NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Buyhigh?]

Hopefully the Bird Flu awareness segment on 60 minutes tonight will boost NVAX this week and beyond....

[David Randolph]

I was almost stopped out on Friday, on the terrible sell off NVAX had. But I wasn't, so I still hold it.

I'm going to trust insider buying to give a little more flexibility to NVAX, because I believe the time for it to rise big is almost coming, but it isn't exactly now. As you can check on the chart below, the price is developing a symmetrical triangle.

Support stands at $3.03 and resistance at $3.75. I'll continue holding for as long as the stock doesn't close below the lower limit of this symmetrical triangle pattern.

[shawFund]

Re-take position this morning at $3.42 due to upgrade at 10:47am:

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of Novavax, Inc. (NASDQ: NVAX- News) with a Market Outperform Rating and a 12-month price target $6.00. Navdeep Jaikaria, PH.D, Senior Biotechnology Analyst, issued the report.

It seems that the break-out will be on up not down. So far, the volume is about 4.3 million. If it traded 11 million, the price may be pushed up to $4.0 ($0.70).

[REALDEALS21]

RUNNING ON NEWS................

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Announces Investment Opinion on Novavax, Inc.
Monday December 5, 10:47 am ET 
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of Novavax, Inc. With A Market Outperform Rating
Analyst Sets 12 Month Target Price of $6.00


NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 5, 2005--Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of Novavax, Inc. (NASDQ: NVAX- News) with a Market Outperform Rating and a 12-month price target $6.00. Navdeep Jaikaria, PH.D, Senior Biotechnology Analyst, issued the report.
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About Rodman & Renshaw, LLC

Rodman & Renshaw is a privately held, full-service investment bank committed to fostering the long-term success of growth companies through capital raising, strategic advice, insightful research, and the development of institutional support. More information is available at www.rodmanandrenshaw.com

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Novavax, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of October 31, 2005, neither Rodman & Renshaw, LLC nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Novavax, Inc.

Neither the research analyst nor Rodman & Renshaw, LLC has any material conflict of interest with Novavax, Inc., of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or its affiliates did receive compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within the last twelve months and Rodman & Renshaw, LLC intends to seek compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor Rodman & Renshaw, LLC serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of Novavax, Inc.

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC makes a market in Novavax, Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.

The above information is not intended to be used as a primary basis of investment decisions. It is not a representation by Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Before investing in Novavax, Inc., you should carefully consider your risk tolerance and financial objectives.

[REALDEALS21]

Just broke the 3.75 resistance ! Into the blue skies now !  We will see $4 + this week !

[la-onda]

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Announces Investment Opinion on Novavax, Inc.
Monday December 5, 10:47 am ET 
Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of Novavax, Inc. With A Market Outperform Rating
Analyst Sets 12 Month Target Price of $6.00


NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 5, 2005--Rodman & Renshaw, LLC initiated research coverage of Novavax, Inc. (NASDQ: NVAX- News) with a Market Outperform Rating and a 12-month price target $6.00. Navdeep Jaikaria, PH.D, Senior Biotechnology Analyst, issued the report.

[shawFund]

Out at $3.91 and took $0.50 profit for 10k shares.

May enter it later. Need to have some sleep. Very happy with my trading. Took some position for LEXR. Semi sector will be down for few days then up again. May be it will be traded in a range in December. I do not see much down risk rivght now as the earnings are quite good for semi sector.

[bjc]

I'm thinking we may have failed to break the 3.94 / 4 resistance and we may retrace to the 50 ma.  Considering selling half or all my position in order to get a better price, and avoid watching my profits dissappear.

Any opinions? 

[gielda2003]

I'm out at $3.88.
Will reload at 50 MA.

GLTA,

Gielda

[David Randolph]

The news of an upgrade for NVAX really moved the stock: Rodman & Renshaw, LLC Initiates Coverage of Novavax, Inc. With A Market Outperform Rating - Analyst Sets 12 Month Target Price of $6.00

I really would like to read the reasoning behind this upgrade. I don't feel comfortable with it, here's why:

1) «Rodman & Renshaw, LLC or its affiliates did receive compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within the last twelve months and Rodman & Renshaw, LLC intends to seek compensation from Novavax, Inc. for investment banking services within three months, following publication of the research report.»

2) «Rodman & Renshaw, LLC makes a market in Novavax, Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.»

