NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Terliso]

just like Shawfund said ...SIGNAL TO SELL is waving at you

Here, 1 more before going to bed ....NVAX... tell me what see there? & judge by yourself

when chart & indicator is talking it pays to listen!!!

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1892.0

[shawFund]

Based on today's chart formation, gap down but ended at high, which is a bullish candlestick signal.

It needs further confirmation.

Keep a close eye on it.

But because there are so many bullish stocks to have, I may not have enough capital for this stock.

AMD is already over my year-end target of $30 as of today. I don't know how much higher it may go. As long as it is still above its 9-EMA, will hold it.

ELN pulled back and is a good time to initiate a new position if not so before.

[1reilly]

NVAX receives 8 Mil cash payment on ESTRASORB
PR newswire 12-23-2005 - 7:00 A.M.

[1reilly]

Shaw fund
This 8 Mil in cash payment on ESTRASORB today now gives NVAX 30Mil in cash for 2006. This combined with Gary Evan's statement that NVAX has no current plans to access the public market convinces me that the shelf is for something important. I agree with you this stock should stay on peoples watch list. I actually added on the break but I do have a long term outlook, as I do with Elan.

[shawFund]

NVAX is basically a story stock.

I looked at its income statement, it seems that the cash burn rate has gone down last few qts:

10 mil -> 8.8 mil -> 5.7 mil -> 2.7 mil.

But it has only 6.94 mil cash left with 36 mil debt. No doubt it needs cash to keep its business going. It is good to hear that it received 8 mil payment from a drug company. But it needs additional money anyway and this will keep the stock going up for a while.

[Melf Elf]

As I mentioned in the last post, the bottom of Wave 4 (which it looks like what we're in now) shouldn't violate the high of Wave 1, which was 3.94.  If NVAX goes below 3.94, it likely will go lower.

NVAX broke 3.94 and double-bottomed at 3.65-3.66.

If NVAX can take out the top of the Bull Flag (solid green), it puts 4.88 IN PLAY,  the recent high  Data points for the down trendline (green dotted line) off the 4.88 high are on the chart below.

NVAX currently is BID 4.17...ASK 4.18

[Melf Elf]

If NVAX can take out the top of the Bull Flag (solid green), it puts 4.88 IN PLAY,  the recent high  Data points for the down trendline (green dotted line) off the 4.88 high are on the chart below.

NVAX currently is BID 4.17...ASK 4.18

DOUBLE breakout on the print of 4.29 at 1:18PM.  The 4.88 area is IN PLAY as long as NVAX remains above the flag.

[margeri]

nice gain today!!!  up near  .50

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=NVAX&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

[Melf Elf]

DOUBLE breakout on the print of 4.29 at 1:18PM.  The 4.88 area is IN PLAY as long as NVAX remains above the flag.

NVAX rallied to 4.78 this week, shy of the 4.88 target that is IN PLAY.

I like the way that this rally has unfolded, though, since we completed the A-B-C correction off the December high (see wave structure drawn below the chart). 

Double bottom at 3.65-3.66, then a Bull Flag, then Monday's breakout at 4.29.  The chart looks nice, and it still would look good on any pullback.  Actually, I'd like to see a pulback here to test support, and to give the chart even better structure for a push higher.  There are a lot of possible support areas below here:

1. The Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.  4.30...4.26... and 4.04 (see next post).
2. The top of the Bull Flag (solid green lines).  Call it 4.20ish
3. The down trendline off the December high (dotted blue line) Roughly 4.12
4. The top of the November Ascending Triangle at 3.94
5. The 50DMA at about 3.83 (dotted green line)

A selloff to the 50DMA would seem a bit much, though. 

