NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[422fwhp]

NEWS!

Novavax and Collaborators Significantly Improve VLP Vaccine for HIV/AIDS
Tuesday January 16, 11:42 am ET 
Plans Under Way to Advance New Vaccine Into Clinical Testing

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/phtu038.html?.v=72

lotta volume intraday

[la-onda]

nice news, nice chart 

[Michael]

nice news, nice chart 

Indeed great news! A vaccine against AIDS is however a few years a way but the flu season is just around the corner.

I am using today's weakness as a buying opportunity.

[cumulina]

Heads up! NVAX up 14% on huge volume after hours....

[Michael]

More good news from Novavax. This time from the Bird Flu front:

New Data Support Novavax's Pandemic Flu Vaccines
Monday January 22, 4:25 pm ET 


BALTIMORE, Jan. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc.'s (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) novel virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines have been shown to be effective in generating protection against pandemic influenza as well as cross protection against different strains of the virus in pre-clinical studies, according to data presented here today at the Phacilitate Vaccine Forum.

"These are the first live-virus challenge data we have presented," said Dr. Rick Bright, Novavax's Vice President of Global Influenza Programs. "These new data are exciting because not only do our VLP vaccines trigger a robust immune response, but we have shown that a single vaccine can protect against two different strains of pandemic influenza."

The studies involved two of Novavax's H5N1 influenza VLP vaccines - one targeting the Indonesia strain of pandemic flu, first identified in 2005, and another targeting the Viet Nam strain, identified in 2003.

Both mice and ferrets inoculated with the Indonesia VLP vaccine showed a robust immune response in the study. When challenged with both the Indonesia and Viet Nam strains, the animals were protected against both viruses.

The ferret is the most relevant animal model for influenza because ferrets exhibit similar clinical symptoms as humans and are naturally susceptible to most human influenza viruses, including H5N1. "Ferrets are the most predictive model used for evidence of immunogenicity of influenza vaccines for humans," Dr. Bright said.

In addition, Novavax has shown that mice inoculated with the Viet Nam strain of the company's VLP vaccine were protected from that strain as well as from the Indonesian strain of pandemic influenza.

"These new data give us more confidence as we prepare to enter human clinical trials with our pandemic vaccine later this year," Dr. Bright said. "We also are increasingly confident about our ability to generate similar results in our seasonal influenza vaccine program as it progresses in pre-clinical testing."

The challenge studies were conducted in collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh, and the data have been submitted for peer-review publication. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will conduct live challenge studies using Novavax's VLP pandemic influenza vaccines.

"We expect the CDC to further confirm these new data before we enter the clinic this year," Dr. Bright said.

It seems the world conveniently has forgot about Bird Flu this year but the Virus is still posing a very real threat. I will not post link to recent outbreak of Bird Flu but would urge everybody to search Google news from time to time to get a feel about what is happening just below the surface.

If you do that you will see that a couple of new strains has been discovered within the last weeks. None of them seems to be Pandemic but one seems to be resistance against Tamiflu. There are also reports of Cat populations being infected (interesting as cats are genetically more similar to humans than birds).

Finally here is a link to a report predicting the result of a Bird Flu epidemic: http://www.plos.org/press/plme-04-01-vespignani.pdf

Don't start reading this unless you are serious about DD 

The premise of this study is that it will take 6 to 8 months to develop an effective vaccine. This is true with conventional vaccine development but Novavax can hopefully cut this time if worse come to worse.

As David would say: I will continue to hold NVAX 

[Melf Elf]

Heads up! NVAX up 14% on huge volume after hours....

cumulina,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

Too bad that it didn't come out a month ago, prior to NVAX having a TRIPLE breakdown at 4.72.

NVAX closed at 4.09, so a 14% gain at this mornings open would put it at 4.66, right below the 4.72 breakdown number.

Last week, when NVAX rallied, it failed at 4.71, right at that resistance.

The Kumo (Cloud) overhead resistance is at 4.7025 and 4.725.

So, some serious resistance at 4.70 - 4.72.  A 14% gap up opening to 4.66 looks marked for a "Gap To Crap," so it would be impressive if NVAX can do anything more than the 4.70-4.72, and close there.

[Melf Elf]

So, some serious resistance at 4.70 - 4.72.  A 14% gap up opening to 4.66 looks marked for a "Gap To Crap,"

The traders paying 4.70 - 4.72 for NVAX in after hours, when the stock was up 14%, got the worst of the "Gap To Crap."  They bought it at TRIPLE breakdown resistance, and they're now down 11% in the position, on paper.

This morning's "Gap To Crap" was much less dramatic.  Big volume in the first minute of trading,  then another little volume spike, then NVAX ran out of gas.

4.27 - 4.26 was brief support in the 1-Minute chart, then volume came in again when that support got broken.

These are painful market lessons to learn, and they can be very costly:

1. "It isn't the news that matters.  It's the market's reaction to the news that matters."

so it would be impressive if NVAX can do anything more than the 4.70-4.72, and close there.

