QLTI

[David Randolph]

Of course there's always a lot to say about each stock traded on the US exchanges, since information is vast. But we need to cut to the chase here, there are only a handful of motives why I believe QLTI made a short/medium term low today.

I will explain with the help of Metastock charts.

Here's the all history chart:



We can see the stock is pretty volatile.

Next chart will show us a prolonged downtrend which culminated with the stock gapping down to a 5 year low on the news that the CEO has resigned: QLT president and CEO Paul Hastings steps down



It looked like the captain was abandoning the ship that was about to sink. No hope whatsoever. Wait a minute: no hope? If there's no hope, if even the CEO leaves the company, then probably everybody that was willing to sell already sold ...

That's why we've had a strong rebound from the lows:



After a big gap down we've had another today, but then the stock rebounded. If the company was going so bad, the news that the CEO left can only be good news. Everything bad is priced in and probably this CEO news was already discounted, just look at the volume prior to the news.

I think at least a short term bottom is in and the stock will close the gap at $7.70-$8.25.

Therefore I will buy QLTI at tomorrow's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of the Portfolio, as usual.

www.3stocksonfire.org is a community of traders and investors. David Randolph manages two public portfolios there, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio and the 3 Pennies on Fire Portfolio. He updates the analysis of every holding of his portfolios everyday, so you can check here for updates on QLTI every single day. If you want to receive 3 Stocks on Fire newsletter and exchange trading ideas and stock picks on our message boards, please register, it takes only 10 seconds  

[rpccpa]

Stock definately has dived....


A little due diligence shows us that QTLI has one main drug product for Macular Degeneration....

Problem... In December 2005, GENZ is expecting FDA approval of a far superior drug for this disease... thus the dump in stock...

Lots of folks looking to scalp a bounce on this... be careful...

[SmartWrasse]

For a macular degeneration drug that will likely be approved you may be talking about Genaera?  GENR had a recent pop in Aug and fell back to just under $2.  There is a medical conference in Oct that it may have more exposure.  Looks like good potential in GENR.

[David Randolph]

I still think the departure of the CEO will lift these shares to at least close the gap at $8.25. Therefore I will continue holding QLTI.

[David Randolph]

Nice move on QLTI, that indeed was the bottom 

I'll be looking to sell if and when the gap at $8.25 is closed, I'm still not considering the downside, I believe all the bad news is out and the recovery will continue for the short term.

[David Randolph]

QLTI filed a form 8-K talking about its new CEO. Here's the man's experience:

«On September 26, 2005, QLT announced that Robert L. Butchofsky, QLT's senior vice president marketing and sales, had been elected acting Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. Robert L. Butchofsky joined QLT in 1998 as Associate Director, Ocular Marketing and was appointed Vice President, Marketing and Sales Planning in September 2001. Mr. Butchofsky was promoted to Senior Vice President, Marketing and Sales Planning in early March of this year. Mr. Butchofsky was responsible for the ongoing marketing of Visudyne as well as the potential creation of a specialty sales force to market new products currently in development. Prior to joining QLT, Mr. Butchofsky spent eight years at Allergan where he built an extensive background with ocular products and Botox(R), including sales, health economics, worldwide medical marketing, and product management. Prior to joining Allergan, Mr. Butchofsky spent several years managing clinical trials at the Institute for Biological Research and Development. Mr. Butchofsky holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Biology from the University of Texas and a Masters of Business Administration from Pepperdine University.»

Conventional wisdom would say that it is wise to have a sales and marketing person as the CEO, but I don't know, looking at the chart I see the stock losing momentum.

I'm a bit tempted to take a small profit on this one. But I won't, I'll design a plan that won't let me lose but allows me to stay with my initial proposal.

So here's the trading plan for tomorrow:

1) Take profits around $8.25 if I have that chance.
2) Sell if the stock hits $7.40, which was my purchase price, because I don't want to let a profit turn into a loss.

[David Randolph]

I'm a bit tempted to take a small profit on this one. But I won't, I'll design a plan that won't let me lose but allows me to stay with my initial proposal.

I will fall in temptation and sell QLTI today for a small profit. Here's why:

1) Volume is getting weaker on this short term advance phase and candlesticks are turning bearish.
2) The potential of the trade isn't much, so reward isn't big enough to support risk at this point.
3) I would like to improve the # wins/# losses ratio of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio. Until now I have 54 profits and 63 losses (so profitable trades are just 46%), I would like it to be at least 50% (though this isn't much important, since even losing more often than I win I have a 158% profit since April 2005).

