NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[LiveLife]

It appears, it is now race against time for the vaccine companies to develop and market effective Avian vaccines for birds and humans.  And as the virus mutates, the companies need to develop new vaccines to match the mutations!

As David Randolph (Founder of 3StocksOnFire) mentioned before, Novavax will be a winner regardless due to their strong "non-Avian developments" and being in the same Avian sector as other strong Avian plays. 

Novavax's recent Institutional/money manager/insider buying activity and volume records are mainly due to their exisitng Estrasorb (nano-particle technology transdermal estrogen therapy which already has FDA approval and clinical effectiveness) product line and in anticipation of 2 new products to be released within 2 weeks.

The $12.5 million partnership agreement further strengthens Novavax and a significant milestone of breaking through the 200 day Moving Average by 50 day MA coincided with an analyst upgrade.  These are all great news for Novavax and will further increase the demand for the shares of NVAX in the days/weeks to come.  I believe more analyst upgrades will follow in light of recent developments and perfomance of Novavax, certainly with the 2 new product line launch.

As the new CEO (since July 2005) mentioned in last Wednesday's conference call and the presentation at the 2005 Bio Investor Forum in San Francisco (transcript highlights and conference call links located in previous posts), the new management team is committed in steering Novavax in the right direction.  Additional funding for Avian R&D division (cash from $12.5 million partnership?  ) will expedite Novavax's ability to complete the development and marketing of effective Avian vaccines (bird and human).  I learned this weekend how much more there is to Novavax and their history (past and current "specialized" contractor for NIH for developing "bird" Avian vaccine and officers/personnel who have been key US government agency (civil/military) officers who are now working for Novavax and coordinating the response to the Avian threat.     Thanks stock_driver for all of your "numerous informative" posts at Yahoo MB!

Novavax as a company is solid just for their product lines, patents, FDA approvals and pending developments; but when you add the Avian vaccine development, it just enhances the strength of this stock.

Next week certainly looks to be exciting for NVAX.

As a caution (as always) look for profit taking after Friday/week's gain.  Approach to 52 week high of $4.10 will bring some nervousness for some holders, but my guess is that we'll break through the 52 week high rather easily.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

It appears, it is now race against time for the vaccine companies to develop and market effective Avian vaccines for birds and humans.  And as the virus mutates, the companies need to develop new vaccines to match the mutations!

As David Randolph (Founder of 3StocksOnFire) mentioned before, Novavax will be a winner regardless due to their strong "non-Avian developments" and being in the same Avian sector as other strong Avian plays. 

Novavax's recent Institutional/money manager/insider buying activity and volume records are mainly due to their exisitng Estrasorb (nano-particle technology transdermal estrogen therapy which already has FDA approval and clinical effectiveness) product line and in anticipation of 2 new products to be released within 2 weeks.

The $12.5 million partnership agreement further strengthens Novavax and a significant milestone of breaking through the 200 day Moving Average by 50 day MA coincided with an analyst upgrade.  These are all great news for Novavax and will further increase the demand for the shares of NVAX in the days/weeks to come.  I believe more analyst upgrades will follow in light of recent developments and perfomance of Novavax, certainly with the 2 new product line launch.

As the new CEO (since July 2005) mentioned in last Wednesday's conference call and the presentation at the 2005 Bio Investor Forum in San Francisco (transcript highlights and conference call links located in previous posts), the new management team is committed in steering Novavax in the right direction.  Additional funding for Avian R&D division (cash from $12.5 million partnership?  ) will expedite Novavax's ability to complete the development and marketing of effective Avian vaccines (bird and human).  I learned this weekend how much more there is to Novavax and their history (past and current "specialized" contractor for NIH for developing "bird" Avian vaccine and officers/personnel who have been key US government agency (civil/military) officers who are now working for Novavax and coordinating the response to the Avian threat.     Thanks stock_driver for all of your "numerous informative" posts at Yahoo MB!

Novavax as a company is solid just for their product lines, patents, FDA approvals and pending developments; but when you add the Avian vaccine development, it just enhances the strength of this stock.

Next week certainly looks to be exciting for NVAX.

As a caution (as always) look for profit taking after Friday/week's gain.  Approach to 52 week high of $4.10 will bring some nervousness for some holders, but my guess is that we'll break through the 52 week high rather easily.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Another Novavax Conference Call scheduled for November 7th!   

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=71178&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=1147087

Novavax at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference
Monday, November 7, 2005 1:00 p.m. ET 

[LiveLife]

Another Novavax Conference Call scheduled for November 7th!

