Scanning for a breakout

[drexler]

I'm starting this thread to address how to find a stock pre-breakout?

I've seen so many stocks that are flat for a long time, have a day with some volume action, and then explode the next day.  (usually I find them the day they are breaking out and it is risky to chase)

Elite, stocky or Rams, you guys have a preset screen or method you can share for finding these prior to the breakout day?

[gmarc66]

Great...i will definitely be watching for those picks!!

Good luck Drexler

julia

[stocky]

My favourite method is very simple:

Look for breakouts in stocks at/near 52 week high with above avg. volume. If you are following the market currently then VPHM [during good ol' days], HOM, AOB and other power movers are some examples.

Finding them early is indeed the tricky part but the price/volume/time trio can be very useful. Watchout NEXM tomorrow.

[OneStockMind]

Hi all.
I'm very interested in this topic.

Stocky, if NEXM has a breakout what is the technical target?
Good entry point?

[stocky]

Well I dont know about NEXM technical target, infact I hardly had time to analyse it. But the chart was a screaming buy. May be david can throw better light on it.

[stocky]

Ok found some pleasant surprise on NEXM:

Quoting Michael Ashbaugh  [the original link is here  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD079E5E4%2D1738%2D4DD3%2DB2B3%2D4B0EA12B90A0%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

=======================================================
Company Symbol Mon Close Support Resistance
NexMed NEXM $2.03 $1.85 New High

NexMed (NEXM: news, chart, profile) is a small-cap pharmaceutical firm that develops transdermal treatments designed to be absorbed through the skin.

From a technical standpoint, the shares are well positioned to rise.

Over the past six weeks, it has staged a sharp breakout, behind a sustained increase in volume. Monday, it made 52-week highs on its strongest volume in the sequence, leaving it well positioned to extend its uptrend.

[drexler]

Rams, Elite, setravis
can you fill us in on
1) some of the sites you use to scan your picks?
I know that stockcharts is one of them.

2) what you scan for and how you find your gems early in their run

if you could shed a little light on this for us, it would give us much more confidence in our picks and hopefully the rest of us could bring more picks and analysis to 3stocksonfire
TIA

[OneStockMind]

Hi folks.

I use stockconsultant.com to scan for potential breakouts.
I'm sure it's not 100% reliable (like anything else) but so far it did predict a couple of breakouts that I was watching so I give it a credit.
I'm not a subscriber so I can see only 4 at the time and it locks out after viewing 8 stocks in one day (locks out for a day).

It gave me a couple of breakout possibilities today and I picked out 2 that I will be watching:

1. DCEL, breakout > $8.35, target $10.06. (26.5%)
2. LNG, breakout > $40.97, target $46 (17.7%)

Hope this helps and looking forward to see what other people use.

[Waschbaer]

drexler –

I'm starting this thread to address how to find a stock pre-breakout?

With all due respect and in a genuinely friendly spirit, I think you're barking up the wrong tree. Trying to identify stocks before they breakout is not really necessary. It only looks necessary if you're thinking in terms of "anticipating" – if you're trying to anticipate market action because you don't want the train to leave the station without you. You want to catch a rocket just as it lifts off.

You are not the only one to make the following observation . . .

usually I find them the day they are breaking out and it is risky to chase

. . . and you're right on the money.

DCEL, OneStockMind's pick, is a perfect example.

DCEL Weekly




I'm not saying that DCEL won't breakout, and I'm certainly not saying it will. But why not simply wait and see?

It should be clear that a lot of broken hearts will become active at this level. DCEL has had a problem at c. 8.20 for three weeks running, and look at Jan. 2004..

Why not first see who prevails and then decide what to do? If the bulls can push through resistance and hold their ground, they'll still be plenty of time to enter long on a pullback -- on a test of the resistance level. If it doesn't pull back and gets away from you, so what? With 7500 odd stocks traded, do you have any idea how many are breaking out according to somebody's definition?

Tilt the odds in your favor: buy after breakouts when price trails off a little. If it doesn't pull back and won't let you get on board comfortably, screw it!

Trying to identify breakouts before they happen is just going to stress you out. Life is short. LOL

It's a perspective thing, savvy? Very good luck to you.

[drexler]

thanks for the input Waschbaer.

several traders (eliteg, setravis and others) come up with picks that either begin a large run, or are in a run and continue much higher

I'm just checking to see what sites some of the vets here use to come up with their picks and if they have any preset scans they can share with the group

[cumulina]

Hi, drexler.

May I suggest that you look at stock bought recently by insiders, and then keep an eye on them for a while?

I have tried doing just that, and that way found these...

