NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[kpunarc]

Also, try the Technical Analysis MB. They got topics on there related to help you with TA. Try asking all the questions you like on there. It's relatively new, but should help. Good Luck

[LiveLife]

Thanks bestxcskier for the post from Yahoo MB:

Mutual funds begin their new fiscal year on November 1st.

That is when all of the new 401K and pension money begins to flow into the market. That is also why the market has a bull run, from November to March, consistantly.

Where do you think a lot of funds are going to be placing some of those $ billions?

That is right. NVAX A good place to be.

[LiveLife]

Thanks retvet24 for the post from Yahoo MB:

Hardly thinking of getting out!! The people that "lose" in situations like this are the "late ride" buyers and Panic sellers. Too late in the game, then too quick to pull the plug...they need to do a 180 with their thinking.

[LiveLife]

Thanks brandyjoco for the post from Yahoo MB:

I think NVAX is down because many of us (me included) jumped in because of the momentum without truly doing our homework. Now that many of us are holding and looking into the company's potential it is very eyeopening. If you go to Yahoo and search for 'Novavax' there are dozens of news articles about past grants from NIH and achievements. Their success is long overdue...


Post by mojobenard:

A little research into the company..
They are already recieving funding from Government.
They will be receiving some of the funding for H5N1 - Book it

Government Funded
HIV/aids VLP vaccine
Stage Non-Human Primate

Pandemic flu VLP vaccine
E-selectin to prevent secondary stroke
Stage Small Animal

Melanoma Vaccine
Stage Phase 1

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Stage Discovery


Partnered or Internally Funded

Trivalent flu VLP vaccine
Stage Discovery

Hepatitis E Virus Vaccine
Stage Phase 3


brandyjoco's response:

Yes, I agree that they will definately get some NIH funding because they already have the relationships established from previous grants. The VLP research was essentially paid for by millions of dollars in NIH research grants and is an asset that I believe will be continued to be supported.

This is probably why the bondholders were willing to take shares at almost $6 a share as they already know there will be additional funding.

[LiveLife]

Thanks retvet24 for the post from Yahoo MB:

In the "short against the box" scenario, the bondholder has three options, four if you count holding the bond, which this obviously is not about.

1) hold the shares expecting appreciation to exceed bond income.

2) sell the converted shares immediately, assuming they are above bond value.

3) sell into profit taking to begin a run and correction, or to aid it while shorting shares they HAVE NOT converted yet, knowing they have more bonds to cover the call.

They draw the interest on the "shorted" bonds WHILE the stock tanks and cover only after the SEC gets excited (SHO list-these are true "naked" shorts)AND make a killing on the short sale at the same time....

Then they convert more bonds to shares to cover, the stock eventually comes off the SHO list, and they are ready to REPEAT the process.

Did this scenario happen last week? We will never know. I only know it works in theory, and probably in practice (legal or not) but I have now seen the exact same game twice in two different stocks...

Remember that next time NVAX shows up on the list accompanied by a convertible bond transfer...


Counter-argument from gunboat1919:

An entity invested in bonds paying an interest rate of I believe %4.75. The holders chose to convert the bonds into stock. This convert is good for the cash situation because it eliminates an interest payment of $285,000.

6 Million dollars in bonds was converted in to 1,056,338 shares of NVAX.

IMO how they arrived @5.68 is irrelevant to me.

Imagine you are the bond holder with 6 million at risk earning %4.75 annually. You convert your investment into stock. What do you do, why did you convert? Do sell all or some?

IMO if more bond holders convert this will dilute and force the price downward.

Again, collars are now in place affecting the price per share IMO.

If my math is correct there were 42,493,662 shares outstanding. After the convert there are now 43,550,000 shares out standing. Meaning your share is 2.48% less of the pie than it was prior to the convert.

Good luck.


Counter-argument from duker217:

I don't buy the dilution argument. A little over one million shares at 5.68 is nothing compared to the MONSTER volume NVAX has been turning lately. Someone made a good point earlier. Perhaps the bond holders simply shorted NVAX at or above the strike and converted to close their position. With interest rates up, the 4.75% isn't as good today as it was last year. It was an easy out and I think these bondholders took it. I believe this benefits NVAX tremendously. Less interest expense, lower nut to pay when the remaining bonds mature and all this for 1 million more shares in the float??? I'll take that any day. The selloff last week was not unusual. Let's not forget this is a highly specultive situation. That's what makes it so compelling howerer. If it's going to go ... it's going to go big!!! Or to say it another way the risk reward in owning NVAX is probably 5 : 1 or more. Find me that somewhere else in this bulls**t market. I'm long and content. I believe good things are going to happen soon. It won't take much.

[LiveLife]

Thanks brandyjoco for the post from Yahoo MB:

Novavax is presenting at the World Vaccine Congress in Washingtion 20-23 March 2006:

17.50 Case study: potential pandemic flu vaccine Virus-Like-Particle (VLP)
• A new vaccine platform to address the urgent need for pandemic flu vaccine
• Results of pre-clinical studies with an influenza avian (pandemic) H9N2 candidate VLP vaccine
• Novasomes® – a safe, patented adjuvant to help address the need for antigen sparing
• Rapid, disposable, scalable manufacturing process to meet vaccine needs for pandemic flu
Dr Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, Novavax, Inc

On a separate note, just thought you might want to know:
Novavax has a long history with receiving federal NIH grants. They had received $19 million in 2000 to create a vaccine for HIV Aids. Unfortunately it was canceled later after much research on VLP vaccines was completed (and paid for by a portion of the grant) . They continue work on HIV under a separate smaller grant. They have also received money to study SARS, and their VLP vaccine was presented to Homeland Security so that if U.S. needs to be innoculated for a Small Pox terrorist threat - the VLP vaccine is safer otherwise thousands could die because of the current active smallpox vaccines. They also work on vaccines for Hep E which is very common in Africa and India. Do a search for 'Novavax' on yahoo and you will be surprised at ALL the results of studies and grants.