The market obviously isn't perceiving this as good news, or NVAX would have opened closer to where it traded in after hours, and players wouldn't be giving up their long positions so easily, in the first hour of trading.

2. "Don't buy a huge gap up into resistance."

Especially at TRIPLE breakdown resistance.  I doubt that anyone who impulsively bought NVAX at/near 4.70-4.72 in after hours on "good news" knew how much resistance was there.

NVAX here is a much, much better entry into the stock.

3. When there's "good news" on the fundamentals, but the technicals disagree, at least consider paying attention to the technicals.

A 14% gap up in after hours on "good news," into TRIPLE resistance? 

We probably want to pass on that trade.  Or, short it, which I would imagine the technicians did in after hours.  We aren't favored coming in and making a move against the trend in the market/stock.

In these situations, I never used to have a clue about what was going on, and was left wondering, "What the heck happened.?  I thought that this was good news!"

 

I hope that this helps to explain the "Gap To Crap" reaction to "good news."

[Michael]

It seems the world conveniently has forgot about Bird Flu this year but the Virus is still posing a very real threat. I will not post link to recent outbreak of Bird Flu but would urge everybody to search Google news from time to time to get a feel about what is happening just below the surface.

The leading experts from US, China and WHO are meeting in Beijing and here is their assessment (please read careful!):

China meeting warns of bird flu mutation risk
Mon 29 Jan 2007 9:45 PM ET

BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The deadly H5N1 form of the bird flu virus is rapidly mutating and the world must be on guard even though the disease has yet to be transmitted between humans, experts told a meeting in Beijing, Chinese media said on Tuesday.

The closed door conference, attended by experts from the Chinese and U.S. centres for disease control and the World Health Organisation among others, opened on Monday, the official newspaper of the Chinese Health Ministry reported.

"The experts said that despite there being no evidence yet of human-to-human transmission of bird flu, the highly pathogenic H5N1 form of the virus is continuing to rapidly mutate, and human infections keep happening," the Health News reported.

"H5N1 is a virus that has the potential for mass transmission, and people cannot slacken off in their control efforts," it added in a front-page story.

The report provided no other details, except that the meeting will discuss bird flu vaccines.

The virus has killed 164 people since 2003, according to the WHO.

"These might not be large numbers but we cannot let that lull us into a false security," Henk Bekedam, the WHO's representative in China, said in a speech at the meeting, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters on Tuesday.

"Right now, a growing public health challenge is overcoming effects of 'bird flu fatigue'," he said.

"Just because an avian influenza pandemic has not hit, or because there is lower media coverage at times, does not mean the very real and ongoing threat of one has gone away," Bekedam added.

"Right now, the H5N1 virus does not transfer easily from animals to humans or from humans to humans. But that could change at any moment and we must prepare for that possibility."

The H5N1 virus remains mainly a virus of birds, but experts fear it could change into a form easily transmitted from person to person and sweep the world, killing millions within weeks or months.

So far, most human cases can be traced to direct or indirect contact with infected birds.

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=PEK200089&WTmodLoc=IntNewsHome_C4_Crises-6

I remember WHO last year said that it is not a matter if but when H5N1 mutate to a strain that can transmit from Human to Human. I hope it will not be this year but I would for sure like to hold a few Bird Flu stock (and non more than NVAX) when it happens.

Just because the media has been hit by 'bird flu fatigue' doesn't mean that the threat has disappeared. It basically means that you can buy most Bird Flu stock without any speculation premium. In fact a stock like NVAX is trading at what I consider to be their fundamental value based on the prospects of their Pipeline.

I already have a nice little profit on NVAX but I could end up with a substantial gain with a very limited downside 

[Michael]

Hmmm... Bird Flu certainly came into the spot light again this weekend with the outbreak in UK.

From a pandemic point of view this is a non event. Any pandemic is very unlikely to start in Western Europe or US but most likely in Asia or Africa.

But that doesn't really matter. What is important is that the world once again focus on the potential threat of Bird Flu.

I do not recommend anybody to rush out and buy Bird Flu stocks in the premarket tomorrow but I do recommend everybody to have some Bird Flu exposure in the months to come. Not only as a speculative investment but also as a hedge if the Bird Flu becomes Pandemic. This will most likely spark a major correction in the stock markets and one or two Bird Flu stocks is a nice safety net 

[Melf Elf]

After the DOUBLE pattern breakdown in mid-December, 2006 (the Bearish Rising Wedge, in blue, and the Symmetrical Triangle, in black), NVAX has failed twice to get back through that breakdown resistance: on January 16, and on theJanuary 22 - 23 after market and pre-market "Gap To Crap" on news (see last two posts above, if interested).

NVAX has fallen 20% from those two failed attempts at resistance, but now has the chance of a Double Bottom here, at 3.67 and 3.68 (drawn at the bottom of this chart).

