NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[[D] Investor]

Another reason investors of NVAX should have sold today is because it's not good to catch a falling knife and it was falling all day without making any sort of reversal. There needs to be good support with volume before re-entering... unless you want to speculate and gamble. 

[kpunarc]

I feel better now that i know i'm not alone. What do you guys think of the market in general. I thought we were in a rally, however it's volatile trading sideways. I'm looking at the S&P and the graph now looks similar to the sell off in mid-april. Based upon this, you guys think we're at a market bottom and it's getting setup for a huge rally? How's the market going to effect NVAX?

[LiveLife]

10/29/05 - I updated the chart graphics/comments.

Good morning!

Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking.  Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).

With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.

As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days.  With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.

I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.

Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading!   

I swing traded NVAX today.  Sold as it gained towards $4 and bought back on dip at $3.62 (what a long dip!).  As part of the three stocks I narrowed down last night, I bought 5000 shares of HEB this morning and sold this afternoon.  So I guess, I really day traded today.  Once again, I am "all in" with NVAX for Monday.

What I learned also last night from Terlisa (Thanks! - this is what's go great about 3SOF community!) is that there was a duplicate RSI trend above 70 (Red Ovals) of last few days that corresponded with the selloff activity from end of August (Blue Ovals).  After today's close, the trend looks awefully familiar,  and  50 MA is still heading above 200 MA.

Once again,Institutional/money manager buying accumulation continued today.  Although the Lycos I-watch charts don't show, there was a block of shares sold executed early this morning.  As we have discussed in Yahoo MB, we question the true accuracy of the I-watch reporting, so only use the charts as a general guide, not an exact report of true Institutional/money manger activity.

So, I approach Monday with a renewed optimism that this was an inevitable price correcting selloff and NVAX will resume its climb back up.  According to the chart, there may be more downward correction before NVAX gains.

Of course, we'll see what happens next week.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

[14droad]

 dont feel bad. I sold out at 3.5 then watched it go up to 5.5

  Timing is everything and impossible to predict. My biggest fault is chasing stocks as they fall. EDNE is my most recent example. I used to buy the early morning dips then sell at EOD for a profit. Not a lot, but it was a profit. So as it continues to dive, i continue to buy. 
My cost average is 3 while it is sitting at 2.44
  I as you also need to be more disciplined.

[brandyjoco]

Novavax will be presenting for 1 hour at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest:


Event Details

Title Novavax at Rodman & Renshaw Techvest 7th Annual Healthcare Conference
Date and Time Monday, November 7, 2005 1:00 p.m. ET   
Duration 1 Hour 
Speakers Dr. Rahul Singhvi, PhD, President and CEO

Location The Palace Hotel
455 Madison Avenue
New York, NY

[LiveLife]

Hi 

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29031#msg29031

[LiveLife]

NVAX still remains the week and month volume leader with the highest "Institutional ownership up last month."  Interestingly, AVII (one of 3SOF portfolio stocks) is working its way up the list.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional+Ownership+Up+Last+Month&btnQryFrm=Go

[Terliso]

Quote from GNBT board:
good trading livelife....that's right, let's return to NVAX @ 3.50

looking to buy back my shares after the 3 days selloff...this baby should rebound on monday & i think it will 

[basonista]

I'll try to post the chart this weekend but I noticed today that on the 3 month chart, we had a bounce off the 50% fib retracement.  NVAX remains a bullish stock. 

[brandyjoco]

Novavax is presenting at the World Vaccine Congress in Washingtion 20-23 March 2006:

17.50 Case study: potential pandemic flu vaccine Virus-Like-Particle (VLP)
• A new vaccine platform to address the urgent need for pandemic flu vaccine
• Results of pre-clinical studies with an influenza avian (pandemic) H9N2 candidate VLP vaccine
• Novasomes® – a safe, patented adjuvant to help address the need for antigen sparing
• Rapid, disposable, scalable manufacturing process to meet vaccine needs for pandemic flu
Dr Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, Novavax, Inc

On a separate note, just thought you might want to know: 
Novavax has a long history with receiving federal NIH grants. They had received $19 million in 2000 to create a vaccine for HIV Aids.  Unfortunately it was canceled later after much research on VLP vaccines was completed (and paid for by a portion of the grant) .  They continue work on HIV under a separate smaller grant. They have also received money to study SARS, and their VLP vaccine was presented to Homeland Security so that if U.S. needs to be innoculated for a Small Pox terrorist threat - the VLP vaccine is safer otherwise thousands could die because of the current active smallpox vaccines. They also work on vaccines for Hep E which is very common in Africa and India.  Do a search for 'Novavax' on yahoo and you will be surprised at ALL the results of studies and grants.

