite large, but also we get 4 (or possibly 5) perfect tags of that trendline in the semi-log scale).  It rallied all the way to gap resistance at 19.60 (or 19.75 if you go from the June 2 closing price to the November high).  This resistance looks to be significant for ONXX.  Note also how tboth the RSI and CCI made bearish divergences in their peaks during the later stages of this rally, again suggesting a weakening trend.  However, ofter reaching this high, it has since broken its ascending trendline, and is now beginning to trend lower - and we already have 3 tags of a steep descending trendline that may provide new resistance.  ONXX is sitting right on 17.90 support as of yesterday's close, below that it also has support at 17.66-68.  If these break, next support is around 16.90, and then what should be strong support at $16.  One other thing, CCI is now oversold and rebounding slightly towards -100, which may signal a potential rally from support, but unless this takes out 19.21, I would not call it a bullish move.  In fact, a rally back to 19.20 resistance and failure again at that level would put in a nice H&S top with a technical target of 15.57.

[basonista]

ONXX is an interesting play here on a purely technical view.  As can be seen on the weekly chart (and as pointed out by ScottishTrader), this stock has been in a bearish slide since mid-2004 after capping a 1200% run from early 2003.   What is interesting about this stock is the very definite swings from valley to peak, averaging -49.6% to the downside and +54.25% to the upside.  Technical indicators are bottoming and improving with both STOs crossing up, MACD starting to flatten and RSI turning up just over 30 so it looks like it is ready to make it's next swing up.  A 50% rise from the last low is 15.57 but it's possible that ONXX will want to fill the gap at 17.15.

Even the daily chart is looking better with bullish crosses of both the slow STO and MACD and RSI moving above 30.

[basonista]

Hanging in there...

[basonista]

ONXX still doing well although the shortterm indicators on the daily chart shows that this rally may need to rest a little at this level.  Weekly chart is still getting warmed up with STOs crossing and RSI/MACD indicators continuing to strengthen.

This news came out this week although this was really a non-event since it is just a report on what was already released last week.

Bayer and Onyx Announce Pivotal Nexavar(R) Kidney Cancer Study Published in New England Journal of Medicine

[basonista]

And I was thinking of getting back into this last week...

Bayer, Onyx to Stop Liver Cancer Trial

[ScottishTrader]

ONXX is still absolutely ripping today.  Heavy short position on this one is causing quite a squeeze.  It really has that feeling of "this could just keep on going" today, and as I write this it just hit $24.  The news is obviously  huge, and virtually guarantees approval.

I picked some up in the PM at 20.30, and then started sweating it as it started breaking down in early trading.  Luckily I held on (in fact picked up some Feb 20 calls too, which are doing EXTREMELY well), but this is a bit of a rollercoaster ride now.  Tricky to figure out support and resistance, but there is definietly soem resistance in the 23.70-90 area. I think if it manages to hold above $24, it has a good shot at reaching next resistance at 25.88.  Above that we're talking $27 and $29.  Support should be around $22.40, although it was encountering some resistance on the way up around 22.75

[ScottishTrader]

I mentioned on David's 3SOF intraday trading thread yesterday a symmetrical traingle breakdown on the intraday chart.  I thought I would post its resolution here - ONXX tagged the sym triangle's parallel lower rail at 25.07, late in the afternoon and then rallied all the way back up to $26.  Looks like a bull flag to me now.  ONXX could see some continuation of it breaks the top rail of this flag today.  Target of the flag breakout would be (26.62 - 25.07 = 1.55 + 26.62 = ) 28.17.

There may be more in the tank yet on ONXX

[la-onda]

fyi 
ONYX Pharmaceuticals "buy," target price raised

Wednesday, February 14, 2007 10:27:28 PM ET
Banc of America

NEW YORK, February 14 (newratings.com) - Analyst David Witzke of Banc of America Securities reiterates his "buy" rating on ONYX Pharmaceuticals Inc (ONXX.NAS), while raising his estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $19 to $37.

