NWRE

[David Randolph]

We bought shares of NWRE at an average price of $15 for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. I have just 10 minutes to write this recommendation, so I'll go by topics:

1) The stock has risen so much over the last couple of days that it is obvious that market participants are seeing a great difference between the market value and the intrinsic value of this company.

2) This has happened because of the earnings release the company made on September 1st:

Neoware Reports Record Fiscal 2005 and Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings

I don't have time to explain further, only at my first update before tomorrow's open, but I believe this stock will trade above $22 in the next couple of weeks.

(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire, and he will update this analysis everyday after the close until he sells the stock. The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is up 148% since inception on 28th of April 2005. 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 3324 members exchange trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register and receive our free newsletter)

[David Randolph]

NWRE says this: "Neoware is delivering record revenues and profits, and we're seeing strong demand for our thin client solutions." so the stock price probably should be trading at a new all time high, right?

Well, it isn't, the all time high was set in 2002 and 2003 around $22 a share.

Other highlights:

«Based upon currently available information, the Company is updating its financial guidance for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2006 and the fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2005 as follows:

- Revenues for the year ending June 30, 2006 are projected to increase by
       approximately 30% or higher, compared to the prior fiscal year.

     - Revenues for the quarter ending September 30, 2005 are expected to be
       in the range of $22 to $24 million, depending on the timing of the
       shipment of individual orders, an increase of 35% to 47% compared to
       $16.3 million in the prior year first quarter.»

And ...

«"Neoware is increasing its revenue guidance for the September quarter due in part to significant initial orders from a major retailer for our newly released Neoware e900 thin client, which couples Neoware's innovative software and management tools with a wireless, hardened thin client platform targeted at retail distribution centers, as well as manufacturing, healthcare and transportation environments. »

I believe prices higher than $22 are on the short term horizon for NWRE.

[fantazia]

David, great pick! 

NWRE reminds me of CKCM when it had its powerful ascent in May 2005 on great earnings from below $10 to almost $30 a share. Good day to get some shares before the move higher.

[David Randolph]

I really have trouble looking for stocks over the intraday, I lack the skills or the tools to do it. If I could just update my Metastock database with intraday data in seconds, it would be a lot easier (I'll check if the e-Signal service does this, if it does, I'll subscribe, even though it costs $200 or $300 a month. Also I would need Metastock Pro, which costs about $1500, but that's nothing for gaining 1 day of advantage against other traders).

Ramsburg was looking for stocks while I went to pick my son at the crèche (do you guys say this? I saw it in the dictionary) and when I came back to the office he had 3 stocks for me to consider.

I looked at them from a technical and fundamental view and didn't like any of them, at least not enough to buy for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. I went looking for another, on websites and so and found this NWRE.

Conclusion, the three picks from Ramsburg went up, 2 of them went up a lot, and my pick fell 2%    So I said: «you're the best man to pick intraday, so tomorrow please pick one». And he got us IDSA, a wonderful pick where we have already a 12% open profit 

Anyway, I still like NWRE and I still think it will move to $22. Fundamentals are very attractive and technicals show an ascending trend. The only problem was that the rise was overextended on the short term, and profit taking kicked in. So, I'll keep on holding the stock.

[robt]

Most USAns do not say crèche, we say "day care" or "nursery" -- but it's a great word!

Great pick, next to DESC, my best performer for the day.

Do you and Ramsburg keep competitive statistics for your performance? I'd have a hard time guessing which of you have been the most helpful to me.

[David Randolph]

Most USAns do not say crèche, we say "day care" or "nursery" -- but it's a great word!

Great pick, next to DESC, my best performer for the day.

Do you and Ramsburg keep competitive statistics for your performance? I'd have a hard time guessing which of you have been the most helpful to me.

«Nursery»? How strange ... but thanks robt, learning a bit everyday 

Lol, no, we don't have competitive statistics, thanks for your nice words, you and others have been of great help too 

Looking at NWRE, nice white candle, it doesn't matter volume wasn't so great, this stock usually trades on low volumes and volume must be analyzed in relation with recent past (about 1 year).

For today I'll hold the stock, thinking about that $22 target. At the next update I will design a safety net for this trade too, we always need one to play safe in this risky business.

[David Randolph]

There were no new technical or fundamental developments on NWRE. I promised to deliver a safety net for this trade, as we always need to have, and I think that the ascdening trendline that was acting as resistance, may now act as support, like it usually happens.

So, the target for this trade is somewhere above $22, the risk is a close below the ascending trendline on the first chart below, that for today comes in at $13.70.

[David Randolph]

You see? You see? It was right !

Who would have thought that a stock that was up so much over the short term would still represent a safe and clean buying opportunity? It defies gravity, bullish stocks usually do that 

RULE 71 says: Whatever is Hard to Do in the Market is Generally the Right Thing; Whatever is Easy is Usually the Wrong Thing to Do

(I need to publish rules from 51 to 100 on the Members Board, I'll try to do that today. On that board you can read and study the first 50 trading rules).

Considering NWRE I'm looking for values above $20 to consider selling, fundamentals warrant a price above $22 as you can read on this thread.

[irod]

You rock David.

[metro]

Looks like ther first gap is at 15.20 = the stock has 3 gaps so at leaat one should fill

[David Randolph]

Looks like ther first gap is at 15.20 = the stock has 3 gaps so at leaat one should fill

You're right metro, it is very rare for a stock to go up leaving three gaps. Usually nothing sustains this kind of action. So at least this last one should be filled, and it will be so if we get $15.20 on print.

I'm not willing to allow much room to NWRE, I don't think it may go down much, but it can enter a consolidation phase after the strong run up we've had, and I don't want to hold it as it marks time. There are always horses running and I want to ride those, not the ones standing still in the boxes.

So, the plan for today is:

1) Hold if it is set to close above $15.20 (it was a short term resistance, now it should act as a support level.
2) Dump it if it is set to close below $15.20, short term momentum would be lost.

[David Randolph]

I sold NWRE at $15 yesterday, respecting the trading plan and RULE 4: Never Let a Profit Turn Into a Loss

(computer went down, connectivity is very low, unable to post updated chart)

[KCScott]

I'm still in NWRE - at $15.81 (Seems to be my story lately - Buy High & Sell Low  ) - Watching it move on 2x volume today I'm seeing some large lots being bought (15,000 just went for $15.32) and thinking the trees were being shaken.

Since $16 is the 52 week high, and it's getting within striking distance again, just wanted to give notice if anyone is interested.

[willey]

Hi,

NWRE is a high-probability trade to $22, I believe.  The NAZ is soon to rise significantly as the Dow breaks upward ( probably Wed., after the FED meeting ).  The country is going to be awash in $$$ from the FED liquidity infusion & from the insurance companies paying off on claims from Katrina.  The subsequent rebuilding efforts will propell many Dow stocks higher ( much higher & soon, IMO )  As the Dow goes, so too will the S&P & the NAZ.

hang-on, we're in for a heck of a ride!

:-)))

good fortune to U

Willie

[1reilly]

For those still long Nwre visit web site www.wallst.net  This site carries interviews with CEOs . Just type in symbol in the audio search box. There is a new interview with Nwre's Ceo. Also when you check out the site you will see a number of interviews with many stocks mentioned on David's stock picking board. Just another source of fundamental info. Hope you find it helpfull.