In a couple of months the 10 best (ICCA, MKTY, MWY, EQTX, CPTS, CVST, NVD, CHK, BSKO, BBG) have gained from 54% to 21%.

Of these I hold only CHK. (+25.88%)

My list also have some terrible loosers, but I keep them on the list, so if they suddently take off, I won't miss it.

If the big winners were easy to find, we'd all be rich very quick...or would we?

Good hunting.

[Waschbaer]

Drexler, you may find the following information helpful. The best scans will be the ones you write yourself based on what you observe. Since Diane Kruger posted this material to a public forum, I feel comfortable re-posting it here. It's only fair that she receive credit for the content.

The development of a breakout
By Diane Krueger


Predicting the market's direction is difficult for all, but especially new traders. Trading breakouts can help beginners make successful and profitable moves. One catch - you've got to know how to use them or you'll suffer big losses.

For novice traders, using breakouts may seem like a piece of cake. Wait for the price to move up or down, then trade. However, trading breakouts requires more knowledge, patience and expertise than some traders think.

There are many ways to trade breakouts, but the concept remains the same. Breakouts generally involve a rise in a commodity's price above the major moving averages, a resistance level, usually its previous high, or a drop below a support level, its previous low. Support and resistance are important concepts for traders to understand when using breakouts. Support is a price level a commodity has difficulty falling below. In contrast, resistance is a price level a commodity has difficulty rising above. A breakout can occur after breaking an all-time high, also. Trading breakouts involves putting yourself in the direction of a trend. Therefore, because trends are temporary, it is important for traders to monitor price levels to trade with the trend and avoid losses.

An important point to remember when using breakouts, as a general rule, is volume picks up noticeably with the break of prices into a new trend or out of congestion. If the breakout is not accompanied by an increase in volume, it is likely to be a false breakout and prices will return to their previous levels quickly.

When there are more buyers than sellers and demand overwhelms supply, a bullish breakout should transpire. Bullish breakouts usually occur with significant increases in volume over average daily trading activity. Conversely, when there are more sellers than buyers and supply overwhelms demand, a bearish breakout should occur. Significant increases in volume for bearish breakouts also should take place.

Generally, it is a bad sign if a breakout is not accompanied by an increase in volume. Most breakouts normally are followed by an eventual pull back and test of the breakout point. It is important for traders not to buy or sell in the face of an immediate break in support or resistance levels because if the breakout is fleeting, prices will return to prior levels quickly. For example, if you felt the price at which you bought was extended from the breakout and you sold, you may want to re-enter if the retest of the breakout holds and price bounces on good volume.

"The primary advantage to buying or selling on a breakout is that it forces you to go with the trend and it forces you to wait for a trend to develop before entering," says Jay Kaeppel, director of research at Wheaton, Ill.-based Essex Trading Group and author of The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading. "While you may sometimes get into a trade late waiting for a breakout, you don't have to predict which direction the market is going or enter a trade and wait around hoping that the market will go in the direction you predicted. You simply wait for the market to tell you."



Confirmation tips

After breaking a support or resistance level, it's common for traders to question the new price levels. For example, after a breakout above a resistance level, buyers may question the validity of the new level and decide to sell. This creates a situation commonly referred to as trader's remorse.

Prices often return to a support or resistance level following a price breakout. Novice traders can get caught in the undertow of trader's remorse if caution is not taken. A seasoned trader may have noticed a lack of volume increase and decided to take his profits and run. While the new trader, not paying attention to volume levels, gets caught in the selling fury and suffers significant losses.

Breaking the levels of support or resistance can be triggered by a variety of factors that are above or below traders' expectations. Changes in earnings, management and competition can all contribute to a breakout. An informed trader needs to be familiar with and monitor the possible causes of a break in support or resistance levels.

"As with any trading method, there will be some false signals," says Rose Wang Chin, principal at New York-based Carat Capital LLC. "Also, breakouts may get you into a trade once the trend has been underway for a while. You may miss a portion of the move or get in just in time for a reversal."

Beware of those dangerous moves, echoes Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist at Sedona, Ariz.-based VRTrader.com. "False breakouts can create whipsaws. A key is determining ahead of time, as best as practicable, where you are in the move. A breakout near the top of a move, for example, especially accompanied by good news, might be a bull trap."

A good way to affirm your expectations following a breakout is to examine the volume associated with the price breakout. If prices break through support or resistance levels with a large increase in volume and the trader's remorse period is on relatively low volume, it implies that the new levels will remain.

Conversely, if the breakout is on moderate volume and the remorse period is on increased volume, it suggests traders are not confident with the new price levels and a return to previous levels occurs. Using filters, increasing the time frame before making the trade and using other forms of technical analysis may help to alleviate getting caught in a false breakout or being affected by trader's remorse.