[LiveLife]

Thanks whpkc for the post from Yahoo MB:

NVAX:
RSI divergences
Above 20% Below 70% 40.36% Rising
So far three peaks and counting on this
rising trend.
.........................................
Aroon & Aroon Oscillator:
Aroon Oscillator signal upward trend is underway when it is above zero
NVAX: 92Up 16Down
...........................
NVAX: ZigZag retracements look good.
IMHO
Anyone else see anything?
-KCBP

[LiveLife]

Here is a great assessment of the current frenzy of Avian plays.  Thanks hoang2004hon for the link!

As the bold highlighted paragraphs indicates and cautions, I am "speculating" in NVAX short-term.  If this sense of "speculation" causes NVAX stock price to go up, I will ride the gain and cash out.  I am in NVAX to trade, not buy-and-hope.

http://www.antandsons.com/traderscorner/birdflustocks/

"... Because of the strain's ability to be resistant, it is extremely tough to develop a viable vaccine.

Evaluating the current situation as of late shows that there is documented evidence of being insufficiently prepared for an avian flu outbreak. This is due in part to the United States' inability to mobilize an effort stockpile and develop vaccines more quickly. As this has become a viable threat, politicians and even President Bush have gotten into the act by stating their desires to initiate an effort to stockpile and develop vaccines just in case the country's fears are met. With an increased public awareness of avian flu, as well as increased media visibility, this has posed as an opportunity for many publicly traded companies to jump on the promotion bandwagon.

For example, smaller, lesser known companies such as Acacia Research Corporation (Nasdaq: ACTG) and CombiMatrix (Nasdaq: CBMX) have come into the foray by launching a new comprehensive influenza DNA microarray as well as services for the typing of influenza strains. CombiMatrix's Influenza Microarray can detect and accurately type flu strains using a protocol that requires less than four hours start to finish. While this may demonstrate potential, the marketability and actual generation of revenue remains to be seen at this point.

Another instance of this is Generex Biotechnology Corporation (Nasdaq: GNBT), that partnered with the executives of Antigen Express, Inc. to present a proposal to senators to seek support for the accelerated development of its novel vaccine for H5N1 avian influenza. As of right now, there is no indication whatsoever to really determine if the meting would benefit the company in anyway. The company that seems to be leading this group of avian flu plays, however, is Novavax Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX). Its shares have moved higher based on an agreement with Wave Biotech, LLC to collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic avian flu vaccine.

Although the World Health Organization believes that current avian flu situation is in phase three of classifying it as a pandemic, there has been limited evidence of continued human-to-human transmission. When taking this into account, it is careful to note that even if these special products and vaccines for flu do prove to be successful, it might not necessarily translate into major revenue generators for these companies to become viable entities. Just as an increase in demand and worries about global refining capacity drew heightened speculation in the oil market, increased fears and attention of avian flu has drawn intense speculation in certain biotechnology stocks. Coming to this realization will help investors determine that these companies may just turn out to be another investment of a highly speculative nature."

[LiveLife]

The above article intrigued me.  I thought about the "speculative" aspects of the Avian plays and decided to a "little" test.  I pulled the Lycos-Iwatch charts for the above mentioned stock symbols and came up with the following charts below.

Of the mentioned stock symbols in the article, NVAX showed the largest Institutional/money manager buy activity.

Why would Institutional/Money Managers sell the other Avian stocks if they anticipate gain potential of the stocks from the Avian flu???

And why did they buy NVAX at $2, $3, $4, $5 and down to $4, $3, $3.50???

[LiveLife]

What I found with last post's "experiment" was very interesting, so I did more Lyco I-watch charting with stocks mentioned in recent news below.

Once again, NVAX showed the strongest Inst/M. Manager buy activity.  Why?

[LiveLife]

Very interesting!  So I did more with some stocks in my 20-40 lists.  What I found was even more interesting.

Why are Institutional/Money Managers buying/accumulating NVAX in such numbers?

I wonder.  Perhaps, coming days/weeks/months will tell us.

[LiveLife]

= THIS IS VERY INTERESTING!!! = 

With much issues about Institutional/Money Managers buy activity in question, I did some Lycos I-watch comparison charts and found some very interesting results:  (7th, 8th, 9th and 10th  posts from top)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29171#msg29171

[LiveLife]

Well, I've been thinking some more and decided to pull some more comparison charts:

[LiveLife]

Thanks eranbob for the post from Yahoo MB!

In the absence of external stimuli, that could well be true. However, charts go out the window when news is pending. The anticipation of the Bush speech on the 'plan' will trump any predictions from TA.

David Randolph said this lastweek about NVAX, "Forget trading based on a trendline. Price completely got way from past levels, and if we waited for a trendline break to sell, a big chunk of profits would be lost."

[LiveLife]

Thanks go big or go home1 for the post from Yahoo MB:

Here's the excellent slide show visual presentation we couldn't see of Wednesday, October 19th Bio Investor Forum 2005.  Very nice graphics!!!

http://technologyinvestor.com/images/NovavaxInvestorForum.pdf