END

[David Randolph]

Endeavour International Corporation (END) is an international oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of energy reserves in the North Sea. For more information, visit http://www.endeavourcorp.com.

I really like the fundamentals on END, every tick oil rises it is immediately reflected on the company's revenues and earnings.

Technically volume and price are pushing higher in tandem, which is a bullish behavior as everybody knows:



Longer term the stock just crossed an important descending downtrend:



I can design a high reward/low risk trading plan with this kind of stock that is at a 52 week high. But I'll do that just tonight, on my first update of the analysis on END.

I'll buy END at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% as usual. I will update the analysis on END everyday after the close until I sell the stock.

www.3stocksonfire.org is a Community of traders and investors in stocks. At 3 Stocks on Fire we manage a public and diversified portfolio which is up 144% since April 28th 2005.

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[David Randolph]

I said I would put a trading plan for END, one that is able to get the upside potential at the same time it limits risk.

Usually my plan is very simple, and that is, to hold as long as the trend remains bullish and sell when it turns bearish.

There are a lot of ways to define the trend, being the most recognized and used the trendlines and moving averages. I've been using trendlines a lot, but I find moving averages very valuable too, so for END I'll design my technical trading plan based on moving averages crossovers.

I put a 10 day SMA on the chart (green line) and a 50 day SMA (red line). Now it is simple: I will hold END as long as the green line is above the red line.

[nikao]

interesting tradingplan! (at this time I only use the trendlines as rules..and the MA as side information just like Volume)

At what price did you enter yesterday?

[Jasssie]

Hello!

This my first post here on 3SF. Very nice website, David! 

I'll follow your trades! 

[David Randolph]

interesting tradingplan! (at this time I only use the trendlines as rules..and the MA as side information just like Volume)

At what price did you enter yesterday?

You can always see this information on the 3 Stocks on Fire link at the lateral menu. As you can see it was at $4.45.

Hello!

This my first post here on 3SF. Very nice website, David!

I'll follow your trades!

Thanks Jassie, good luck for us 

[David Randolph]

I'll just monitor the stock everyday and keep the plan. I don't even have to read news or hear rumors, the plan is the plan, and the plan will be followed.

Today, the green moving average is above the red one, so I'll hold END.

[David Randolph]

END was a bit overextended or overbought as you prefer and after a gap up at the open the stock couldn't hold the advance and traders sold off in profit taking. Nothing serious about this market action, just normal market behavior.

The 10 day SMA (green) is above the 50 day SMA (red) so I'll continue to hold END.

[David Randolph]

Yeah, this is what happens when a stock is truly bullish: after a big red candle you get an even bigger white one.

7.57% rise was really marvelous after yesterday's decline. I don't have much to think about, of course the green line is above the red one, so let the profits run on END.

[rabidmonk]

David,

I must disagree on END being a buy. If anything, in my opinion, I would be looking to exit this stock this week.

Reasons:

DPO's (all values) PEGGED in 5 year, 1 year, and 60 day chart

PPS riding upper edge of Bolinger Bands, all periods, and I expect exhaustion spike on Friday, with high of day at close, resulting in a White hammer all periods.

Fisher Transforms -- pegged at top of chart in 5 and 1 year chart, but negatively divergent in 60 day as I type this.

Williams % R -- as of today, top of chart (0.000) with Polarized Fractal Efficiency (10,5) at 107.12 as viewed in a one year chart. Historically, the last time anything close to these points occurred these last few years was on the peak of 10/27/04.

Linear Regression Channel 100% -- Pegged the top line and closed there with concentric True Strength Index (55,13) Pegged as well as viewed in 5 year, 1 year, and 60 day charts.

Stochastic Momentum, Relative Momentum multiple values -- all at the top of the chart.

Money Flow Indexes -- all pegged the top of the chart today at close.

Projection oscillators -- all values -- all pegged the top of the chart today

ROC - (-66-) pegged.  others I suspect will hit come Friday

RSI, Wilder (-8-) with Inverse Fisher Transform (9.1) Flat top at top of chart.

Stochastic RSI -- LoL! Guess! (all values 11 through 235)

I'm thinking we will see a few days at these levels, perhaps that final stab on Friday, and the sideways downward motion over the next six to eight months on this one. Granted maybe a pop as high as $5.15 -$5.20 before the fork goes in it --- It just depends on how many people read this post. Ha.

