BCON - Sector: Utilities --- Industry: Electric Utilities

[Stocky2000]

the real run might happen next week.....look how stable and steady we were today. The last big run in August started similar...nice white candle...then 3 candles consolidation (looking like islands). Then boom up....this repeats i am convinced. Did we leave trendline 1 already ??

[Stocky2000]

  Heavy accumulation

[Melf Elf]

hey melf,
you'll never go broke taking profits. nice trade!

i didn't end getting in after all , just missed my chance on the run up .
so , there is always another opportuntity in the market
happy trading
maxi

Thanks, maxi.  Sure, there are lots of opportunites in the market.  I read your comments on HOM in that folder.  Applause.  It was up 6% today, and finally got back above its 50DMA.  The Kumo (Cloud) is overhead at 5.63 - 5.815, so that kept me from playing it.

the real run might happen next week.....look how stable and steady we were today. The last big run in August started similar...nice white candle...then 3 candles consolidation (looking like islands). Then boom up....this repeats i am convinced. Did we leave trendline 1 already ??

ket1390,

Very possible, especially with the technicals still looking good, as you show on your chart.  Good point about those candles, prior to to the August rally.  If yesterday's selloff/reversal candle hadn't been so severe, I'd be much less cautious.  I probably am being too cautious.

Thanks for your good comments and charts.  Applause.  I hope that BCON rallies real big next week for those of you who still are long.  Good luck!

[Stocky2000]

Melf Elf thanks for the applaud...welcome back anytime with your professional analysis. I also appreciate it a lot...thanks.

ket1390

[Stocky2000]

Melf Elf ; could this have been a bear trap on thursday ?? this week i used the first time this MA Envelope...Thursday Bcon fell out....now Bcon ist back in..did you see...do yo know this MA Envelope?

[Melf Elf]

Melf Elf ; could this have been a bear trap on thursday ??

ket1390,

That would depend on how the envelope is being used.  If someone used a close below the envelope, or an entire candlestick below the envelope as a sell stop, and then the stock goes higher, that would be fair to say that the "false sell" in that case was a Bear Trap. 

this week i used the first time this MA Envelope...Thursday Bcon fell out....now Bcon ist back in..did you see...

Yes, I see what you mean, but that doesn't tell us anything yet. 

For example, BCON could go lower from here, and without a momentum move to the downside that would take the stock below your envelope, like the quick drop from 2.37 to 2.07 on Thursday, BCON could go lower, your envelope would turn down, and the stock could go lower and lower and lower without ever falling out of the envelope. 

The same thing could happen on the upside, too.  You need a momentum move in one direction or the other to move the stock out of the envelope again.

do yo know this MA Envelope?

No, but I'm familiar with envelopes and things like "Bollinger Bands," in general.   

A good example of a Bear Trap, by the way, was the intraday move below the Symmetrical Triangle on December 28 (see chart below).  I wasn't in the stock, but it's a good example because it had me trapped, mentally. 

That violation of the trendline to the downside had me thinking "bearish."  Lucas Scott (Luke) posted that the stock ended the day on a bullish upside reversal, which was right.  I got back in it the next day.  Then BCON sold off two days later, and I got back out again.

   

That's when I decided to stay out of it because I was being "trapped" into thinking that it was bearish...no, it's bullish...no, it's bearish...no, it's bullish...

"When in doubt...STAY OUT."  Wait and let the stock tell you what it wants to do, and if it's "lying to you," then get out.  The key for me was that print of 1.93 on January 9.  That was a DOUBLE breakout above 1.92, and strongly suggested that the Bear Trap was "sprung," and that the December 28 move down to 1.76 was a Bear Trap, or a "fakeout."

Mind you, the print of 1.93 "could have been" a Bull Trap if we hadn't gotten the follow-thru to upside like we did, but that looked like pretty good evidence, and the techniclaly driven rally that followed was good confirmation of that.  If the stock had been "lying to me" about a breakout to the upside (a Bull Trap), I would have had to get out of it again.

A "Bull Trap" now would be a selloff back to the lows.  BCON broke out above 2.15, making maxi's "higher high," and got us thinking "bullish," which, so far, was right because we got the move to next horizontal resistance at 2.35.

But, that move "could be" a Bull Trap because we've got:

1. Three bearish-looking candlesticks

2. A possible H&S Top on the intraday chart - Neckline is 2.05 2.07.

3. No close yet above 2.15.  We've got closes of 2.13...2.15...2.10...2.14.

The technicals look good, though, as you showed on your charts. 

I don't know why this devil makes me so suspicious.          

[rickjust]

hi,
that kangaroo tale that happened on the 1/12 might suggest a rejection of higher prices. at least in the short term.
just a sittin' and a waitin'
you can't lose money being out of the market. the signals for bcon are to indicisive at the moment. no trend has really shown it self yet. i will be looking for the "higher bottom on the swing chart first.
thanks,
maxi




   


   

[Melf Elf]

But, that move "could be" a Bull Trap because we've got:

1. Three bearish-looking candlesticks

2. A possible H&S Top on the intraday chart - Neckline is 2.05 2.07.

3. No close yet above 2.15.  We've got closes of 2.13...2.15...2.10...2.14.

The technicals look good, though, as you showed on your charts. 