[LiveLife]

I thought these reposts from Yahoo NVAX MB may be of interest to some:


10/28/05 NVAX MB


novavax shareholder (yes, that's his Yahoo profile ID!)

Yes, I do subscribe to the notion of sector diversification.

However, when I started to be "serious" this July, I was faced with the start of the "historical" bearish market of July-September.

I found myself diversified into 6-8 stock positions in "different" sectors, but due to the bearish market, my gains in one sector was negated by another sector. Bottomline? Little or no significant gain of my portfolio.

I mean, I already have a nice 401K with T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth that's been doing 14% - 24% along with my pension, so I decided (and was urged by several seasoned traders at 3SOF) to try "swing" trading for maximizing gains on a position.

What I found myself doing was holding my positions through the gain/profit taking cycle to not realize any net gains. I mean, if a stock goes up $2 (like NVAX did) and drops $2, did you realize any gains? NO!!! But if you sold at gain of $2 and bought back when it dropped, then you have actualized that $2 gain.

As to my 1-3 positions, I am not an long-term investor and do not subscribe to buy-and-hope or Cramer's buy-and-homework methods.

I buy on dip and sell on gains. That's my trade principle and it has worked for me the past several months through the "bearish" market time of the year.

Don't worry, my 401K fund is heavily diversified and my fund manager has done a great job the past 7 years. With my 401K, I move my money into stock fund (T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth) when the market is up and when the market is down, I move my money in to bond fund (like Vanguard GNMA fund) so I realize gains of 6-8% on "bearish" market and 14-24% on bullish market.

As to my swing trading, the $30K Scottrade account I have is my new hobby and not my "retirement" account.

Next week, I will be fully funding Roth IRA accounts for myself and my wife and for my brother. And yes, I will be swing trading with the Roth IRA funds to maximize "TAX FREE" growth.



retvet24,

Even when I sold NVAX, I stated that company has SOLID product lines, patents, licenses and $12.5 million partnership IN THE BANK!

NVAX, I believe is true long-term play.

I am not a long or an investor.

I am a short-term swing trader, so I must be objective and like David Randolph, be focused on the chart trends and to the trade plans.

I sold NVAX to cut my losses (I was going to hold cash) but saw GNBT gaining and thought traders were moving their gains to GNBT, so I bought, only to see GNBT lose later in the afternoon.

No one is perfect.  I approach each trading day as my first day at work as an aggressive fund manager.  This is how I start with people who email me as to the "poor" performing portfolio they have:

"Imagine you are a very successful stock trader who got a new promotion to fix some bad portfolios at your brokerage.  You walk into your corner office and look at the folders on your desk and find "losing" stock positions.  What would you do?"

Of course, initial buy point of those positions  are irrelevant if the "current" performance of the stock positions are "losing" money.  The "successful" trader will sell off all the stocks not "actively" gaining and replace them with stocks that are actively gaining or have immediate gain potential.  This is what I do everyday.  I look at my holdings to see what is making money and I sell the ones that are not,  especially in a bear market.

As a swing trader, I even consolidate my positions into a hold and "really" watch this one egg in my basket.  I look all the rise/fall of the stock closely and buy after profit taking dip and sell as the stock gains (as to not be too greedy) so that I don't chase a stock down as I am taking profit.

NVAX gave us some spectacular opportunies to take profits, but some of us, including me ($20,000 worth) did not.  It is our mistake to not have done so, because we were too "euphoric" in the huge gain potential of NVAX.

Well, the last three days gave us a "reality wake up call" and last night, I decided to return to "full on" swing trading, really focusing on what has worked for me.

Today, a seemingly bearish day for many, there was a large dip and gain and dip again.  I traded with the dip and gain and dip.

Yes, I am all in with NVAX again, because that is what I do, swing trade.  Based on the chart  trends, NVAX may have a little more to "price correct" before it resumes its climb up.  I am not too concerned because of the significant volume/institutional/money managers holding NVAX.  I have seen the price suppression of NVAX and why they are continuing to by NVAX.  Why would any fund manager buy any stock that is trash???  They keep buying NVAX instead of other stocks because they know something or they see gain potential.  I am "gambling" with the managers and it's my money, not anyone else's.

If I lose my shirt, it is mine.  I stated in my posts many times, "If you are uncomfortable, you should cash out and wait for the bull market to return"



hectorquerra,

Yesterday changed everything for me.

I am no longer an "emotional investor"

I am back to being a swing trader. If I find a better stock with even better gain potential than NVAX, I'll sell NVAX again and buy that stock.

