CKCM

[logocovet]

I originally bought this on Michael's DD.  Let it go as it fell over 8% from my buy price.  Back in now.  Shorts should start to cover as earnings are close (message board @ yahoo is also filled with messages from shorts (supposedly) about whether or not to cover). 

One question for Michael: I read your post often and notice that you haven't metioned BNT (your favoirte biotech) recently.  You mostly write about AOB and SVA (hold both too).  Do you still hold BNT?

Thanks,
Logocovet

[ScottishTrader]

nice move yesterday and today - a definiite confirmation that 13.52 was the short term bottom, for now at least.  If there is a covering spree into earnings, this cold do quite well.  I may checki it out at the open.

Nice one to all in here, and of course to Melff Elf for his analysis

[KCScott]

I got in CKCM at 14.70 monday - Nice gap up this morning on the 8K and this news:


Lockheed Martin Unit Expands Use of Click Commerce Solution
Thursday October 20, 9:15 am ET 
Advanced Inventory Optimization Solution Supports Nation's Aerospace and Defense Sectors


CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 20, 2005--Click Commerce, Inc. (Nasdaq:CKCM - News), a leading provider of collaborative commerce solutions and a pioneer in the software as a service (SaaS) industry, today announced that Lockheed Martin's (NYSE:LMT - News) Maritime Systems & Sensors business will upgrade to the latest version of the company's Service Parts Optimization (SPO) solution, which was recently acquired from Xelus.
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After a market evaluation of advanced inventory optimization solutions in the service supply chain space, Lockheed Martin selected Click Commerce for the depth and breadth of its solution.

"The ability to get any part anywhere in the world when it is needed is a strategic military advantage," said Nancy Koenig, executive vice president of operations for Click Commerce. "Lockheed Martin's continued partnership with Click Commerce confirms the strength of our service parts optimization solution, and we are proud to help them fulfill the growing needs of the U.S. government and the commercial sector."

Lockheed Martin is engaged in several Performance Based Logistics (PBL) contracts for the U.S. Department of Defense. PBL contracts are awarded to logistics suppliers in exchange for guaranteed availability and competitive pricing. Click's advanced SPO functionality uniquely positions Lockheed Martin to support the DoD's demand for constant readiness of their weapons systems.

[logocovet]

This is an article about Alien Technology dropping the price of its RFID tags to 12.9 cents.  As Michael described in his original introduction, the relative high cost of RFID tags has up until now prevented mass adaptation.  This barrier is quickly fading away.

http://www.rfidjournal.com/article/articleview/1870/1/1/


Another problem that is being solved is that of "collision."  Previously, RFID scanners could not tell one tag from a bunch of tags.  Atmel (a previous 3SOF pick) has developed technology to remedy this problem.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050927/sftu002.html?.v=23

All ofthis bodes well for companies like CKCM.   

[KCScott]

Bump

Up 9.41% today

[LuckyFish]

Buyins.net has the squeeze trigger at 18.36, and with earnings coming out Nov 3, I hope to see a nice increase in price.  Do you think shorts are covering?
Brigitte

[KCScott]

Buyins.net has the squeeze trigger at 18.36, and with earnings coming out Nov 3, I hope to see a nice increase in price.  Do you think shorts are covering?
Brigitte

Read my earlier post - CKCM has risen 24% in 8 trading days since I bought it.

Shorts are covering - But looking at volume, a lot of new money is coming in as well

[la-onda]

ON FIRE !!!! 
congrats to Michael and all other longs

Click Commerce Reports Q3 2005 Non-GAAP EPS of 40 cents, GAAP EPS of 31 cents
Thursday November 3, 9:00 am ET
Company Posts Record Profits and Revenues

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 3, 2005--Click Commerce, Inc. (Nasdaq:CKCM - News), a provider of on-demand collaborative commerce solutions, today announced record results for its third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2005.

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Total third quarter 2005 revenues were $16.2 million, representing a 130% growth over third quarter 2004 revenue of $7.0 million. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding certain charges as described below, net income was $4.9 million, or $0.40 per share on a diluted basis. This represents an improvement of approximately $3.3 million over Q3 2004's non-GAAP net income of $1.6 million, an increase of 200%. On a GAAP basis, net income was $3.8 million, or $0.31 per share, an improvement of approximately $2.4 million over the third quarter of 2004's net income of $1.4 million, an increase of 176%. The Company's third quarter results represent its ninth consecutive profitable quarter, with a non-GAAP profit margin of 30% in the third quarter. GAAP profit margins were 23% in the third quarter.