In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company's share price does not reflect the leverage to the company's EPS from the potential approval of Nexavar for the treatment of HCC (liver cancer). According to the analyst, there is substantial opportunity for ONYX Pharmaceuticals' Nexavar drug in the HCC indication in the US and European markets going forward. The EPS estimates for 2008, 2009 and 2010 have been raised from $0.30 to $1.51, from $0.79 to $3.02 and from $1.36 to $3.50, respectively, to reflect the potential revenue accretion from the HCC indication.

[la-onda]

Onyx Pharma
Briefing.com - February 20, 2007 9:38 AM ET


Lehman Brothers reiterates Overweight. Target $25 to $41.
Lehman raises their tgt on ONXX to $41 from $25 while recent strength has appropriately reflected US impact of Nexavar HCC survival data they believe another leg of upside is justified based on larger ex-U.S. opportunities. Firm notes ONXX announced on Feb 12 positive interim survival data from its 600-patient SHARP study in advanced hepatocullar carcinoma. With a final analysis powered to demonstrate 40% overall survival improvement to 9.7 months, interim data is expected to support a benefit beyond 10 months. With roughly 16,000 advanced HCC patients in the U.S. and LEH U.S. sales ests of $240 mln firm believes that recent share price appreciation appropriately reflects an incremental NPV of $10/share for Nexavar in the U.S. Firm believes that further upside potential may exist to dosing duration from full phase III data, Asian HCC opportunity, pursuit of melanoma compendia listing and NSCLC phase III data.


updated chart:

[la-onda]

chart looks interesting again...

[la-onda]

fyi:
ONXX: Short Interest UP 1.9% to 6.9M in Apr 2007
Tuesday , April 24, 2007 16:20ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for ONYX Pharmaceuticals Inc (NasdaqNM: ONXX) INCREASED 1.9% to 6,872,355 shares for the month ended mid-April, 2007.

SYMBOL         MARCH           APRIL          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
ONXX           6,746,800       6,872,355        +125,555        +1.86%           6

Based on ONXX's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,277,330, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

something is cooking IMO

[ScottishTrader]

ONXX made a big volume spike intrady on Friday, breaking previous highs at $30, then pulling back and finding further strength towards the end of the day.  It appears that this spike may have been related to an upgrade by Morgan Stanley, who set their price target to $37.

It also may be due to "chatter" that Pfizer is having trouble with its liver cancer drug Sutent, which would be a direct competitor to Nexavar.

In any case, it looks like ONXX is shaping up to break $30 next week.  The short term chart is shaping up nicely, and the 3yr weekly chart shows that a break of $30 would be important for the stock.  Whether there is anything else driving this is pure speculation, but a break of $30 (and yesterday's high of 31.30) should put $34 in play.  I've liked ONXX for a while as a biotech with solid prospects, and have jumped back in here (i've been in and out several times over the last few months).

[setravis]

Event.......
Record Price Break Out !


52wk Range: 10.38 - 31.28
Volume: 6,048,221
Avg Vol (3m): 3,346,020

Technicals
Record Price High
Most Actives
Record Price Break Out
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
7.41%above 13-day MA
15.98%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 99 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,434.87 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: -0.88 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2007

[la-onda]

fyi:
Onyx Pharmaceuticals upgraded to "outperform" - update

Monday, June 04, 2007 3:15:24 PM ET
Bear Stearns

NEW YORK, June 4 (newratings.com) – Analyst Akhtar Samad of Bear Stearns upgrades Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc (ONXX.NAS) from "peer perform" to "outperform." The target price is set to $40.

In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company is unlikely to witness competition for Nexavar in liver cancer (HCC) in the near term, and the duration of the therapy is expected to be longer than was previously anticipated. The analyst expresses his optimism regarding Nexavar becoming the standard of care in HCC going forward. The worldwide sales estimates for Nexavar in HCC for 2007, 2008 and 2010 have been raised from $0 to $10 million, from $78 million to $134 million and from $332 million to $547 million, respectively.