For now, and I'll be doing more research this weekend, I am holding NVAX through the weekend for the Monday's open.

For 10,000 share blocks, today's dip and gain of $0.20 - $0.30 translates to $2,000 - $3,000 gain.



bryanharris,

As Terlisa pointed out to me last night (which I overlooked during the "euphoria" of NVAX gains) that NVAX RSI trend was above 70 again like late August when there was a huge spike and sell off to pre-spike levels.



brandyjoco,

This is what my wife told me when I lost my $1,200 following "Mad Money" recommendations.

Review your trade log (You do have one do you?) and just do the "opposite of what you did to lose money, and you will make money in future" - Ha, so simple.

I saw stock go down after I bought, only to sell and see the stock go back up!  oh my, have you all experienced this?  Of course, we all have.

Review your trades and carefully "look" at a  3 month chart and see what you did wrong and ask yourself these questions:

- Were you too greedy?
- Were you emotional or objective?
- Can you justify to anyone why you bought the stock?
- Can you justify to the same person why you sold?
- What "makes" you buy any stock?  Good objective chart trend/technicals/volume/fundamentals or "hunch"?
- Do you set specific entry/exit point?
- Do you immediately set a sell target of a stock?
- How much loss would you accept on a stock? If you don't do your chart trend/technicals/volume/fundamental, you won't know how long to take loss.
- Are you tracking your next group of stocks you should be buying after you sell?  And why not? Unwilling or no time? Then maybe you should consider Mutual Funds...
- If you want to swing trade, you must be willing to commit the time and energy to research and learn the stock trends
- Have you learned the basics of stock trading?  If not, 3StocksOnFire.org is an excellent site to do that
- Have you done "practice" trades (like with Yahoo portfolio) to ensure that you can time the stock movement according to chart trends and technical analysis?  If not, set up a practice portfolio (it's free and practice, practice, and practice)
- Are you having fun trading?  If not, ask yourself why not.
- Are you trading with funds that are "discretionary income?"
- If you don't know something, ask someone.  There are many at 3SOF that will gladly answer your questions. 

[defenderyou]

Well now its my term; another bad day with NVAX. I was very long going into NVAX this am but stopped out at 3.60 down 3.43 on half my position; reentered for a small profit from 3.53 to 3.65; so now I sit with 3/5 of my original position with no net gain. Have a funny feeling this may pop next week if some of the so-called expectednews announceents will help. However, if I am wrong I will get out completely and start all over again.

I have really traded badly the last two days; funny started out smart selling half in 5.50s but I was a total idiot to catch a falling knife buying more in the 4s from 4.02 to 4.98 the other day, not selling anything until the mid 3s as the pain just got to be intolerable. In the last 90 days I was up 37% on the investment portfolio but gave back almost 10% of that this week.

SVA was no better but I did not even see that coming so I decided to stand pat, and would have bought more if it traded above 5.56 which it did not after the fall. The drop was precipitous and was one large seller - amazing that it did not recover in a way but clearly I dont understand these stocks and should probably stay away. But I have a lot of NVAX and SVA still so I will be glued to the screen Monday am.

The only thinkg that worked well for me was my arql which popped about 8% and since I have a lot of that it cut my losses signifcantly.

Something was really wrong for me this week and I think a lot has to do with me playing pure momentum stocks when I don't have enough understanding about the  fundamentals behind them - like NVAX and SVA.

I am still in HOM and in fact I bought more. Was actually going to by but more SVA if it traded over 5.57 which it did not - that was probably a good thing.

Oh well, I must say this all depressed me so I will need to get some rest and see what next week brings.

WOnder what David did - did he dump SVA and NVAX as they both are below his target exit points?

[LiveLife]

Hi    Reposts from Yahoo MB regarding NVAX action this week:  (15th post from top)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29061#msg29061

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo NVAX MB:

With previous post said, I believe we should approach Monday as though we just walked on to the stock market (with FRESH and OBJECTIVE perspectives).

As confirmed by Bloomberg report below, after today's rally, market is poised to go bullish after last three months of "bearish" market trends.

If we don't have an objective fresh look at the market, we may not do what we need to do. 

Bloomberg just reported these:

- We are just coming out of the historical annual "bear market" that runs from late July-September.
- Historically during this time, market loses about 10% of value...Nasdaq lost 9%, confirming the annual trend.
- Historically, November through January has shown to be bullish following the these bearish months.
- There are good GDP numbers showing that economy is improving as we move into the holiday seasons.
- Market rally of Friday despite poor earnings by companies like Microsoft expresses that market maybe ready for a bullish return

[rickjust]

nice retracement on nvax today , to the 50 % fib
good swing trade  this week