3) «Novavax to raise $18M in stock sale
Wednesday November 2, 10:06 am ET

Novavax Inc. entered into definitive agreements Wednesday to raise $18 million through the sale of 4.2 million shares of common stock at $4.30 per share

The Malvern, Pa., biopharmaceutical company plans to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including clinical development of avian and seasonal flu vaccines, internal research and the expansion of the company's research and development facilities.

Rodman & Renshaw acted as the exclusive placement agent for the Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX - News) offering. The stock will be sold under the terms of the company's effective shelf registration statement.

Published November 2, 2005 by the Philadelphia Business Journal»

Probably the short term reason was that people that bought those 4.2 million shares at $4.30 were upset with the stock at $3 - $3.50. But I don't think they used the upgrade to dump those 4.2 million shares on open market investors, because they were still losing, right? It is hard to convince just one man to take a loss, imagine a crowd.

A guy at the Yahoo board made a study about this Rodman & Renshaw, and actually they did pretty well on their private placements, except for NVAX, read here if you want: Message on Yahoo Board

So, I have negatives and positives for the stock, but no conclusion.

Why was it down 4.5% in after hours trading, anybody knows? Some people are talking it is because of a delay in government funding, but I didn't find the news anywhere.

Anyway, I must think of basic conditions and of what led me to buy this stock in the first place (insider buying and demand for specific theme stocks in the near future). Can I see an ugly drop from my buying price? Yes, I can, but the upside is also huge.

So, here's what I'll do:

- I'll continue holding for as long as the stock is set to close above the ascending trendline on the chart below, which for today stands at $3.08.

[shawFund]

Bio sector is quite hot recently. In addition to SPEX, some our previous picks made big moves recently and may continue the uptrend. ELN is one of them.

See the chart:

[shawFund]

In addition to Bio sector, gold sector is also very hot these days.

The leaders are GBN, GRZ, MMG, AEM, MRB, BMD, ...

Here is one chart: AEM

[David Randolph]

You're right shawFund, ELN and the gold sector are hot 

A congressional testimony yesterday revealed the government's plan to fight an impending avian flu pandemic:

Congressional Testimony: Avian Flu

I would like to highlight this:

«The initial component of this strategy is to increase the number of domestic manufacturers of traditional egg-based influenza vaccines; only one currently exists within the United States. Doing so will allow the United States to manufacture a 20 million course pre-pandemic vaccine stockpile by 2009, without disrupting the production of annual seasonal influenza vaccine. In the event that a pandemic appears imminent or earlier if circumstances warrant we could use this pre-pandemic vaccine to immunize healthcare workers, front-line responders, vaccine-manufacturing personnel, and others critical to the pandemic response. With the addition of the domestic infrastructure required to produce the pre-pandemic vaccine, egg-based production capacity will be able to provide an additional 60 million courses of vaccine within six months of the emergence of a pandemic.

Egg-based production alone, however, cannot bring us to our goal of having the surge capacity in the United States to produce 300 million courses of vaccine in a six-month time frame. Instead, the best hope for acquiring a vaccine manufacturing capacity in the United States that we could to ramp up rapidly on short notice lies in expanding and accelerating our investment in non- egg-based technologies, specifically cell-based influenza vaccines. Much of the investment in vaccines outlined in the HHS Plan goes toward this initiative. The proposed investments will allow creation of new domestic facilities that would provide the surge capacity to manufacture approximately 240 million vaccine courses within six months of a pandemic outbreak. »

NVAX uses a non egg based technology:

«About Virus-Like Particle (VLP) Technology

Novavax's VLP vaccine approach uses recombinant DNA technology to create components of the influenza virus in structures optimized to elicit a protective immune response. The three dimensional virus like structures are designed to give protection without the risk of infection and without the addition of chemical adjuvants. Novavax's proprietary process produces vaccines aseptically, reduces contamination risk and leads to high, cost-effective yields.»

I'll continue with my plan of holding for as long as the stock closes above the short term ascending trendline. For today that trendline stands at $3.11.

[Prfsr Hal]

I've been holding and adding ELN in the 10's and low 11's.  15 may be a short term target but medium range I expect to see it back in the mid 20's and above.

Prfsr Hal

[bjc]

Something clicked with NVAX.

Currently bid 3.84 ask 3.85.

Of course, right after I sold half my position at 3.68.