NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[LiveLife]

Thanks Julia! 

I am finding that most traders took profit early and stayed out of today's selloff!  Great!

Good trading!

Here's GNBT link:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=744.new#new

[dez]

For tomorrow, look for NVAX to open at todays closing price ( 4.01 ).  I expect it to close only slightly lower at the 10 dma for support.  But between the open and the close there should be a swing trade possible up to 4.38.

You can view a similar hard sell-off pattern in this stock during the last two days of August. 

Level two had consistent buy support at the 4 dollar area right into the close and during the after hour trade.

The release of any positive news from the company, or external  bird flu ( government or corporate news driven events ) would alter the projected trading pattern.  In which case we would be off to the races again.  So if we break 4.38 with volume on news ( which would be confirmed by rising prices in HEB and GNBT also ) it would then be wise to hold your shares.

[Lucas Scott]

Still holding my NVAX paper-short and expecting a climax selloff in the morning and then a bounce. I left an hour before market close today - all the red in my port was hurting my eyes! My shorts (real, not paper) did well today, but most of my long positions seem to have caught that nasty bird flu

[rickjust]

hi,
just a little quote i read after today's action
nice quote from sir john templeton
"bull markets are born on skepticisim, mature on optimisim, and die on euphoria."
happy trading everyone
maxi

[brucey]

looks like just a pullback after a hug gain.
When everybody buying the same stock,probablly you gotta quit...is that still right?
$5.88/50M volume/much much more posts than any subject here /and everybody loaded witm NVAX...is it time to pullback a little bit?

[LiveLife]

Keep in mind that we have experienced a bearish market trend since July (see Bear chart below).  During this time, Avian related plays and sector enjoyed a very nice gains in recent weeks.

I stated on previous posts the following:

"After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off."

I believe what happened today was more of the same, but instead of a sectorwide selling, there was a broad marketwide selling.

I believe NVAX and other Avian plays will rebound, as before, but for this "swing trader" who took a break on NVAX to become a "temporary" long, today forced me to return back to my stock trading basics and review my stock list.

What my wife pointed out after reviewing my trade log was that, while I was "long" this past week, I let over $20,000 worth of swing trades by.  Not taking profit after a significant gain goes against my own trading basics and I realized that I am a trader, not an investor.

I'll continue reviewing my list of 20-40 stocks and also "refresh" my "swing" trading principles.  I started by trading seriously in July, the start of  historically the bearish time of the year, and painfully learned my lessons how hard it is to gain in a "bearish" market trends.  I must take the reality of current bearish market condition and trade "defensively" with even tighter buy/sell criteria and ranges.

I previously posted in Yahoo NVAX MB that "any hiccup, there will be marketwide selloff," and it happened today.

Will the market/sector recover?  Time will tell.

Will NVAX recover, I believe so, mainly because not only did the Institutional/money managers not sell, but there was more accumulation activity all day long, again.  This was a bright news after what happened today.  See Lycos I-watch charts and "LARGE" Institutional/money manager percentage.

Will other Avian stocks recover?  Probably, because of the ongoing Avian fear and increasing media coverage.

What next?  That depends on the individual trader.

If you are a day trader, there may be nice trading opportunities for days to come.  If you are a swing trader, more caution must be exercised during this still "bearish" market, even more so after today.  If you are long, the market/sector and NVAX will rebound and resume the climb up.

Good trading!

[David Randolph]

Oh, what a shame, this was a "tradable" decline, wasn't it? I just left an 100% plus profit turn into "just" 50%.

But, you know, I'm not that worried on NVAX. I see strong support at the $3.70-$3.85 area.

I agree with the hypertrader, Lucas (nice name) Scott, when he says the stock will have a sell climax today to this area and then rebound strongly.

I'm really no Elliot Wave expert, but I know a few things ... their theories apply much better to  "emotion driven" stocks like NVAX, and basically the theory says that an advance phase naturally has 3 rises and 2 falls. We've had wave 1, 2 and 3 and the current wave is the 4th. We still need the last rise, the 5th wave, to new highs to complete the pattern.

What I see is NVAX clawing back up to the highs, breaking them on the upside but now with lower volume ... that will be a bearish divergence that I'll use to sell, probably between $7 and $8.

But, I might be wrong and this thing falls of a cliff. I don't think so, usually stocks give a second chance to sell near the highs (there was no top pattern, and there should be one for the recent high to be the top).

I'm expecting NVAX to quickly come back up. I don't want to see it closing below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this last leg up ($3.70), or I'll take my profits and move on.

[[D] Investor]

The large drop in price over the last two days were expected. From a chart perspective, NVAX was simply becoming too parabolic and a shooting star that reached beyond the unfathomable $6 range had formed. Retracement and consolidation is healthy to sustain a bullish stock. As for NVAX, retracement is long-overdue especially after a series of seemingly endless, phenomenal gains recently. Today's drop brought NVAX back down to the 50 DMA on a 6 week chart and filled back all the gains that had occurred since Monday. The drop might have been exacerbated by today's across the market bearish performance (Dow -115.03; -1.1%).

But judging from charts and indicators, NVAX is still bullish. Here's why:

• More buyers than sellers: Correction from the past 2 days had relatively high volume, but nothing compared to the 51 million shares traded on 10/25, the day NVAX shot up 33%.


• High instituational buying: I-Watch reports 25% of volume today were from institutions... and all indicators were heavy buying! This means institutions were largely accumulating all the sold shares today. Assuming this is not a reporting error, this is phenomenal since the monthly average is usually around 1-2%. Rarely do institutions pay much attention on small caps. Institutional buying signals a go for strong buy. Don't fight the flow!



