Stocky's Diary

[stocky]

17 Sept, 2005

Good morning everyone. I like the early calms of Saturdays. I would like to sleep more but could not. Have to enjoy every minute of it

I visited COSTCO yesterday for some shopping. One thing I 'wished' there was SLAMMERS and I am certain that any PR with supplies to COSTCO will mean really something. Hope that could happen in near future. Like David I am long term bullish but near terms I am expecting least from BRVO due to the technical picture.

[stocky]

18 Sept, 2005

I think since I am mentioning 3SF picks here I have to request Ramsburg to move this thread to Members Board. This will be fair to subscribers and I hope will avoid any potential conflict with 3SF diclosure clauses after 30 September.

I am looking at 2 picks from saffeysite [MSLV, BVEW], 1 from eliteG [AVNC], 2 from JMoney aka J.B.[COOL, UNCN].

In addition, I am also looking at NEXM, VPHM, HQSM, HYRF, SQUM. 

I will be reducing my double positions in AOB and DROOY to single positions, if they spike on Monday. [Now thats the day trader etching in me ]

[stocky]

19 Sept, 2005

Good morning. Scanning the market. Seems like gold is running and oil is catching up today.

As planned, reduced DROOY and AOB to full position. [lucky to do that near highs 1.58 and 5.15]

Bought full positions in SVA, GOLD, GSS and CDE [just few pennies under david's buys]

Back from work.

At this point there are really four sectors: OIL, GOLD, RECONSTRUCTION and BIOTECH. If you are holding some other stock then you need to have some very solid reasons. A little pullback in gold stocks is a good opportunity.

Black gold may be the favourite for momo crowd for the whole week. And if you really want to pick some gems then dont forget the biotechs.

I would love to see some selling in VPHM kinds, so that I can buy a ship load [VPHM holders beware of my intentions ]. In addition, I am looking at GNTA, GERN, NEXM, NVAX.

Also I think stocks like HOM are going to be winners in the current scenario. Will scan for more reconstruction names.

I dont have OIL and I am concerned about it. When I started my diary I had about dozen names. And it takes lot of huffing and puffing to buy back higher. I will wait for david's take and picks. At the moment I think I have enough of defence in my portfolio. Quite curious how market will react to Fed.

My oil favourites still are VLO, CHK, UPL 

Got some ideas from Cumulina - the alt energy queen about playing the alt. energy sector. Her takes are ENER, DSTI and ESLR. I prefer DSTI over ESLR and WWAT b/c of valuation and potential momo history. ENER is a winner in its own regard. For the time being I will watch them closely. Though when the madness is there you can get rich by just sitting on a sole oil gallon.

The gold&silver share is quite 'large'. Also I think GLD is the blue chip [ETF] of the sector and deserves better place then most of the gold stocks, so I may readjust the gold sector. Have not decided which one to dump.

Holding 35% in Gold & Silver Stocks [USGL, GG, GOLD, GSS, DROOY, CDE], 12.6% Biotech [AOB, SVA], 10.5% Reconstruction [HOM, thats my 6.66% has swelled to 10.5%  ], 4% Beverages [BRVO] and 36% Cash.

[stocky]

20 Sept, 2005

Stem cell related stocks are up. My favourite in the group GERN is up but not as much as STEM and ASTM. But would not like to buy on gap up. Will pass this opportunity.

Gold stocks seems overbought and we may see some more profit taking. But not sure where the price will end by the days end.

Doubled SVA at 3.8
Doubled GSS at 3.47

Back from work. So the golden profit taking did take place. Have to see tomorrow.

Supports on gold stocks:
GSS 3.21, DROOY 1.29, GOLD 14.38, GG 19.28, CDE 3.95

current prices
GSS 3.46, DROOY 1.34, GOLD 15.19, GG 19.69, CDE 4.06

And one of the best ways to track gold is GLD. So watch out. Also keep AUY on radar. It has better chart from many in the gold gang. Currently at support and have another support at 4.09.