I don't know why this devil makes me so suspicious.          

2.05-2.07 support broke at 11:42AM this morning.  We're right at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) now. 

BCON currently is BID 2.02...ASK 2.03

[Melf Elf]

Sold all of my BCON at 2.20.  Gain: 14%

Bought back my BCON at 1.95 on the whooooosh to the downside here. 

[Melf Elf]

Short-term, this looks like we're at least going to the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud),

The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) now is 1.94495.  BCON closed at 1.96.

and possibly back for a re-test of the breakout. 

The breakout was above 1.92.  Yesterday's low was all the way back to 1.92. 

I don't know why I bought this devil back.     

The fact that 1.92 held is good, but I would describe that 1.96 close as "ending on a dumb note."  I expected a bullish hammer or an upside reversal off that 1.92 support.

I've got a slight "Oops!" in my RSI, which should be okay if BCON closes higher today. MACD is getting ready to cross below its signal line, so we can't fool around here.

The 50/200DMAs still are bullishly positioned.  The 200DMA at yesterday's close was 1.905.  The bottom of the Bullish Falling Wedge (blue lines) is 1.904.

The top of the Falling Wedge (blue lines) comes in today, January 26, at 2.084 and falls at the rate of 0.02857 per day.  We need to take that out to the upside.  BADLY. 

Strategy:

I've got a gain of 15½% on my three trades since December 5, all posted earlier in this thread.  I don't plan to give much of it back.  If we go down on volume and break 1.90 , I likely will sell, depending on the tape action, and settle for an overall gain of 11-12%. 

Good luck to those still long!

TAKE OUT THAT BULLISH FALLING WEDGE!!!!!!!!

[Melf Elf]

This devil is really trying to annoy us, hanging about at the ubiquitous 1.92 like this.

[Melf Elf]

The 200DMA at yesterday's close was 1.905.  The bottom of the Bullish Falling Wedge (blue lines) is 1.904.

So, let's straddle those numbers, and make a low of 1.90, and a close at 1.91!!

I hate this stupid stock.      

BCON closed below the 1.92 breakout, but it is sitting on its 200DMA, and is at the bottom of the wedge, both at 1.91

Oh-h-h, the torment!!

Strategy:

I've got a gain of 15½% on my three trades since December 5, all posted earlier in this thread.  I don't plan to give much of it back.  If we go down on volume and break 1.90 , I likely will sell, depending on the tape action, and settle for an overall gain of 11-12%.

The problem with a Falling Wedge is that the stop keeps falling.  It will come in today at 1.89.  The up trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle comes in at 1.84.

Sigh...

Okay, I was going to fold at 1.89, but since I had a good exit at 2.20 (and thought I had a good re-entry at 1.95), I'm willing to be generous.  I'll "pay to play" and risk a FOURTH tag of that up trendline at 1.84 (might print 1.83...1.82 for a bear trap fakeout).

But, if BCON is set to CLOSE anywhere down there, I'll sell, even though it might hold and rally from there.  I'm just not willing to give back all of my gains.  Strictly a money management decision.  If we test that up trendline again, I want a bang off there, and a close inside that wedge (blue lines), at 1.89 or better.

STOP THE TORMENT....RALLY, YOU DEVIL!!! 

[Melf Elf]

MACD has crossed below its signal line.  I never view signals from an indicator as an "automatic sell," or an "automatic buy."  View those signals in the context of what PRICE is doing.

1. BCON never closed above 2.15, the December 15 high, above which we made a bullish "higher high," and on the way down from the 2.37 high, 2.15 didn't act as support.  We sliced right through it, and went to 2.07 that day.

2. 1.92 was the top of a little Ascending Triangle, where we got the breakout, printing 1.93.  1.92 was support on Wednesday, which was good, but it wasn't support yesterday: we closed below it at 1.91.

So, my view is that "we've been warned" by MACD crossing below its signal line, and PRICE isn't finding support at former resistance, which it should do.

If BCON rallies here, we could be looking at a "false sell signal" from the MACD.  But, let's say BCON closes right at 1.84 support today (the bottom of the Ascending Triangle).  MACD will continue lower, following through on its "sell signal."

Then, let's say Monday, BCON gaps down.  Duh-h-h...we were "warned" by the MACD crossover, and PRICE not finding support at former resistance.

That's why I'll sell, right or wrong, if we're set to close below the wedge, and down near the bottom of the Ascending Triangle.  While that might hold, I'll have both indicators and price telling me that the situation isn't looking so good, and I'd be kicking myself if that support broke next week.

If 1.84 does end up being support, I always can enter the stock later, for a FIFTH time.

NO-OO-OO...END THE MADNESS!!! 
 

[Melf Elf]

Another Oops! in the RSI...another warning of technical weakness. 

[Melf Elf]

BCON closed below the Kumo (Cloud), and the Tenkan-Sen, at 2.06, made a beaish cross by half a penny below the Kijun-Sen at 2.065.  Those two act lke a price-related MACD.

The top of the Rising Wedge for today, January 27, also comes in near there, at 2.056.

BCON really needs to take that out to the upside.  Otherwise, "the door gets slammed"  so to speak, with that bearish cross at 2.06, the top of the wedge.

DON'T GIVE US A WEDGIE....TAKE OUT THE WEDGE!!!