NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Ramsburg]

Update:
NVAX has the Earnings Conference call scheduled for 10:00am, we are not going to take any risks with this position, and we'll sell it before that.
We'll get NVAX again for the 3SOF portfolio and just in case we'll let a standby re-entry plan with suggested buy near $4.50 (this plan will probably be adjusted later).

Trading Plan:
SELL NVAX at or near the open

Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.50

Best regards,

[tokyopua]

Update:
NVAX has the Earnings Conference call scheduled for 10:00am, we are not going to take any risks with this position, and we'll sell it before that.
We'll get NVAX again for the 3SOF portfolio and just in case we'll let a standby re-entry plan with suggested buy near $4.50 (this plan will probably be adjusted later).

Trading Plan:
SELL NVAX at or near the open

Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.50

Best regards,

Great call Rams, I bailed out at 4.94 in extended hours after seeing the earnings, they did not look good.  I was surprised to get filled there and surprised that NVAX showed so much strenght in the face of those earnings.  High R&D, lower contributions from product sales.  Clearly the story is what is keeping the price up as always at this time of year.

[Ramsburg]

Great call Rams, I bailed out at 4.94 in extended hours after seeing the earnings, they did not look good.  I was surprised to get filled there and surprised that NVAX showed so much strenght in the face of those earnings.  High R&D, lower contributions from product sales.  Clearly the story is what is keeping the price up as always at this time of year.

Thanks Toky

About my re-entry «standby plan», I guess «near $4.50» was not good enough  the low of the day was $4.61, I was watching it in order to buy at $4.55 or something like that, but it was a really fast «V» price action...

We'll keep monitoring NVAX, and we'll stand with the same standby plan «near $4.50» for now.

[ScottishTrader]

Well NVAX released earnings today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061114/ph00839.html?.v=2

and gapped down slightly, hiting some heavy early selling.  Earnings didn't actually look all that bad for me for a loss-making biotech in a heavy R&D phase.  However, the main thing is we got a 4th consective tag of 4.61, confirming that this is definitely, has got to be support.  In fact, NVAX rallied the rest of the day to close back where it opened, at 4.90 (suggesting people liked the CC).  This is also the second straight close above the top of the rising wedge (which is normally bearish).  I think this bodes well for NVAX, and if it closes above 5.00 again, should hopefully be on its way to test next reistance at 5.40.  However, I should put in a word of warning that the CCI is looking like it could put in a short term sell signal soon.  Notice the previous double topps in the CCI both signalled pullbacks to support.

So the plan remains for now: hold for 1st target area of 5.35-5.40, stop at 4.58, just below that key 4.61 support.

[Ramsburg]

Update:

Yesterday I made a mistake planning the re-entry plan... I was pretty sure of a quick intraday sell-off on NVAX, but I was way too greedy setting my re-entry goal «near» $2.50.... $2.61 wasn't «near enough», and we missed a good intraday move to the highs of the day again.

I'm bullish on NVAX, but I don't feel like chasing it, NVAX is a volatile stock, so I'll just give an upgraded re-entry zone.
By the way, and explaining why I'm using this «near» and not a particular price: sometimes we need to be a bit flexible when acting on intraday price action, so «near» will be something like a few ticks above or below a particular level, but letting that to users own judgment. For example, yesterday I was trying to buy back NVAX at $2.55 during that morning sell off.

Standby re-entry plan:
Buy NVAX again near $4.60

Best regards,

[ScottishTrader]

Strong day for NVAX - just sold 20% @5.39, as per my plan, gain of 13.5% 

[setravis]

Stock gets a pop every time there's a bird flu story.
Chart still looking nice....Biotechnology & Drugs  (15 new highs today)
Nice push to the upside off the 200-day MA.
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Bullish
Nov-15-2006 Bullish Engulfing 

Support @ $5.26...4.69...4.58
Resistance @ $5.40...5.55...6.25

52wk Range: 2.84 - 8.39
Volume: 3,924,057
Avg Vol (3m): 1,341,620

Technicals
MACD is Very Bullish
Stochastic is Very Bullish
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
13.25%above 13-day MA
24.05%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $224.58 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 03/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform

Below are the 6 Month and 1 Year Charts.

[mitchjas]

Scottish trader - curious, how did you pick 5.39 as you profit taking target?

Was it because of the resistance level and double top from June? See my chart.

What if it busts through that soon?

Thanks!

Jason

[ScottishTrader]

Jason,

exactly - I was simply anticipating resistance kicking in around there as it was previous resistance.  I only sold 20%, but am working more towards a profit-taking strategy so I can lock in small gains to cusion the rest off my position (something Melf taught me...) - take profits when targets get MADE, however you determine your targets.  Next target that I see is the small ascending triangle target at 5.59.  I'm not totally sure if I will take further profits if we hit that yet.  It depends on the action leading up to it.  The longer term pattern appears to have a target around 6.50 thoough.

For me if we clear 5.40-5.50 resistance, then 6.00 shouldn't be too far away, I think that it could be tough to clear, and that is probably where I will aim to close my position.

[mitchjas]

Thanks ScottishTrader,

That helps.  As far as current support - do you agree that some support is now at about 4.9 - ie at the previous resistance for several days? 

By the way, the weekly chart looks great.     

Regards,
Jason

[ScottishTrader]

yep,  my stop is just below that level... please don't hit it!!!

[ScottishTrader]

sorry, I would have updated this yesterday but 3sof was down.

Sold the rest of my NVAX shares at 5.31, on the break of the ascending trendline in blue on the 30min chart.  11.5% profit on the remainder of my postion.  Thought it was shaping up for a nice upside breakout, but looks like the 5.40 was too strong this time.  I may re-enter close to $5.

good luck mitchjas if you're still holding

[la-onda]

probably today is time to buy again....

Novavax Files $100 Million Shelf Registration Statement
Wednesday November 22, 8:36 am ET

MALVERN, Pa., Nov. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) today announced that it has filed a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). Once declared effective by the SEC, this registration statement will enable Novavax to sell from time to time, in one or more separate offerings, up to $100 million of its securities, which may consist of common stock, preferred stock, warrants, or any combination thereof. The registration statement carries forward $42 million of securities unissued under Novavax's December 2005 registration statement. While the company has no current plans to access the capital markets, the shelf registration statement, once declared effective by the SEC, will allow the Board of Directors of Novavax to expediently approve for the Company to access the capital markets in the future.


A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any state. At the time any securities are offered for sale, a prospectus supplement will be provided containing specific information about the securities to be offered and the terms of the offering made.

[mitchjas]

ScottishTrader - I am still holding.  Any thoughts on what the $100 million shefl registration will do short term?

Thanks,
Jason

[mitchjas]

Don't know what this will do - so I sold for a 7% profit.  Not going to risk a loss.

Good trading on your part ScottishTrader!   


Jason