Goodluck all.

[stocky]

21 Sept, 2005

Gold futures are up and seems like will lift the sector at open. I will continue with my plan.

Watching CHK.

Sold USGL, GSS, half of SVA, GG, half of DROOY

Back from work. Wow and whooshp. Not going to complaint about selling my gold goodies. My portfolio is working fine with DROOY, GOLD, CDE. Will buy along david any other gold stock. Thats why I say, lets trade with 3SF.

I am seeing buying opportunity developing in so many stocks. Gold stocks will run for sure but I need to have some settled cash in my account to buy when the stocks hit bottom when RITA has finally died.

I will be selling more tomorrow. Better to put cash in the pocket and step aside.

Meanwhile developing wish list:

1. VPHM
2. GOOG
3. AAPL

[stocky]

22 Sept, 2005

Can't argue the bull case   Will flow with general trend.

Getting ready for sells BUT will watch action in individual stocks at open.

Sold BRVO, SVA, AOB, DROOY [gold is bullish but this stock is bit risky for me, would add some other gold stock in its place].

Bought CHK and AOB [about 30 cents cheaper then I sold], VPHM

Part 2. Back from work. Ooops, so if my stock was hit real hard with 58% cash then I am assuming that if you have little loss then you are lucky. Dont worry we may see rally either tomorrow or early next week. And its part of the game, isn't it. Just keep ready your wish list.

Applaud and thanks wrangler for the pick. Just as a rule I donot trade PK now. The market is merciless and I donot trust anything but King Cash. If I am holding some stuff then I must emphasis that they are for now short term. Let see what tomorrow hold for us.

Goodluck all.

[wrangler]

Hi stocky
Here's an oil stock you might want to put on you're watch list: DPRK.PK latest news
Press Release Source: Deep Rock Oil & Gas, Inc.


Deep Rock Oil & Gas, Inc. Signs Letter of Intent to Acquire 5.8265 Percent Net Profits Interest in the Big Foot Oil Field in Texas
Tuesday September 20, 11:57 am ET


TULSA, Okla., Sept. 20, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- Deep Rock Oil & Gas, Inc. (Other OTC:DPRK.PK - News) announced today that it has signed a letter of intent to acquire a 5.8265 percent net profits interest in the Big Foot oil field in Frio County, Texas. Tulsa-based Lee Keeling & Associates has estimated the net remaining developed and undeveloped reserves of the Big Foot oil field at 4,601,309 BBO with a future net revenue of approximately $188,143,578, based upon field contract and NYMEX per barrel oil prices (estimated at $55.92/barrel).


The Company anticipates it will close the transaction by October 7, 2005, upon its completion of due diligence and execution of a definitive agreement.

Future gross oil production is estimated at 5,457,826 BBO.

The Big Foot field is an oil producing property originally developed by Shell Oil Co. and Texaco in the 1950s. Currently, Big Foot's operator, Maverick Energy Group, Inc., intends to drill 100 additional wells in the field. Average production is expected to be 20 barrels of oil per day with total reserves per well at 30,000 BBO.

[stocky]

23 Sept, 2005

I have always distasted commodity related stocks, that includes both oil and gold, b/c of their dependence on the commodity price. Anyway, have to time them better in future.

I intend to be selling again today. The volatility has caused me quite a bit and would like to put more cash in the pocket.

Sold: CDE, CHK [intend to buy lower next week], AOB [technical picture has turned nasty to me]

Holding at the moment: HOM [will sell if I see a close below 4.5], GOLD [will leave this for a while], VPHM[would like to double it on any further weakness]

Bought HYRF, I think its getting ready for G-Pattern and I dont want to miss on that.

I think its time to update my wish list:

1. VLO
2. CHK
3. PDLI
4. SVA
5. ABGX
6. GOOG
7. AAPL
8. USGL

But I would like to buy them lot cheaper then the current quote. I hope I will get the opportunity by next week.

