SUPG

[David Randolph]

SuperGen, Inc. (SUPG). The Group's principal activity is to develop and commercialize therapies for solid tumors, hematological malignancies and blood disorders.

Let us see the all history chart:



And the short term chart:



We have a descending trendline breakout and a white marubozu with above average volume. I'm expecting this technical signal to produce some results in the short term, so I'll buy SUPG at today's open.

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[saffeysite1]

Good one.  Had this on watch.  Should be a nice play.

[David Randolph]

... for her to slowly but surely get to the gap zone. Let's see if the stock accomplishes her mission.

[David Randolph]

There was no technical damage to the chart over the last few days, but I don't want to see SUPG closing below $4.89. If something like that happens, the «simple breakout» that I was talking about turns into a «false breakout» and that usually leads to great downward movements.

[David Randolph]

... not closing below $4.89, she closed just at that price !

I'll have no mercy with this stock if she's set to close below this floor level because that would tell me a false breakout did happen.

[kfy168]

It seems that it will continue to go down for short term (days).  However, for long term (weeks), it still have a chance to go up.  What do you think we shhould do about this stock?  Obviously, I loaded it up when you recommended it.

[David Randolph]

... but I see now that SUPG did made a false breakout. I'm selling the next open never mind what price it will be - it's a matter of discipline.

Perhaps the stock is just pulling back to that descending trendline before it actually moves higher but I'm not willing to pay to see what happens. The fact that one stock is x% below my buying point is a reason to sell and no other is necessary.

Cut the losses short, let your profits run - there's no mystery to it but it seems so hard to do it. Like Livermore said, you must fear your losses wide and hope your profits grow, which is contrary to human nature.

I believe it is a lot easier to sell a losing stock when you're absolute confident you'll replace it with a winning stock. And there are thousands of stocks to consider and hundreds of them will rise, some will rise beyond our dreams.

[kfy168]

Wise decision.  I'll do the same.

[David Randolph]

Wise decision.  I'll do the same.

Well, it wasn't so wise after all 

Off course, a man always needs to have discipline and follow a strategy and I did that, so I was right. But SUPG did rise a lot and effectively it came up to fill the big gap, as I was expecting on the initial recommendation of the stock.

In fact I said this:

... for her to slowly but surely get to the gap zone. Let's see if the stock accomplishes her mission.

The stock did accomplish the mission, but without me on board