I very much appreciate this web site and your trading ideas, and regret being the blacksheep contrarian to your views on END, but I just have to call this one like I see it. ---- Regards,  Rabidmonk

[David Randolph]

I very much appreciate this web site and your trading ideas, and regret being the blacksheep contrarian to your views on END, but I just have to call this one like I see it. ---- Regards,  Rabidmonk

Of course, thanks a lot for your post Rabidmonk, very interesting indeed. It looks like you're a pure technician, right? Well, I'm not so pure, sometimes I enter into fundamental considerations, those things that eventually make a man lose his money 

Anyway, I don't have a clue if you're right or not. Your analysis is too complex for me. I use just traditional technical analysis (trendlines, moving averages, volume, candlesticks), keeping it simple. I've been there, studying all indicators and looking for confirmations but I just got tired.  I believe most of that stuff doesn't work anyway (no offense).

You see, the market is so unstructured, allowing a man to be so free, that if he doesn't keep it simple he gets lost with time ... and RULE 46 says «The Smarter You Are, the Longer it Takes».

But thanks for your analysis, keep them coming 

My analysis on END is:

1) Volume was higher on the advance day and the candle was bigger than on this decline day, which was smaller and with much less volume.
2) I got a plan to follow and that plan is to hold END as long as the green line (10 day simple moving average) is above the red line (50 day simple moving average).

[rabidmonk]

David, you are truly a gentleman through and through, and I appreciate the service you and this site offer. Thank you for your gracious response, and for giving this 'newbie' encouragement to post again! 

Regards and ~bows~

Rabidmonk

[David Randolph]

David, you are truly a gentleman through and through, and I appreciate the service you and this site offer. Thank you for your gracious response, and for giving this 'newbie' encouragement to post again! 

Regards and ~bows~

Rabidmonk

You're welcome Rabidmonk  Yes, you really need to keep those complex analysis coming, it seems you were right on END, at least short term (well, of course an analysis doesn't need to be right to be interesting, or soon I would be out of a job  LOL  )

I feel so dumb having designed such a simple plan on END ... but now I have to follow it, I really need a strong motive to change a previously made trading plan (and that change must be previous to selling - nothing on the intraday changes my opinion on a particular stock) and I don't have one on END.

So, the here comes the dumb question: did the green line closed above the red one?

Yes ! So I'll hold the stock.

[David Randolph]

The rally on END today came out of nothing, no candlestick pre-warning and low volume of only 262,600 shares. I guess this sort of thing happens when stocks are bullish 

Green line value = $4.57 > Red line value =$3.97 => Hold END.

[rabidmonk]

Hi David,

Yes indeed that rally sure burst out of nothing... I think I was off on my guesstamation that the exhaustion spike would occur on Friday, as it looks like it might be early this week instead.

The market is a fascinating beast, is it not? Consider the fact that we (you and I ) are each holding and banking on diametrically opposite issues, who, FWIW, have equally opposite TA, but with one thing in common -- negative divergences in the TA.

Here we have END going up "out of nothing", with negative divergences in the accompanying technicals, and my favorite pick, SYNX going down with opposing divergences. Neither make sense in a technical perspective unless one ponders the possibility that when things look too good to be "true" they probably are, and equally in the balance, when things look too bad to be true, they probably are, especially when the tools we use to monitor and gauge tells us something fishy got tossed into the soup! 

I sincerely hope that you will scalp the top off this market in END, wherever it might be. 

Rabidmonk

[David Randolph]

Hello rabidmonk 

The market is a fascinating beast, is it not?

Well, you know, I used to think that way too, but now, after years of taking punches and suffering I don't find it so fascinating  I used to love study everything related with the markets, spent the best part of my life studying, thinking and talking almost stock market only.

Now I find trading to be a job as any other, which I make with pleasure, but not fascinating 
Sometimes I'm sad that I've lost some of the passion for the markets, but you know, passions are fast and furious and friendship may last forever 

Consider the fact that we (you and I ) are each holding and banking on diametrically opposite issues, who, FWIW, have equally opposite TA, but with one thing in common -- negative divergences in the TA.

Considering this comment you've made I think of just one thing: identifying trend is the most important issue in TA. Divergences between the trend and some technical indicators are factors much below in the scale of importance. The trend is yours truly friend (your market dad and mother), divergences are just some guys you met at birthday parties or marriages and see only once or twice a year 

Nice posts rabidmonk, good luck with SYNX 

Going to END, I really must be disgusted with the market, my brain does just a tiny little effort to say: «the green line is above the red line so you hold the stock David.»