NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

Below the candlesticks, I've drawn the 5 Elliott Waves.  The theory is that Waves 1,3 and 5 are waves in the direction of the trend (in this case, up) and Waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves (opposite the trend, so in this case, down).

Wave 1 - begins at the bottom of the Ascending Triangle at 2.73 on November 14.

Wave 2 - was a simple correction from 3.94 to a low of 2.94.  My understanding is that Waves 2 and 4 (the corrective waves) should be alternating.  If Wave 2 is simple like this one, Wave 4 should be "complex."  We'll see that in a second.

Wave 3 - usually is the largest move of the 5 waves, in the direction of the trend.  It was, so far.

Wave 4 - is and "A-B-C" corrective rally.  It went down...up...down.  (see chart).  It was a "complex" move down, rather than the "simple" move straight down in Wave 2.  Wave 4 also is a Bullish Gartley, which is encouraging.  It needs to move higher now to confirm that, of course.

Wave 5 - is another rally, which is what we should have here.  The Ascending Triangle target of 5.15 still is IN PLAY.  Sometimes, Wave 5 rallies get "truncated," or "cut off," so the target doesn't quite get MADE.  We'll have to watch.

As I mentioned in the last post, the bottom of Wave 4 (which it looks like what we're in now) shouldn't violate the high of Wave 1, which was 3.94.  If NVAX goes below 3.94, it likely will go lower.

[422fwhp]

Thanks Melf...very nice.

*applaud*

Jody

[SmartWrasse]

Screwed again, stock offering   

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh23542_2005-12-21_21-31-02_wbt004422_newsml

[oicpecnoc]

i just never get tierd of a good old equity shelf offering or  private placement.  I'm not even in this and still makes me sick.  Not the end of the world, but a frustrating reality of short term speculative trading I guiess.

[SmartWrasse]

Well I am not too happy since I bought more.  The question is will it make a VPHM type of rebound or should I just take my loss tomorrow

[David Randolph]

Damn it, we got the deadly S-3 SEC Form after the close on NVAX  The stock is down 14% after hours ...

The offering is pretty significant, of $100M for a $202M market cap.

A man involved in a speculative business like stock trading must be prepared for a gap down like this to happen. This is why diversification is so important.

Also, if NVAX was to get important government funding it wouldn't need to offer this $100M in stock for sale.

I'll sell NVAX tomorrow around the open, probably I'll still get a profit.

[berloga]

David, I thought the same thing when I heard the news tonight: "why do they do this if they are to get a lot of money soon?" The last straw of hope would be a thought that NVAX "knows" it is getting the money and hence the stock will be strong - it'll be able to fill in the gigantic order of $100M. But selling in the morning may still be prudent.

[shawFund]

NVAX gave sell signal few days ago: it made lower highs.

Also, all technical indicators including candlestick signal said SELL.

The market may already know the private placement - chart showed it.

[shaka88]

Might be an opportunity @ lower fibs retracement from current 4.12 area-
@ 38.6% fib retracement @ 3.2
@ 61.8% retracement of 2.27 and
@ 78.6% @ 1.61. ....

In the Oct/Nov. dilution of 4.1 million shares @ 4.3$ -- NVAX retraced down to 2.73 area from 6$ ~ 61.8% fibs retracement to 2.73 area -- (55% hair cut from 6$) before bounced to 4.88 area -- those holders prolly took the opportunity to dump at above 4.3$...

Comes January who knows - but looks like NVAX mgmt want to pay up for some new year bonuses!

So watch out those fibs levels @ 38.6% and 61.8% retracements

Cheers!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Novavax files $100 mln equity shelf offering
Wed Dec 21, 2005 04:31 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Biotech company Novavax Inc. (NVAX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said it may periodically sell up to $100 million in common and preferred stock and warrants.

The company said it plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include clinical development of avian and seasonal flu vaccines, internal research and development, expansion of facilities and general working capital.

If filed a shelf registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.

[tokyopua]

Wow, for once I got lucky on these offerings, I sold yesterday at 4.14 just because I had a bad feeling about the stock based on having traded it actively since October (and I was watching a particularly fast slide on Level 2).  Yesterday I was kicking myself for not taking profits at 4.8...

I have traded this stock more than any other stock so I acted on a hunch.  I guess my thought now will be where to try to buy it back, if at all, maybe it can go up. 

I will say this though, this sucks for NVAX to do this again so soon.  Sorry to all who got caught, we have all been there more times than we care to admit.

[tokyopua]

I took a closer look at this and its not an immediate dilution, but rather a registration. it makes me think that this is a bit of an over reaction in AH to drop the price 14%...  Yes, it brings in uncertainty in the future, but maybe the stock can recover enough to keep the trade?  Its a hard call and I am out of the stock so on my side its just trying to figure out if its good to get in tomorrow, but both decisions to stay or get in would pivot around whether the stock should really drop this much on this news, and whether the senate vote can help it recover...  what do others here think?

[1reilly]

David I agree with your decision to move to the sidelines because your TA would have made you a seller today any way. But for those of you out there that will continue to follow the stock or who are looking for a re-entry consider what has happened. NAVX has filed a shelf registration. There are a number of reasons for a shelf and in some cases it can tell you that the company is executing a very solid business model. We will have to wait and see. I don't believe this shelf was filed to cope with cash burn. I find the timing of the shelf very interesting. I believe it has to do with completion of a business model. Short term negative - Yes. Long term will this shelf be used to purchase accretive assets - maybe. I for one will watch this closely because my gut tells me the timing of this announcement is strange. One final thought, I don't believe one share will be available from this shelf a these price levels.

[SmartWrasse]

I have been thinking some of the same things 1reilly.  I traded some locking in gains on half of my total position at 4.73, but unfortunately bought my trading position back yesterday anticipating the news of receiving some of my tax $ from congress.

This timing is strange.  The shares are not out today, but that is a lot of unknown dilution that could be unleashed at a moments notice.  Is this related to a possible takeover/buyout, a positive big announcement, or just greed? 

Why have insiders bought the stock recently?

I suppose the safe thing to do is reduce some of my risk from this volatile risky position.  Obviously, a new technology to produce milllions of vaccines in short periods of time is increadibly valuable, but so are my investments.

[SmartWrasse]

Not that long since Oct/Nov

[SmartWrasse]

Any comments on the close of almost 4?

I held a portion of my position in hopes of a rebound