The key to a Double Bottom, or "W"- Bottom, is the middle of the "W," which in this case, also is Key Resistance, 4.71.  That's where the Bearish Rising Wedge broke down in December, and that's were the two rally attempts failed in January.

If NVAX can take out 4.71, that would put a target of 5.74 IN PLAY.

Math:

4.71 - The "W" pivot.

3.68 - The more conservative of the 3.67 and 3.68 lows

4.71 - 3.68 = 1.03 points + 4.71 = Target: 5.74.

Friday's candle missed being a perfect Bullish Hammer by only one penny.  The real body is six cents; the tail is eleven cents, so almost twice as long as the real body.  That's "close enough" in my book to qualify as a Bullish Hammer.  No need to quibble about it, because the important thing here is that NVAX follows through to the upside now, and doesn't take out the 3.67 - 3.68 Double Bottom to the downside.

Decent risk:reward on a buy here, always excluding a gap down below 3.67 - 3.68 support.

[Doc]

Greetings

I've been lurking for a while around here, this is my first post.
Melf, I like your posts and graphs (not just in this case).

I'd like to point that if one is considering a rising wedge, well, it's target is at least the start,  in this case 2.84...On the other hand, if one considers not  a rising wedge but a rising channel then it's break target would be around where we are now, I think.

Probably will move up from here as indicators are oversold; it needs to clear a short time resistance at around 4.00 to really show it can move higher.
This is my view.

Regards
Doc

[Melf Elf]

Greetings

I've been lurking for a while around here, this is my first post.
Melf, I like your posts and graphs (not just in this case).

Doc,

Thank you, and welcome to 3SOF!

I'd like to point that if one is considering a rising wedge, well, it's target is at least the start,  in this case 2.84...On the other hand, if one considers not  a rising wedge but a rising channel then it's break target would be around where we are now, I think.

Right.   As I explained in a prior post, the Bearish Rising Wedge in blue "morphed," or "changed into" a Rising Channel (dotted blue line in the daily chart).   That pattern then morphed into the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black).

The Symmetrical Triangle broke at 4.82, and the 4.09 target MADE very quickly.

The Rising Channel broke at 4.72.

Probably will move up from here as indicators are oversold; it needs to clear a short time resistance at around 4.00 to really show it can move higher.
This is my view.

Typically, we don't want to see more than .618 of a rally get retraced.   Some analysts prefer the more obsure .764 and .786 retracements.  NVAX retraced about 80% of August - November rally, so that hurts upside prospects a bit, technically, and it could have some problems, even if only short-term, at your 4.00.

A near-term positive is the fact that NVAX just printed 4.87, which is a penny above Friday's high.   It's pulled back from there, but that's at least a step in the right direction.  It's at least trying to make something out of this "possible" Double bottom.

[Melf Elf]

NVAX retraced about 80% of August - November rally, so that hurts upside prospects a bit, technically, and it could have some problems, even if only short-term, at your 4.00.

Doc,

Sorry, I told you wrong.

I checked that again.  NVAX gave back 68.5% of the August - November rally, which still is more than I like to see, but it wasn't as bad as I initially thought.

[Melf Elf]

NVAX is called higher this morning, at BID 4.04...ASK 4.05, on this news:

ROCKVILLE, Md., Feb. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) seasonal influenza vaccine produced robust and broad immune responses compared to other influenza vaccine types, according to a pre- clinical study published in the journal "Vaccine."

In the study, which appears in the online edition of the peer-reviewed journal "Vaccine," mice and ferrets were inoculated with Novavax's virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine. The VLP vaccine produced antibody responses that were between 1.8 and 7.4 times greater than antibody responses triggered by the comparator vaccines.

There remains an unmet medical need for more effective influenza vaccines. Traditional vaccines, which produce antibodies to the viral protein hemagglutinin, are effective in healthy adults but provide only limited protection among high-risk populations such as the elderly and patients with compromised immune systems. According to the study, Novavax's influenza vaccine triggered neutralizing antibodies against hemagglutinin. Novavax's VLP vaccine also produced antibodies against neuraminidase, which could lead to broader protection against viruses that mutate from season to season.

In both mice and ferrets, Novavax's H3N2 VLP vaccine raised antibodies against the 2002 Fujian strain of influenza as well as a broad group of seasonal flu viruses that had mutated over a five-year period. It is because of these annual mutations that traditional flu vaccines must be reformulated each year.

"The ability to elicit a broadly reactive immune response by a single vaccine against viruses from different flu seasons is an important advance," said Dr. Ted Ross, co-author and Assistant Professor of Medicine and Principal Investigator in the Center for Vaccine Research at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. "These results have implications not only for seasonal influenza, but also for emerging influenza strains with pandemic potential."

[Doc]

Well, the first assault was repelled.
Even if the volume is thinning going down, it'd better start moving up, or else...

Keeping an eye on it.