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=71178&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=1147087

Novavax at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference
Monday, November 7, 2005 1:00 p.m. ET

[LiveLife]

Great Britain's parrot case confirmed to be Avian H5N1 virus!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-23-britainbirdflu_x.htm

[LiveLife]

Great Britain's parrot case confirmed to be Avian H5N1 virus!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-23-britainbirdflu_x.htm


Posted 10/23/2005 3:14 PM
Updated 10/23/2005 4:12 PM
   
Great Britain uncovers case of deadly bird flu in parrot
LONDON (AP) — The British government said Sunday that a strain of bird flu that killed a parrot in quarantine is the deadly H5N1 strain that has plagued Asia and recently spread to Europe and Turkey.

Scientists determined that the parrot, imported from South America, died of the strain of avian flu that has devastated poultry stocks and killed 61 people in Asia the past two years, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

The virus is spread by migrating wild birds and has recently been found in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania, spurring efforts around the globe to contain its spread.

While H5N1 is easily transmitted between birds, it is hard for humans to contract. But experts fear it could mutate into a form of flu that is easily transmitted between humans and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.

Debby Reynolds, DEFRA's chief veterinarian, said the parrot was likely infected with the virus while it was housed in the country's quarantine system with birds from Taiwan. Tests conducted on the Taiwanese birds that had died were inconclusive, according to the department.

DEFRA said the virus was most closely matched to a strain found in ducks in China earlier this year but was not very similar to strains discovered in Romania and Turkey. The genetic makeup of the virus changes slightly as it spreads, and scientists use such tests to track its migration across the world.

It was Britain's first confirmed case of bird flu since 1992.

Elsewhere, the Croatian government on Sunday promised to compensate villagers and farmers whose birds were slaughtered to prevent the spread of bird flu. About 10,000 domestic birds have been killed in an area near a national park where six swans were found to have been infected with the virus.

Damage from the culling was estimated at about $160,000. However, international bans on Croatian poultry exports could hurt farmers more. The European Commission on Friday said it was preparing a ban on all poultry imports from the country, while some individual European nations have already done so.

Medical experts detected the H5 virus in the swans Friday. Samples from the contaminated birds were then sent to a laboratory in Britain to establish whether they had the deadly H5N1 strain. Tests were also being done on samples from five other swans found dead Saturday morning near the park.

In related developments Sunday:

• Sweden said four ducks found dead in an area west of Stockholm Friday were infected with bird flu, but not the deadly H5N1 strain.

• Montenegro began testing its poultry for bird flu as a precaution after the disease was confirmed in neighboring Croatia. Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina also ordered cars to be disinfected at the Croatian border, and banned poultry imports from the country.

• The European Union said its bird flu experts will discuss a possible ban on imports of wild birds into the 25-nation bloc on Tuesday. The EU has so far resisted calls to ban all pet bird imports, fearing it could create a black market that could increase the threat of infected birds being smuggled in.

• Jordan and Israel agreed to limited cooperation to combat the possible spread of bird flu by monitoring people traveling across their shared border, the official Petra news agency reported. Neither country has had any cases of the virus.

• North Korea has launched a nationwide campaign to prevent a fresh outbreak of bird flu, strengthening quarantine and reporting systems and enhancing education of poultry farmers, a media report said. Earlier this year, North Korea culled about 210,000 chickens and other poultry after acknowledging its first bird flu outbreak in March. No new cases have since been reported.

[LiveLife]

More media coverage of the UK confirmed parrot Avian H5N1 case:

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1242357

Source of origin of the UK parrot from South America!

[LiveLife]

Now comes the media coverage of the UK confirmed parrot Avian H5N1 case:

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1242357


Source of origin of the UK parrot from South America!

[LiveLife]

What will this do to Roche?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4366514.stm

Last Updated: Saturday, 22 October 2005, 12:05 GMT 13:05 UK

Taiwan to ignore flu drug patent
Copy of Tamiflu produced in Taiwan
Taiwan says its copy of Tamiflu is cheaper and quicker to produce
Taiwan has responded to bird flu fears by starting work on its own version of the anti-viral drug, Tamiflu, without waiting for the manufacturer's consent.

More on link.

[LiveLife]

What will this do to Roche?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4366514.stm

Last Updated: Saturday, 22 October 2005, 12:05 GMT 13:05 UK
Taiwan to ignore flu drug patent
Copy of Tamiflu produced in Taiwan
Taiwan says its copy of Tamiflu is cheaper and quicker to produce
Taiwan has responded to bird flu fears by starting work on its own version of the anti-viral drug, Tamiflu, without waiting for the manufacturer's consent.

Taiwan officials said they had applied for the right to copy the drug - but the priority was to protect the public.

Tamiflu, made by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche, cannot cure bird-flu but is widely seen as the best anti-viral drug to fight it, correspondents say.

Bird flu has killed at least 60 people in Asia since December 2003.