[Melf Elf]

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo support levels:

Tenkan-Sen  (Solid green line) - 4.30
Kijun-Sen (Solid red line) - 4.265
Top of the Kumo (Cloud) - 4.045

[Melf Elf]

Actually, I'd like to see a pulback here to test support, and to give the chart even better structure for a push higher.  There are a lot of possible support areas below here:

1. The Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.  4.30...4.26... and 4.04 (see next post).
2. The top of the Bull Flag (solid green lines).  Call it 4.20ish
3. The down trendline off the December high (dotted blue line) Roughly 4.12
4. The top of the November Ascending Triangle at 3.94
5. The 50DMA at about 3.83 (dotted green line)

NVAX broke all of #1 support except the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) at 4.04, and it broke below #2 support, the top of the Bull Flag. 

Given that NVAX put in a "mini" H&S top (neckline is 4.33), I don't expect the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) to be support.  It could be, but where I would expect to find some kind of bottom is at QUADRUPLE  support, 3.87-3.94:

1. 3.9476 is where the down trendline off the December 14 high of 4.88 comes in on Monday, January 23 (dotted blue line).

2. 3.94 is the top of the November-early December Ascending triangle )bold blue line).

3. 3.88 is IN PLAY from the "mini" H&S top (dotted red circles). 

Math:  The high of the Head was 4.78.  Neckline: 4.33.
4.78-4.33= 0.45 points.....Neckline break at 4.33 - 0.45 = Target: 3.88 IN PLAY

4. The 50DMA is at 3.868 and is rising slightly, so it will be a bit higher on Monday, January 23. (dotted green line)

A selloff to the 50DMA would seem a bit much, though.

I disagree with myself on that now.   

While I'd like to see 3.94 (the top of the Ascending Triangle) hold if we head down there this coming week, we have technical justification for violating it, and testing 3.87-3.88 because of Supports #3 and #4.

If we do head down to 3.87-3.94 next week, NVAX "should" bounce off it like a scalded cat since that level offers QUADRUPLE support to a stock that still is in an uptrend.

[Melf Elf]

3. 3.88 is IN PLAY from the "mini" H&S top (dotted red circles). 

Math:  The high of the Head was 4.78.  Neckline: 4.33.
4.78-4.33= 0.45 points.....Neckline break at 4.33 - 0.45 = Target: 3.88 IN PLAY

Here's the H&S top on the Hourly Chart, which isn't quite right, but we get the picture. 

I was watching the 10-Minute chart on Friday when it was stalling just above 4.33, and when NVAX broke below the 4.33 neckline, it tanked rather severely.  This is a heavily traded stock, and  it seems to be technically driven by the traders who play it. 

Some of you will remember, for example, how NVAX bounced exactly off its .618 retracement level of 2.73 on November 14.  These kinds of things suggest that technicians enter and exit the stock at key price levels, which has much to do with why I think NVAX will bounce off QUADRUPLE support at 3.87-3.94, if we head down there next week.

[Melf Elf]

NVAX broke all of #1 support except the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) at 4.04, and it broke below #2 support, the top of the Bull Flag. 

Given that NVAX put in a "mini" H&S top (neckline is 4.33), I don't expect the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) to be support.  It could be, but where I would expect to find some kind of bottom is at QUADRUPLE  support, 3.87-3.94:

So far, we've got an early drop to 4.04 exactly, then a bounce back to unchanged.  4.04 "could be" support, but I'm hoping that isn't .

[Melf Elf]

So far, we've got an early drop to 4.04 exactly, then a bounce back to unchanged.  4.04 "could be" support, but I'm hoping that isn't .

NVAX is running off that 4.04 low.  Drat!   

It just hit 4.32.  The neckline break on Friday of the intraday H&S top was 4.33, so we'll see how it does at that resistance.

[Melf Elf]

It just hit 4.32.  The neckline break on Friday of the intraday H&S top was 4.33, so we'll see how it does at that resistance.

The quick rally to 4.32, a penny below the 4.33 neckline resistance of the H&S top was the high of the day, which is another example of...

This is a heavily traded stock, and it seems to be technically driven by the traders who play it.

Traders sure knew where that neckline was, and sold it! 

This morning's low of 4.04 , right at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), could be it for the downside.  I was hoping for a test of that QUADRUPLE support at 3.87-3.94..  We still could get it, but the stock, overall, is bullish, so the bounce off Kumo (Cloud) support looks pretty good. 

Darn it.