Sold half of HOM at 5.09

Bought HW at 37.05. I think this one should benefit from current storm and high oil scenario. Interesting company with triple digit growth. Currently the stock is at the support.

Sold rest of HOM at 5.35

King Cash: 75%
Holding: HW, GOLD, VPHM and HYRF

Off from work today and missing every minute of it.

[stocky]

24 Sept, 2005

Its pleasant weather here in LA and I am comfortable with holding 3/4th of portfolio in cash. Its going to be deceptive trading on Monday. I am not sure how much RITA is priced in but will come to know by Tuesday close. This is the best time to make your wish list. I have mine and I am regularly updating it. Though at the moment I prefer cash over any stock. Reason is pretty simple: I dont have a clue about the impact of RITA and how market is going to react. Will see that next week.

Strategy 
Cash and Run. Taking small positions in strongest and may be less speculative stocks. I am finding it hard to find such stocks. 3SF has not come up with any new stock except 4 gold related stocks, in last week. My priority now is to tread carefully and preserve capital. I am sure I will miss many moves but hope that there will be better and bigger opportunities waiting in future.

Portfolio
GOLD x 1     +3.68%
HW    x 1     -0.27%
VPHM x 1     +4.22%
HYRF  x 0.7  +4.26%

I dont intend to keep these stocks for long term. Will sell sooner then later.

Goodluck all.

[stocky]

25 Sept, 2005

Though its true that gas retail is going down here in LA, which I think would be a temporary relief.

I would look for some very short term buying in some of my wish list and would like to book profits in my current holdings [except GOLD, which I think is one of the best stocks or ticker]

Wish List:
HOM, SVA, USGL, GSS, FCX, CHK [around 34], EWJ, GLD

EWJ is a slow mover but I think it could be a nice long term holding. Any weakness in oil group could be a good opportunity to start small position. Again CHK, VLO and UPL are my favorite in the group.

Starting this post I am going to post change in portfolio every week [above my latest portfolio goal, i.e. the benchmark]. This choosen bench mark is just a convenient way to track the progress. I am not putting any numbers b/c its immaterial, the gain/loss percentage is the real important thing.

Portfolio Level Compared to Benchmark [PLCB]= +1.23%

Trading Goals
All the times   = Preserving capital
Short Term [by 31 Dec, 2005]     = +47%   of PLCB
Medium Term [by 31 Dec, 2006]  = +167% of PLCB
Long Term [Continuous]  = Anything above Medium Term Goals

Speaking about Monday, I think traders were getting ahead of themselves and the market was pretty green on Thu and Fri. So I dont expect any bounce long lived. I am expecting downside pressure to increase once the eager hands jumps in. Candidly I have no clue and may be surprised by the market action. Would be quick in any trades though. Hope we all make a buck here.

Goodluck all.

[stocky]

26 Sept, 2005

I have decided to sell all my stocks by Tuesday. The reason is the schedule at my new job. Due to the schedule I am not sure about free time during market hours [atleast for couple of weeks].

Given the implied volatility I would rather be all cash [though I am already 75% cash]. Meanwhile I would only be updating the diary weekly. 

Sold VPHM and GOLD. Will hold HW for atleast couple of more days.

I am expecting momentum in HYRF, so will wait for it a bit.

Waited on HYRF, and it could go up in a big way. But I am getting out as planned. Sold HYRF. Now only left with HW which I hope to sell by tomorrow

Thanks wrangler. Also I did not intend to add more but liked to quote Alan Farley advice in the current market:

===========================================================
What can you do to prosper in this tough-luck environment? Here are three trading strategies that should work well in the weeks ahead.

1. Cut down position size, frequency and holding period. Be patient and don't try to get rich in a market that's not offering the low-hanging fruit. Sitting on your hands is an aggressive strategy when applied at the right time ... and that time is now.

