SWKS

[David Randolph]

Skyworks Solutions, Inc (SWKS). Formerly known as Alpha Industries Incorporated. The Group's principal activities are to design, develop, manufacture and market proprietary semiconductor products and system solutions for manufacturers of wireless products.

The chart tells the story:



After a big fall SWKS emerged and crossed a descending resistance line and made a beautiful double bottom. With the close above $5.84 the pattern is confirmed and we should now expect $6.63 as the short term target for the stock.

I'm buying this at the open.

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[David Randolph]

SWKS

[David Randolph]

... reach target in a few days.

[David Randolph]

... there at the target. Just on more little push and I'll take profits. You see the motive that led me to buy SWKS was the confirmed double bottom. That double bottom has an expected technical target - I have to sell at that target since I'm trading based on the double bottom pattern.

[David Randolph]

... more push, I know you can make it 

[David Randolph]

Some investors thought it was wise to sell SWKS yesterday but bulls came back a bit at the end of the session. Still waiting for $6.63 to take profits.

[David Randolph]

... and a 11.6% profit in my pocket. Sold my position in SWKS @ $6.63.

[la-onda]

SWKS with BO today, any updates from you Dave? 

[David Randolph]

It seems that «confirmed double bottom» had more to give than I thought ... extremely bullish chart pattern on SWKS !

[setravis]

A pre-market mover.....

SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS (NasdaqGS:SWKS) Delayed quote data 

Pre-Market: 6.83  1.77 (34.98%) Volume @ 2 mil

[la-onda]

fyi:

Oct 3 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse on Tuesday raised its rating on Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) to "neutral" from "underperform," and price target to $9.50 from $4.50.

In a research note, the brokerage cited the chipmaker's intention to exit its baseband business and implement a strategic restructuring.

Credit Suisse said it was more optimistic on Skyworks' prospects and fundamentals are healthy for the company.

[David Randolph]

1. Introduction

Lol, it's interesting to see the way I saw stocks 18 months ago and the way I see them now. What a difference, I hope to the better, of course

After that "analysis" on May 2005, SWKS has been up and down a lot. Now it's moving up again, so I want to know, what's up?

2. Profile

Skyworks Solutions, Inc. offers analog and mixed signal semiconductors that enable mobile connectivity worldwide. It provides mobile platform products, such as power amplifiers, front-end modules, and direct conversion transceivers for multimedia handsets. (complete profile here)

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart



This long term chart shows SWKS has been around for a very long time (I don't know how long, since my Metastock database only goes back to 1980).

The stock had its bubble in 1999/2000 as most technology related stocks and then the usual collapse. It has been kind of dead for more than four years now, considering this long term scope.

3.2. Medium Term Chart



The medium term trend is still bearish and SWKS is approaching the upper end of a descending channel.

3.3. Short Term Chart



I like it when stocks make these huge gaps, it usually means there was an important fundamental change within the company, which can lead to a big swing in the stock price. The short term trend is definitely bullish.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



Dilution, dilution, dilution ! Let's see how much, on average, since 1995:

16.67*(X^12) = 162.88 <=> X^12 = 9.77 <=> X = 20.92%

This means the market cap was up 20.92% every year, on average, since 1995, just due to the rise in the number of shares issued and outstanding. So you can't use just the stock chart to get the historical context, because the same stock price now and in 1995 represent completely different market values for the whole company. In fact, Friday's closing price of $7.86, represents a market cap of $1.28 B. In 1995, the same $7.86 PPS meant the company was worth just $131 M.

The current market cap is 162,876,234*$7.86 = $1.28 B.

4.2. Liquidity



SWKS's balance sheet is acceptable.

4.3. Revenues



After the revenue debacle in 2002, revenues have been trending higher. The 2006 number was slightly lower than in 2005, but analysts expect revenues to jump to a new all time high in fiscal 2007 (which ends in September 07).

The revenue multiple is $1.28 B/$773 M = 1.66. The Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits average is 2.19.

4.4. Profits



This is quite an erratic EPS graph, which usually leads to a below average valuation. As analysts say "there's not much visibility".

If we believe the fiscal 2007 EPS estimate, the stock is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 14.

4.5. Recent News

- Skyworks Fireworks

By TSC Staff
10/3/2006 2:17 PM EDT

It was this news that made that huge gap on October 3. I think that what really sparked the rally was the company's guidance of $0.55 - $0.60 fiscal 2007 EPS, compared to $0.29 First Call estimates.

- Skyworks Takes Flight

By Alexei Oreskovic
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
12/15/2006 12:41 PM EST

«"Our channel work has led us to conclude that Skyworks has been selected to supply the Front-End Module (power amplifier and switch) to Apple's new iPhone, which should begin contributing to revenue during the first half of 2007," wrote Stifel Nicolaus analyst Cody Acree in a note to investors on Friday.»

So, pure speculation is driving the stock over the short term. That's fine by me.

5. General Overview

SWKS has a turbulent past and an history of diluting shareholders value. I'm not sure I'm willing to trust what they say or what their market maker says.

Although on the surface this iPhone rumor is very bullish, longer term I don't like to buy stocks based on rumors only, especially when those rumors come from someone connected with the company.

The undervaluation isn't all that big, so I'll pass this one.

Good luck to anyone buying or holding SWKS

I'm making 3 analysis a day, recovering the 3 Stocks on Fire original spirit. If you would like to receive my analysis on your mailbox everyday, please register a Free 3SOF account.

[REALDEALS21]

GOOD TO SHORT HERE

[la-onda]

fyi:
Skyworks "sector outperform," target price reduced
Friday, March 23, 2007 10:58:40 PM ET
CIBC World Markets
NEW YORK, March 23 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at CIBC World Markets reiterate their "sector outperform" rating on Skyworks Inc (SWKS.NAS). The target price has been reduced from $9 to $8.
&
Skyworks Solutions "sell," target price reduced
Monday, January 29, 2007 8:00:07 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, January 29 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities maintain their "sell" rating on Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS.NAS). The target price has been reduced from $6 to $5.50.
In a research note published on January 26, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 1Q07 revenues short of the estimates. Skyworks Solutions declined from issuing guidance for FY07, while indicating that it would meet the guidance for the next quarter. This reflects the increased lack of clarity over the next two-to-three quarters, the analysts say.
&
Skyworks Solutions downgraded to "neutral"
Saturday, January 27, 2007 2:23:53 AM ET
Oppenheimer
NEW YORK, January 27 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Oppenheimer & Co downgrade Skyworks Solutions (SWKS.NAS) from "buy" to "neutral."