Scientists fear the lethal H5N1 strain of the virus could combine with human flu or mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans, triggering a flu pandemic.

Several countries have asked Roche for the right to make generic copies of Tamiflu.

'Cheaper, faster production'

Taiwan will produce six kg of its version of Tamiflu - enough, according to the government, to renew its stocks.

The government has said it will not market the drug commercially.

Q&A: Avian flu

Production of the drug on a small scale has already started.

A top health official said Taiwan had demonstrated its goodwill to Roche in talks - and the country hoped it would eventually secure permission to copy the drug.

"We have tried our best to negotiate with Roche," Su Ih-jen told Reuters news agency.

"It means we have shown our goodwill to Roche and we appreciate their patent. But to protect our people is the utmost important thing," he said.

A generic version of the drug produced by the island's National Health Institute is said to be 99% akin to the Tamiflu produced by Roche.

Officials say they can make their version of the drug more quickly - and at a lower cost - than Roche does.

Although Taiwan has not had a serious outbreak, the virus has killed thousands of poultry - and scores of people who came into contact with the birds - in nearby countries.

It has also now spread to Europe, with the latest possible case reported in an imported parrot in the UK.

[LiveLife]

Fresh bird flu outbreak in China

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4356392.stm
   
Last Updated: Wednesday, 19 October 2005, 11:13 GMT 12:13 UK

China has announced a fresh outbreak of bird flu, saying 2,600 birds have died from the disease in Inner Mongolia.

[LiveLife]

Fresh bird flu outbreak in China

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4356392.stm
   
Last Updated: Wednesday, 19 October 2005, 11:13 GMT 12:13 UK

China has announced a fresh outbreak of bird flu, saying 2,600 birds have died from the disease in Inner Mongolia.

The deaths, at a farm near the region's capital of Hohhot, were due to the H5N1 strain, which is potentially lethal to humans, the Xinhua news agency said.

China has previously suffered outbreaks of bird flu in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet, all this year. Thousands of affected fowl have been slaughtered.

Bird flu has killed at least 60 people in Asia since December 2003.

Xinhua said the latest outbreak, in Tengjiaying village near Hohhot, was now under control, though it did not say when it had taken place.

   
H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS
Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997
Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds
Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed

Q&A: Avian flu

China's national bird flu laboratory confirmed it was the H5N1 strain, Xinhua said.

No human victims were mentioned in the report - China's bird flu outbreaks have so far only affected its fowl.

Its most recent previous confirmed case was near the Tibetan capital of Lhasa in August, in which 133 birds died and another 2,475 were slaughtered.

A local official told the AFP news agency that the latest outbreak had been detected at a small farm with fewer than 10,000 birds, mainly chickens, geese and peacocks.

News of the outbreak comes as European officials deal with outbreaks in Romania and Turkey.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Agency has also warned of a risk the disease will now reach the Middle East and Africa as a result of the European outbreaks.

Scientists fear the H5N1 strain could combine with human flu or mutate into a form that it easily transmissible between humans, triggering a flu pandemic.

[David Randolph]

Hello LiveLife, NVAX needs to at least double from here to compensate for your work 

You're on top of Bird Flu info, thanks for sharing !

I don't know if this is media's hysteria or not, but it makes me concerned. I sure hope nothing happens and the disease is contained among birds.

NVAX still is a small cap so the potential for speculation is huge. Unlike big pharma stocks, where revenues from a bird flu vaccine may be not so relevant, with NVAX it would have a big impact in revenues and profits. That's why I believe the only way to play this is through small caps.

Technically, as LiveLife says, volume has been many times above average and price is enjoying a powerful bullish trend. Thinking of an upside target, and since we're speculating here and there are no limits to speculation, what about that gap left open, at $10.56?

(you can see it on the chart below)

I can set up an easy way of not losing money trading NVAX, protecting my profits as they grow and try selling at a logic high if a parabolic rise occurs (my ascending trendline method loses a big part of the profit in the event of a parabolic rise).

So, my trading plan for NVAX is:

1) Sell at $10.56, when a gap on the long term chart will finally be closed.
2) Sell if the stock closes below TL2, which for tomorrow will be standing at $2.66, rising $0.07 per trading day.

[LiveLife]

David Randolph raised his target of NVAX to $10.56!!! 

Hello LiveLife, NVAX needs to at least double from here to compensate for your work 

You're on top of Bird Flu info, thanks for sharing !

Technically, as LiveLife says, volume has been many times above average and price is enjoying a powerful bullish trend.

David's full technical analysis and charts can be located in the premium NVAX board.

[LiveLife]

Thanks David! = applaud =

What a surprise on the target of $10.56!  WOW!

NVAX, here we go!  But do watch for profit taking on Monday's open.