NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[bjc]

Are you sure those minute changes in the % are actually buys?  I was thinking it might just have to do with the daily fluctuations of the stock.

[mitchjas]

Anyone have any thoughts on NVAX?

[wrangler]

Hi to all involved here is my thoughts on NVAX. Excellant long term and probably short term plays.I have made three post on this thread on page 29 that will give some positive reasons to hold and buy.Good luck trading to all :)here is copy of most important parts.Look at the date of the insider buying by the Director on 11-11&11-14.Usually when an insider buys it can take anywhere from 2 weeks to 6 monyhs for the reaction shows. It depends on how long you're willing to hold to reap the rewards.

Reuters
Roche settles dispute with Gilead
Wednesday November 16, 6:24 am ET
By Tom Armitage
Other companies are working to get new production facilities up and running.

Novartis, which recently acquired the remaining shares of flu vaccine maker Chiron, is considering building a plant in the United States, where it has a $62.5 million government contract to supply pre-pandemic H5N1 influenza vaccine.
Name and Address of Reporting Person * 
EVANS GARY C
   2. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol
NOVAVAX INC [ NVAX ]  5. Relationship of Reporting Person(s) to Issuer

(Check all applicable)
__ X __ Director _____ 10% Owner
_____ Officer (give title below) _____ Other (specify below)


(Last) (First) (Middle)

508 LAPP ROAD  3. Date of Earliest Transaction (Month/Day/Year)
11/11/2005 
(Street)
MALVERN, PA   19355  4. If Amendment, Date Original Filed(Month/Day/Year)
6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing(Check Applicable Line)
__ X __ Form filed by One Reporting Person
_____ Form filed by More than One Reporting Person 
(City) (State) (Zip)



Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Acquired, Disposed of, or Beneficially Owned 1.Title of Security
(Instr. 3) 2. Transaction Date (Month/Day/Year) 2A. Deemed Execution Date, if any (Month/Day/Year) 3. Transaction Code
(Instr.  4. Securities Acquired (A) or Disposed of (D)
(Instr. 3, 4 and 5) 5. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction(s)
(Instr. 3 and 4) 6. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I)
(Instr. 4) 7. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership
(Instr. 4)
Code V Amount (A) or (D) Price
Common Stock ($.01 par value)  11/11/2005   P   5,000  A  $ 3.12  548,300  D   
Common Stock ($.01 par value)  11/14/2005   P   40,000  A  $ 2.894  588,300  D   

[stopthemadness]

guess i got in a little too early... i was hoping the profit taking was over.

or...

are we just heading down? and yesterday was just a blip?

[stopthemadness]

LiveLife,

any comments on today's action?

[LiveLife]

stopthemadness,

I wasn't planning to post my "take" on NVAX tonight because what I think will undoubtedly make a lot of people certainly upset and angry.  But I believe some of you (like me) may need to hear this, so here it is.

After weeks of solid blue Institutional/Money Manager activity with almost little or no selling, today there was a day long solid red activity in blocks of 100K - 200K.

I posted in the past that when I see Inst/MMs start selling, that I would sell also.

I am back in "full" swing trade mode, so I held cash several times as NVAX took profit and sold off.  Each time I sold NVAX, I quietly "hoped" that NVAX would rally back and rebound back to $4, $5, $6 range.  I mean, could all of the Inst/MMs be wrong?  Their unwillingness to sell kept my hope going, and I truly believed that the profit taking and selloff were just a temporary price correction.  You could see this level of conviction by the number and comprehensiveness of my posts with NVAX here.

I posted in the "swing trade" MB this morning that due to this "emotional and personal" attachment to Novavax, yesterday I chose to buy back NVAX instead of CDE (see comparison intraday chart NVAX vs CDE) and missed out on around $4,000 gain and worse yet, took several thousand dollars of loss with NVAX: (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.30#bot)

I got approval from my employer yesterday to work part-time so I can trade from market open (6:30 AM PST) to around noon, and today was my first "real" day of daytrading.  As I traded frantically to make up the loss of yesterday, I began to realize that I am a stock trader, not an investor of Novavax.  This point was made "painfully" as I watched the intraday chart for NVAX and my heart sank as I saw the solid red arrows and bars show up on Lycos I-watch charts.

Although CDE gained intraday, I felt very "uneasy" all day.

Will I buy back NVAX in the future?  You bet!  If the rebound activity is there, I will do it tomorrow, to swing trade NVAX!  But I will do it as a swing trader, not as an investor of Novavax.

[[D] Investor]

It's okay. I took a hit when AOB tanked sharply recently. But keep up the good work. Hard work pays off and no pain no gain! 

[2ez]

LiveLife,

I thought institutions bought for $4.30 a week or two ago.

Why pay more attention to yesterdays activity and not the transaction from the other week  ?         

[LiveLife]

2ez,

I am sure there are still a lot of Institutional/Money Managers still holding NVAX shares.  But I have posted in earlier posts that weeks of accumulation with little or no selling was very "unusual" but I would recommend sell once the Inst/MMs start selling.  They started selling all day yesterday and today.  (see Lycos I-watch charts below for yesterday and today)

I am a short-term swing trader and cannot afford to wait through the up/down swings.  In fact, I must ride the up/down swings to maximize my gains.