• Uptrend still intact: No breach in the latest uptrend line following the 50 DMA. See technical analysis on the NVAX chart.

My Prediction for Friday and next week:

• Best case scenario: NVAX shows strong support at the 50 DMA and closes above $4 and the 50 DMA. "Pennant" formation over the next week(s) sets up for another run up.


• "Worse" case scanario: Correction continues and NVAX drops down to $3, showing support at the previous uptrend line. This however should be the furthest south NVAX will go. "Ascending triangle" formation later leads to another run up.


• In either case, instituational accumulation and uptrend should continue.

Bottom Line: There is no reason why investors doing their DD should worry about NVAX breaking out of its uptrend and become a failed stock. High volume consisting of institutional accumulation and heavy buying even on down days are just a few of the many indicators for a bullish stock.

More posts at http://www.dinvestor.com. Leave comments to tell me what you think!

[la-onda]

nice posting (D) Investor, applaud

cheers
O.

[la-onda]

(D) Investor has posted the following analysis:

The large drop in price over the last two days were expected. From a chart perspective, NVAX was simply becoming too parabolic and a shooting star that reached beyond the unfathomable $6 range had formed. Retracement and consolidation is healthy to sustain a bullish stock. As for NVAX, retracement is long-overdue especially after a series of seemingly endless, phenomenal gains recently. Today's drop brought NVAX back down to the 50 DMA on a 6 week chart and filled back all the gains that had occurred since Monday. The drop might have been exacerbated by today's across the market bearish performance (Dow -115.03; -1.1%).

But judging from charts and indicators, NVAX is still bullish. Here's why:

• More buyers than sellers: Correction from the past 2 days had relatively high volume, but nothing compared to the 51 million shares traded on 10/25, the day NVAX shot up 33%.


• High instituational buying: I-Watch reports 25% of volume today were from institutions... and all indicators were heavy buying! This means institutions were largely accumulating all the sold shares today. Assuming this is not a reporting error, this is phenomenal since the monthly average is usually around 1-2%. Rarely do institutions pay much attention on small caps. Institutional buying signals a go for strong buy. Don't fight the flow!



• Uptrend still intact: No breach in the latest uptrend line following the 50 DMA. See technical analysis on the NVAX chart.

My Prediction for Friday and next week:

• Best case scenario: NVAX shows strong support at the 50 DMA and closes above $4 and the 50 DMA. "Pennant" formation over the next week(s) sets up for another run up.


• "Worse" case scanario: Correction continues and NVAX drops down to $3, showing support at the previous uptrend line. This however should be the furthest south NVAX will go. "Ascending triangle" formation later leads to another run up.


• In either case, instituational accumulation and uptrend should continue.

Bottom Line: There is no reason why investors doing their DD should worry about NVAX breaking out of its uptrend and become a failed stock. High volume consisting of institutional accumulation and heavy buying even on down days are just a few of the many indicators for a bullish stock.

thanks for the update (applaud)

[la-onda]

list of BOND buyers from SEC filling:

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0000950133%2D04%2D002788%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2004%5C07%5C19%5C&CoName=NOVAVAX+INC&FormType=8%2DK&RcvdDate=7%2F19%2F2004&pdf=

SCHEDULE OF BUYERS
                                        

Aggregate Principal, Legal Representative's, Buyer, Address and Facsimile Number         Amount of Notes, Address and Facsimile Number
1.
Smithfield Fiduciary LLC
c/o Highbridge Capital
Management, LLC
9 West 57 th Street, 27 th Floor
New York, New York 10019
Attention: Ari J. Storch
Adam J. Chill
Facsimile: (212) 751-0755
Telephone: (212) 287-4720
Residence: Cayman Islands         
$ 12,000,000              

2.
SF Capital Partners Ltd.
3600 South Lake Drive
St. Francis, Wisconsin 53235
Attention: Brian Davidson
Facsimile: (414) 294-7\4416
Telephone: (414) 294-7016
Residence: British Virgin Islands    
$  5,000,000              

3.                                   
Portside Growth and Opportunity Fund
c/o Ramius Capital Group, L.L.C.
666 Third Avenue,
26 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Jeffrey Smith
Roger Anscher
Facsimile: (212) 845-7999
Telephone: (212) 845-7955
Residence: Cayman Islands
$  5,000,000              

4.                                   
Winchester Global Trust
Company Limited as
Trustee for
Caduceus Capital Trust
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Bermuda         
$  1,500,000              

5.                                    
Caduceus Capital II, L.P.
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Delaware         
$  750,000              

6.
UBS Eucalyptus Fund, L.L.C.
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Delaware
$  1,350,000              

7.                                   
PW Eucalyptus Fund, Ltd.
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Cayman Islands         
$  150,000              

8.                                   
HFR SHC Aggressive Fund
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: Bermuda         
$  250,000              

9.
Finsbury Worldwide Pharmaceutical Trust
c/o OrbiMed Advisors LLC
767 Third Avenue, 30 th Floor
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Andrew Kanarek
Facsimile: (212) 739-6446
Telephone: (212) 739-6406
Residence: United Kingdom         
$  2,000,000              

10.                                   
Deutsche Bank AG London
c/o DB Advisors L.L.C.
280 Park Avenue
New York, New York 10017
Attention: Paul Bigler
Facsimile: (212) 454-0968
Telephone: (212) 454-1221
Residence:         
$ 7,000,000              

Conversion price will be 5.68$ as stated before....

cheers
O.

[SmartWrasse]

Think I'll put one foot back in NVAX

[danman3459]

wtf?

[basonista]

wtf?

Let's see if this is the climactic selloff before the next rocket to the moon....

I'm back in at 3.60

[brandyjoco]

This is getting nasty...