FLYIQ

[David Randolph]

Atlantic Coast Airlines Holdings, Inc. (FLYI)

This stock has been on a freefall for the last few years:



But now we have one lovely volume pattern and two white candles:



The high of the day was $1.04, which was the low of that horrible red candle back in October. The stock has retreated a bit because of that short term resistance in today's session.

That leaves a considerable higher shadow which will probably prevent FLYI to gap higher tomorrow. I prefer to buy the open when this happens. I don't know if the stock has enough demand behind it to cross the $1.04 barrier, but I will pay to see.

If it fails, I'll dump it. If it closes above 1.04, it will sky rocket to the moon in the short term.

So, this trade will be fast. I'll buy at the open tomorrow and if close<1.04=> SELL. If close>1.04=> HOLD

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David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org

[helgeju]

Results coming today, and the last two days runup could be expectations. Then usually a stock is falling afterwards. I think FLYI could fall after results, no time set today.

[David Randolph]

Yes, results are coming at 2 pm Eastern. Expectations can't be great, because the stock has fallen so much over the last few months.

Maybe the market knows something we don't. But I've designed a simple trading plan: with this kind of pattern, FLYI must take off right away. If it stares at $1.04, if it stops climbing or falls today, all the momentum is lost and a short term trader must get out.

This is a risky trade, I'm placing just 6.6% of my capital in this (as in all other stocks I own).

What you're talking about is a «buy the rumor, sell the fact» thing. In this case, I believe what happened was «sell the rumor, buy the news», but two days before news no one was still willing to sell the rumor and short covering started.

I believe results will be bad and the stock goes up anyway.

Thank you for your post, nice info

[David Randolph]

The stock failed to take off and slumped. My initial plan was:

«So, this trade will be fast. I'll buy at the open tomorrow and if close<1.04=> SELL. If close>1.04=> HOLD»

So I had to sell FLYI at the close, price $0.83. That resistance at $1.04 knocked the stock. Bad pick, bad trade. Admit the mistake, correct it by selling the stock and move on. The market will always be there and preservation of capital is the first goal of any trader.

 

[David Randolph]

FLYI is a small airline, but no so small as its market cap, I believe. You can knowledge more about the company at its website: www.flyi.com

I did invest in FLYI in the beginning of 3 Stocks on Fire and took a 9.8% loss in it. But I show no resentment toward the stock and I really have no problem about buying it again, even at a higher price (I prefer to buy at a higher price, as silly as it may appear).

You know this stock is down 97% from its all time high set on January 2002 around $30. When a stock is down like this I believe any positive fundamental development gives room for a mighty powerful advance.

If you dig a bit through the last news and the company's website you'll find that the number of passengers carried trough Independent Air is growing rapidly.

Technically the chart is screaming for a bull run, look at it:



If FLYI breaks trough the $1.04 significant resistance level you can't imagine what kind of short covering and momentum players will kick in. I believe this is the time for FLYI to fly above that level and bring in new and enthusiastic buyers.


Everyday I will analyze FLYI after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.

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[stocky]

Are you going to buy FLYI at the open on Monday or wait till 1.05 is crosses?

[David Randolph]

I'm not waiting for the stock to cross $1.04. But I still don't know if I'll buy the open, I probably will. I'll answer this post saying the price of the purchase immediately after I make it (but, as said and as usual, I'll probably buy at the open).

[the mo]

Glad to see FLYI made the en fuego list. I also liked the tech action and bought some on friday.  Like you gents, I think this thing may have a potential back up to the 2.00 -2.50 area. I am also encouraged by a few things being thrown around the message boards-1. increasing load factor 49 % in jan, 73 % may, and > 90% in june?- postings like this from a fellow who says he flys for them (hard to know if believable but sounds convincing) seem to tell a good story
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7080850&tid=acai&sid=7080850&mid=47551   
2. Fare increases at the biggies like nwa ,delta and other make the discounters seem even more attractive.
3.Rumors that they are expanding into Texas-potentially stealing some of Southwest's c ustomers by, buying space from american at dallas fort worth.
4. Rumors of Airbus deal to aquire more planes and potential expand internationally. not sure i am buying this rumor but a bit of talk about it.
5. a personal view that oil will pull back again as lack of rig damage from arlene and rains (reduced demand) blankets southeast -it's only trading down slightly now about 20cents in overnight session-(traded energy for 10yrs at several trading houses)
6. flown them from SFO shortly after they open on the West and really felt like i was on jblu-although had to pay for portable tv's $5-but had choice of 15 movies and huge selection of cable programming-actually prefer selection to jblu , staff trying very hard to please, and love that a discounter is at SFO not Oakland.
anyway good luck manana. I'll be buying on myself.

[David Randolph]

Bought FLYI @ $0.97

Now I'll put these positions on the homepage.

[David Randolph]

FLYI decisively above $1.04. First minor resistance only at $1.20 - $1.23. I'll update my analysis after the close.

[saffeysite1]

I [email protected] three weeks ago.  This company has a big hedge fund the owns a good chunk of it.  I new they wouldn't let it dump in the toilet.  It's time to fly!

[the mo]

hey fellas- like the bullish  volume confirmation (5.4mm) and how we poked thru 100 day ma. any thoughts?

[David Randolph]

FLYI did close above $1.04 so we have the potential for enormous short covering and technical buying in this stock. I believe fundamentals are atractive too. I don't know if some news came out but I see FLYI closed at $1.19 in the after hours, does anybody knows something?

Thanks !

[stocky]

Found the following link at the yahoo message board

http://www.negocios.pt/default.asp?SqlPage=Content_Empresas&CpContentId=260657&Sent=1&ListComment=1&CpMsgId=321478

But I am not sure whether its credible or another SCLN type hype.

I have a position in this stock.

[tommyt]

I 've been trying to buy this all day, kept raising my offer even in afterhours. Now I'm not going anywhere near it. I got burned with SCLN.  Thanks Stocky.