2. Focus your attention on the handful of sectors that still work in this environment. Katrina plays and biotech stocks illustrate two groups that don't seem affected by index twists and turns. Those are the right places to look for opportunities, if you feel like going long.

3. Build a list of short sales and the prices you're willing to sell on this bounce. But watch out because amateur short-selling has been very active since Katrina. This should trigger renewed short squeezes well into October
===========================================================

Hope that help somebody. Goodluck all.

[wrangler]

Good luck at you're new job.Will look forward to you're post on this thread.Have injoyed reading it.

[stocky]

28 Sept, 2005

It was harder then I thought, NOT the new job but living without the diary

I am back, though I still can't write consistently. I may have to get wireless broadband for my laptop otherwise T-mobile hotspot is making a killing on my account.

The market as I said is deceptive. However, I must add that OIL sector is making a move like G-Spot. The best of breed are still VLO, CHK, KCS, UPL, HAL [refiner, ngas, ngas, ind oil, oil service]. Also if you want to flirt with gold then GLD is the way to go. I must also say that some exposure to foreign markets is desireable in current scenario. The two I will suggest are EWJ [japs] and EWC [canada]. Chart of both these ETFs are remarkable.

And for sure if you are on 3SF then HYRF and EYII are plays. I have studied both and think they will eventually move lot higher then their current quote. But must add that they are risky play and usually I wont be buying them but yesterday I had to install water filter at home and could not get one which can filter out arsenic and metals along with other. I think if this product is properly marketed it has bright future. I am buying a truck load of HYRF and EYII.

I have decided to start postion at tomorrow open in HYRF [3.5x], EYII [2.5x], VLO[1.2x], CHK [1.2x], KCS [1.8x], UPL[1.2x], HAL[1.2x], GLD[1.2x], EWJ[1.2x] and EWC[1.2x].

Hope the above all add up to 15x. Let me count, seems like have to drop one, but may adjust to buy all. Goodluck all.

[ScottishTrader]

Stocky,

Nice sentiments and glad to see you couldn't stay out for long.  Just wanted to drop some suggestions by your way and see what you make of them.  All seem to be set up for big plays for tomorrow:

1. DESC - AE sector - broke resistance on ascending triangle and is ready to rip

2. MCEL - another AE - up big today on huge volume.  May consolidate tomorrow, but hopefully will push through

3. HEC - Oil production - consistently moving up over last 3-4 days, including solid rise today on big volume above short term resistance

4. OMNI - Oil services - 3 big rises with small pullbacks each time over last 5 days.  Today was particularly big and broke some longer term resistance.

5. AAPL - and on the off-chance as I saw you were interested, pulled back substantially today on faulty iPod news, and had a downgrade this evening too.  I reckon it could drop some more and could get a buy around the ascending trendline, which as I see it is just below $50, providing it doesn't brake this.

I've posted analyses on all of these (except AAPL) today on the 3SOF boards.  Have a look and see what you think, and let me know

as always, happy trading 

the Scotsman

[stocky]

29 Sept, 2005

Hi scottishtrader, I am bullish on oil. The news talk that everything is ok after RITA may have given some ppl a chance to pick oil stocks cheaper and I think the sector may still have some profits left. Your all oil picks seems good. I am big fan of AAPL and I think its a great long term holding. But wont buying right now. Though I think the biggest future winner in tech may be, GOOG. And I would be watching it carefully. I think MCEL is fav of momos so not playing it at the moment. Would like to stick with known and profitable names in oil and gas. In alternate energy area DESC is good play but if you want something less risky then ENER is the bet.

Ok I have decided to go ahead with my yesterday plan but wont be buying EWC for a while. It has about 25% oil exposure and I am already 45% in oil. But it seems to be one of the best ETFs around. May buy it later.

Oil patch is rocking but the penny bet has sunk portfolio for a while. Anyway I will be patient with them. Too tired to write more.

Goodluck all.