The Company's third quarter results include a $0.15 million non-recurring charge related to certain leasehold improvements that were abandoned as part of the Company's relocation of its Chicago corporate headquarters.

The Company's cash and cash equivalents were $11.1 million as of the third quarter compared to $11.8 million at the end of the second quarter. Cash flows from operations in the quarter were a net use of $0.4 million. This amount includes third quarter net reductions in accounts payable and accruals of $1.8 million, primarily from cash outlays related to liabilities assumed in the Company's acquisitions in the first half of 2005. Accounts receivable increased from the second quarter by $0.6 million to $16.5 million due to increased revenue in the third quarter, while days sales outstanding decreased during this period by 15 days to 93 days. Deferred revenue was $11.0 million as of Sept. 30, 2005, a decrease of $1.0 million from the end of the second quarter as a result of normal calendar year-based renewal cycles.

[Melf Elf]

Valueseeker, KCScott, Scotsman, and LuckyFish (Brigitte)

Nice job on CKCM.  Applause to all of you.

Since the company does not provide earning guidance, I don't think the shorts want to take the risk of CKCM releasing a great earning like they had 6 months ago and pps shot up 80% in a few days after the earning.

You sure got that right, Valueseeker!  

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:CKCM&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

[ScottishTrader]

Unbelievable

Just a shame I didn'/t get in when we were discussing this one, around $15, but congrats to all who were in and held through, I think CKCM should see higher highs from here on!!

[LuckyFish]

I'm happy!!!
Congrats to anyone still in this one, and special thanks to Michael for bringing it up in the first place!
Brigitte

[Michael]

Hi Brigitte

Great to see that you had patience to wait for the earnings. I thought I was the only one left! Good to see that Scottistrader, KCScott and Louis also are making a killing here!

Clickcommerce grew their earnings with 176% and with the latest orders from the USAF and Lockheed Martin I don't see any reasons why they will not continue to grow the bottom line. Symbol (and I am not talking about the POP star previously known as Prince  ) did also post great results today confirming the strength of the RFID SW sector.

So how do you evaluate a company in one of the most explosive sectors in the world with a quite strong growth (don't need to exaggerate here!) Well according to the market CKCM should trade at a PE around 20.

I know that the market is always right but right now the market is short 2.7million shares and let me be absolutely clear. Those people who shorted CKCM were WRONG and will have to cover at higher prices.

1.3 million shares traded until now. Probably half of this is short covering so we still have more than 2 million shares to provide a nice support for the stock! We will se a lot of damage control in the coming days but for the patient investor there is still alot of potential here.

Mike

[Michael]

As an aside, from a technician's point of view, it really was fun to see the "Nonexistent Right Shoulder" theory play out with such exactitude (very rare).  I wish that I could remember the author's name, so that I could give him credit.  I read it years ago.

The theory is that the stock is in such a hurry to get to the target, it doesn't bother to stop and build a right shoulder. 

Melf Elf,

It seems we missed another shoulder in the inverse head and shoulder formation. What is your TA take on the chart?

Mike

[KCScott]

Cool beans!

Sold 1,000 at 23.70 early before my meeting, saw it finished at 20.97 and ECN is now showing 21.90.

I haven't heard the CC yet, but from what I read they didn't update guidance.


My take is we'll see similar action to today - Gap up to 23 again, then minor pullbacks through end of day.

This may sound crazy, but I still think we could see large blocks shorted to drop the buy in price for the shorts to cover. That could set up a G pattern when this makes the big push.

I'll look for another buy in late in the day tomorrow targeting 19.50-20.97 depending on the volume and movement.


Or maybe I'll just buy more EYII 

[Melf Elf]

[Melf Elf,
It seems we missed another shoulder in the inverse head and shoulder formation. What is your TA take on the chart?

Mike,

This one was in more of a hurry to complete than the last one.  The neckline breakout was Monday, October 31.  Re-test of the neckline the next day.  Up on Wednesday, then....BANG!  Target of  c. 23.48 made right at yesterday's open, which was 23.53. 

I didn't take the time to calculate that target exactly since its a fait accompli, but it's within a few pennies.