PFSW

[berloga]

Today's candle is shaping up to become a 3rd white soldier. If that's the case, the stock may gap up tomorrow and then sell off the top. I am going to put a trailing stop of 5% tomorrow around the open to capture the gain.

I've been up these peaks so many times now that feel it's better to collect a good profit, especially after an explosive run, and then re-enter on a dip with the same number of shares.

Just need to catch it at the dip.

[sfhappyfish88]

This is not the right place for me to ask this question, but it would be faster to get an answer. I forgot the website of Video Portfolio, any help please?

Thanks a lot.

[berloga]

http://www.stocksonvideo.com/

[Ramsburg]

Chart Update:
An awesome session for PFSW
This breakout has brought attentions (and money) into this stock, volume is getting higher everyday, and so the momentum. PFSW is already above the $1.23 resistance (now a support), its near the $1.44 relative high and closed 1 tick above the projection of the broken trading range.
Berloga may be right about the «three white soldiers» candlestick pattern, but so far the stock had closed the last 2 session below the intraday highs, and that makes more difficult to perform a gap up, and makes the move a bit more sustainable in technical terms.
Despite the short term expected volatility, and according to David’s fundamental model, this is still one of the most attractive stocks held in our Portfolio, even after this huge short term move.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold PFSW

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Chart update:
PFSW had no chance to continue its rally with such pessimism in the general market. Even so, it manage to perform an inside candle, closing above the nearest support.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold PFSW

Regards,

[tokyopua]

Chart update:
PFSW had no chance to continue its rally with such pessimism in the general market. Even so, it manage to perform an inside candle, closing above the nearest support.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold PFSW

Regards,

Wasnt a great candle but it probably does allow for the continuation of the rally compared to if it would have gapped up and made a dark cloud cover, etc.

[Ramsburg]

Wasnt a great candle but it probably does allow for the continuation of the rally compared to if it would have gapped up and made a dark cloud cover, etc.

I agree tokyopua, this kind of moves always need to consolidate

Chart update:
A nice candle for PFSW with the $1.23 support working so far. The stock is now consolidating these level before attempting to run into new relative highs.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold PFSW

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

Chart update:
PFSW is on fire, still inside the consolidation range, but showing a lot of determination to break into new relative highs...
The stock reacted two times at 1.37 so this is now the short term resistance (followed by 1.44), for downside I'm still considering the 1.23 region as the first support. Momentum may have a bigger boost if the stock manage to breakouts 1.37 today, as a quick consolidation area like this is usually a sign of speed.
Taking in consideration David's fundamental approach for this stock (the second with best appreciation potential), anything it's possible and it would be a great present for him to get back from vacations and watch PFSW above $1.44 (the last relative high)

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold PFSW

Regards,

[Ramsburg]

PFSW is now above the last relative high

[Ramsburg]

PFSW is now above the last relative high ($1.44), and even with the recent gains and according to our Fundamental Model, its one of the positions inside our Main Portfolio with bigger potential

[Garoh]

It could be a good chance for those who didn't buy the stock to get it from $1.05 to $1.08 ...

This will be next week ... target will be $1.80 to $1.90  this is almost 90% 

David What do you think about ETLT ?? I bought it at $0.62  this one will double for sure ..
What about the fundementals are they still good ?

This is my target from $1.80 to $1.90   

[tokyopua]

David's fundamental approach for this stock (the second with best appreciation potential), anything it's possible and it would be a great present for him to get back from vacations and watch PFSW above $1.44 (the last relative high)

Cheers to David, this was a great pick and just took some time to develop.  Hope he is somewhere recharging those amazing stock picking brain cells and totally relaxing and enjoying his time with his family!

[berloga]

One one hand I feel PFSW has a lot more gas to go and hit $2 target sometime in the near future. On the other hand, I feel paranoid again about losing the gain. I know David is bave and does not use stops anymore, but I just feel it could be a good idea to protect some of the gains somehow. All I can think of is to introduce trailing stops after a 2-4 day runs up.

Today is the 3rd day up and if the stock gaps on Tuesday, it may once again sell off for a pick up at lower support levels. Anybody has any better ideas/thoughts?

Thanks.

[soxguy]

If you listen to Cramer,he says absolutely sell some on the way up. Don't be a hog. What ever makes you comfortable.

[David Randolph]

Cheers to David, this was a great pick and just took some time to develop.  Hope he is somewhere recharging those amazing stock picking brain cells and totally relaxing and enjoying his time with his family!

Thanks Tokyo, I still need to learn a lot about stock picking. Yep, in fact, the past week was probably one of the best in my life, I almost had forgotten how good it feels to take a break from work.

PFSW is now up 45% from my buying price, without any additional news, and berloga is nervous about the possibility of losing the profit back to the market. soxguy says Cramer advises to sell some on the way up, which for me is like not saying anything at all, or not knowing what he's doing. Selling the winners is probably a good explanation why Cramer's Portfolio at thestreet.com has underperformed the S&P 500 since inception.

There's a lot of literature about this issue, I guess the best two being Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Jesse Livermore experience) and One Up on Wall Street (by Peter Lynch).

My own experience (which is quite small in comparison) tells me most of the times it is better to take the profit. However, to achieve a superior performance, it is better to keep the winner. Did you get this?

In the majority of the times one will probably lose his profit back to the market. But the minority that keeps rising will rise so much that will more than compensate the majority of stocks that fall back down.

The conclusion is: keeping the winners, letting the profits run, is the proper attitude.

As for taking the profit for buying back on a dip ... let's just say that causes a lot of anxiety and less profits over the long run. It also makes a man think about things he shouldn't think, like short term technical indicators and stuff like that, which simply don't work.

Just my view here.

Fundamentally PFSW is now a $67.5 M market cap company with projected 2007 revenues of $427.5 M, so the price to sales ratio is one of the lowest in the market, at just 0.156. This happens because the net profit margin is very slim, even though it improved over the past quarter.

eCost.com revenues grew 20% sequentially, in a seasonally weak period.

Say PFSW's revenue will grow 20% in 2008, to $513 M and the company achieves my long term estimate of a 3% net profit margin. That would mean 2008 net income of $15.4 M. Now apply the Business Services industry average valuation of 25.35 times earnings and get to a $390 M market cap in 2008, that is, about $8.38 per share.

The upside potential is this huge, the downside ... well, the stock may come back down to around $1.

I'll keep holding PFSW for the long term.