Swing trading (and now daytrading) must be pursued aggressively to make the most of your trades in achieving the goal of making positive gains with each swing trade, to end up with more gains overall than holding through the ups and downs.  That's why I created a separate swing trade MB thread:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.45#bot

Have a nice weekend and good trading!

FYI, after today's activity, I will be checking out VRA on Monday's market open.

[tokyopua]

Anybody here catch all the strange action in NVAX at the close?  Dow Jones announced a "Market on Close Sell" 186K shares, like the average investor is supposed to know what that means.  I googled all over and cant really make heads or tails of it still.  The actual title of the "article" was

"Mkt on Close Sell Imbalance: Shrs 186101"

and there was no text to the article.

Now the Yahoo MB was buzzing about this because there was a breif price spike 5 minutes before this news message, and then there appeared to be 400K odd shares traded around 4 PM and 4:01 PM.

Anyway, I just want to figure out what all this means to NVAX, maybe someone here can give an opinion.

[LiveLife]

tokyopua, maybe this will "shed some light" on your questons:


Repost from Yahoo MB

"Solved!!: Mystery Volume at Close
by: here2learnyoualesson
11/18/05 11:37 pm
Msg: 76707 of 76734

For those of you who saw the large volume and didn't know what to attribute it to (ie whether it was a buy or sell), here is the answer. This is cut and pasted from the NASDAQ website regarding the Nasdaq Biotech Index rebalancing, refer to the last sentence (Link at bottom)

Semi-annual Ranking Review
The Index Securities are evaluated semi-annually. Securities currently within the Index must meet the maintenance criteria of $100 million in market capitalization and 50,000 shares average daily trading volume. Index securities not meeting the maintenance criteria are retained in the Index provided that such security met the maintenance criteria in the previous semi-annual ranking. Securities not meeting the maintenance criteria for two consecutive rankings are removed. Changes will occur after the close of trading on the third Friday in May and November using March and September closing price and volume data and April and October publicly available total share outstanding data.

http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaqbiotech_activity.stm"



Repost from Yahoo MB

Quote:

"The easy money has been made in NVAX...i.e. when it went to 6 dollars....the main problem is that there are too many companies involved in avian flu projects including some large ones like Chiron and Roche. The money is spread around too thinly. Look at a 3 month chart...as other companies get some visibility for avian flu...the volume on NVAX has slowly declined...   give this board facts and links about NVAX..."

My response to above quote

As quoted, here is another such company involved in the Avian issue:
(http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh55089_2005-11-18_21-38-33_n18135190_newsml)

"NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Viragen Inc. (VRA.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said preliminary in-vitro studies of its drug Multiferon showed that it was effective against the virus that causes avian flu, sending shares of the biotech company up more than 80 percent. More at link"


If you are interested in following my swing trade on VRA, here's the swing trade MB link: (3rd post from top)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.60

[LiveLife]

2ez, as anticipated, Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index - NNZ percentage holding for NVAX went down from 8.38%, but they are still holding significant amount of NVAX shares.

[1reilly]

LiveLife
I hope to clarify something. Your statement that Merrill Lynch's Nanotech index ownership position in nvax has gone from 8.38% to 7.54% might indicate to some that they are reducing their position. You keep posting these changes as though this might be your perception also. I think it's important to state that this percentage deals with the change in market value not share ownership. When the value of NVAX goes up it obviously becomes a larger % of the total portfolio or vice-versa. Merrill is not trading the stock. If their opinion changes regarding this stock's viability they will eliminate the entire position. Many people don't understand that index funds have strict rules regarding acquisition of positions and sector weighting. Once a security is deemed to qua;ify for the index it will not be sold unless it's corporate integrity changes. Therefore you need only to concern yourself with the continued retention in this index. Hope this helps,might save you a little posting time. I would wish you good luck in your trading but hard work always outperforms good luck and you certainly work hard. That will lead to success.

[LiveLife]

1reilly,

I stand corrected.

Yes, the percentage of NVAX holding of ML Index is "proportional" to percentage of other stocks held.

If MB Index sells another stock position, then the NVAX percentage will increase and vise versa.  Just becaue the NVAX percentage went down doesn't mean ML Index "sold" NVAX shares, ML Index could have bought more of another stock position.

Thanks for pointing this out!

[1reilly]

LL
I May be sending a duplicate reply, it's too early. I have not made myself clear. Let's say you have $100,000 portfolio and you weight each stock at 5% so you have 20 positions. Now hypothetically, don't worry about the math just the thought. One stock goes from 3 to 6 all other stocks stay the same. The portfolio value has gone up but only one stock is now more that 5% of the portfolio in market value. the other stocks are now less than 5% of the portfolio. This why many index funds have automatic rebalancing mechanisms. However rebalacing is defined and announced. NVAX percentage of the portfolio is a product of its daily market value and that value's relationship to overall porfolio value. Don't consider sales of any kind consider mkt value of NVAX. Hope this helps
Mike