"I usually buy in two stages," says Lawrence G. McMillan, president of Morristown, N.J.-based McMillan Analysis Corp. "I buy a half position when the futures trade at prices above resistance and complete the position by buying the other half if prices close above the breakout level that day. In this way, if it's a false breakout, you've only taken half a position."

Wang Chin suggests an idea used by professional traders: "Historically, breakout systems have been one of the better risk-adjusted technical trading systems. They result in the trader following the underlying trend, while avoiding some false movements in the markets."



Making the trade

There are several different ways to trade breakouts. Monitoring patterns within consolidations; tops and bottoms; highs and lows; moving averages; daily, weekly or monthly prices are just a few ways to look for breakouts. But, solely relying on one method can be harmful to a trader's financial health. As is the case with other forms of technical analysis, a variety of data needs to be collected and analyzed to make an informed trade.

"When trading breakouts, I don't use any particular system other than to note where prices have met resistance at least two times previously," McMillan says. "Then, any subsequent move above those resistance levels is an upside breakout. The more resistance that has built up preceding the breakout, the better I will like the breakout when it eventually occurs.

"On the other hand, if you don't notice the breakout until after it's already occurred, presumably the day after you spot the breakout on a chart, then I wouldn't chase it. I would attempt to buy it on a pullback to levels just above the breakout level."

The methods traders use for monitoring breakouts are a lot like snowflakes - no two are alike. Finding a method that you feel comfortable with and that actually works is a challenge for some traders. Because of the particular dynamics involved in trading breakouts, many traders have developed idiosyncratic signals or techniques that will alert them when a breakout occurs.

"I don't like buying or selling to enter a new trade based simply on when the market makes a new 10-day high, for example," Kaeppel says. "I prefer to buy or sell breakouts based on some multiple of the 10-day standard deviation of daily price movement or some multiple of the 10-day average daily range. Using these methods, the trigger points adjust automatically to current market conditions."

Breakouts provide traders with a place to set stops. For example, a short seller could set a buy stop above the market. This would limit the losses on short positions established under the assumption that selling pressure would limit price advances.

"I use trailing stops once the profits begin to accumulate. After the breakout, if the contracts move nicely higher, then I will begin using the 20-day simple moving average as a mental closing stop. This method automatically forces the trailing stop higher as prices continue to rise. Also, it's never a bad idea to take some partial profits along the way, to reduce your overall risk and to lock in some profits," McMillan says.

Although the methods may vary, the goal remains the same. To spot and profitably trade new breakouts is the desired objective for any trader. However, keeping your eyes on the prize can be difficult in the fast-paced and constantly changing world of breakouts.

Trading breakouts is not a walk in the park. Spotting breakouts before they occur is a difficult task. There are necessary precautions that need to be taken to stave off debilitating losses. A trader needs to have some type of stop-loss provision in place before trading breakouts. Because many breakouts fail, establishing a stop-loss provision can help cut your losses in the midst of a collapsing breakout.

"I would stop myself out if prices closed back below the breakout level," says McMillan. "That means it was a failed breakout."

Another disadvantage to using breakouts is slippage costs. The difference between the estimated and actual prices you pay and receive on your trades could be large with breakouts. "If you are doing large size it may be difficult to get filled at your stop price if you are buying into a strong new up trend or selling into a strong downtrend," Kaeppel says.

When trading breakouts, you nearly always start the trade with profits. The possibility of a lucrative payoff is what attracts some to trading breakouts. However, the momentum required to create the breakout may be fleeting and losses may ensue. Novice traders are not aware of the possible dangers that lurk around the corner. Whether the momentum carries through and creates profits is an uncertainty traders must be aware of when using breakouts.

Deciphering the difference between a real breakout and a false breakout is crucial for making successful trades. There are many factors that contribute to breakouts. Traders must be prepared and have done the homework to trade breakouts before they actually show up on charts.

Discipline is an important quality for any trader, but especially for one who trades breakouts. A trader needs to be patient and wait for the breakout to develop. Often times there are many false signals that may lead an unprepared trader in the wrong direction. Trading breakouts requires paying attention to the many factors that make up a breakout. Volume and the extent of the price movement must be considered carefully to determine that a breakout really has occurred. This is where the discipline is needed. When traders see price levels breaking resistance or support levels they must wait to see if it truly is a breakout.

"A lot of breakouts fail," Kaeppel says. "It takes a great deal of discipline to keep entering orders to buy on the next upside breakout when the last three upside breakouts failed and resulted in losses."