So I will sell QLTI today at or around the open.

[ScottishTrader]

David,

I am still not sure why you decide to change your trading plan suddenly with some of your trades. 

I know it is only human, and that there are always external reasons and influences (as I have succumbed to many times) but the one thing I have learned from you, and I believe everyone here respects you for, is that you plan your trade and trade your plan.  A case in point is here, where for reasons largely related to how you want the protfolio to be perceived, you have traded out, and it has now broken resistance and is moving to fill the gap as you predicted.  I do understand that there were reasons related to the trade, i.e. volume, and the price stalling at the resistance level, but it doesn't seem consistent with your overall trading philosophy.

I only bring this up, as I was similarly confused by your sudden decision to exit all of your gold stocks after reiterating that you were long term bullish on gold, and all of the stocks appeared to be working within your plans for them.

Please don't take this too critically, as I am sure we have all done much the same, but sometimes I feel like these decisions are not fully explained.  I should probably also remember that the 3SOF portfolio is ultimately YOUR portfolio, and as a result, you have the right to make decisions for reasons that are outside of the technical trading plan.  The fact that many of us follow your trades doesn't mean that we are sheep and we should make our own decsions about when to trade in and out of stocks based on our own analysis.  In fact, this is what is so good about the 3SOF community is that for many of these stocks, the community continues to contribute analysis on closed trades that people continue to hold, and many of these have gone on to do very well.

Anyway, I just want to let you know that I very much appreciate what you are doing here, and I have learned a HUGE amount since I joined 3SOF a month and a half ago.  I'm very much looking forward to your next picks and seeing where we go from here.  Also, the website looks great and is MUCH faster, a huge improvement

Cheers,

the Scotsman

P.S. I did not buy QLTI, but was just following the thread, and this was an issue that had been rattling around in my head, that I felt liek I needed to mention 

[David Randolph]

I know it is only human, and that there are always external reasons and influences (as I have succumbed to many times) but the one thing I have learned from you, and I believe everyone here respects you for, is that you plan your trade and trade your plan.  A case in point is here, where for reasons largely related to how you want the portfolio to be perceived, you have traded out, and it has now broken resistance and is moving to fill the gap as you predicted.  I do understand that there were reasons related to the trade, i.e. volume, and the price stalling at the resistance level, but it doesn't seem consistent with your overall trading philosophy.

I plan the trade and trade the plan, but I have the flexibility to change the plan everyday if I please (but not intraday). Yes, QLTI may fill the gap, I hope so, but I was concerned with the position, reward didn't look high enough.

I only bring this up, as I was similarly confused by your sudden decision to exit all of your gold stocks after reiterating that you were long term bullish on gold, and all of the stocks appeared to be working within your plans for them.

My macroeconomic outlook changed so I changed my views on gold. Gold stocks are now lower than when I've sold them.

Please don't take this too critically, as I am sure we have all done much the same, but sometimes I feel like these decisions are not fully explained.  I should probably also remember that the 3SOF portfolio is ultimately YOUR portfolio, and as a result, you have the right to make decisions for reasons that are outside of the technical trading plan.  The fact that many of us follow your trades doesn't mean that we are sheep and we should make our own decisions about when to trade in and out of stocks based on our own analysis.  In fact, this is what is so good about the 3SOF community is that for many of these stocks, the community continues to contribute analysis on closed trades that people continue to hold, and many of these have gone on to do very well.

That's right. No problem at all with criticism, in fact, I appreciate it since I want to improve my trading and the 3 SOF overall service.

Anyway, I just want to let you know that I very much appreciate what you are doing here, and I have learned a HUGE amount since I joined 3SOF a month and a half ago.  I'm very much looking forward to your next picks and seeing where we go from here.  Also, the website looks great and is MUCH faster, a huge improvement Shocked

Great, thank you

P.S. I did not buy QLTI, but was just following the thread, and this was an issue that had been rattling around in my head, that I felt like I needed to mention

You did well. I'm looking to get better and better, knowing quite well that there's no such thing as a perfect speculator 

[setravis]

10:37AM QLT Inc announces "positive FDA action" on Aczone (QLTI) 2.74 +0.29 : Co announces it has completed its review of QLT USA, labeling supplement for Aczone and has removed the glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase screening and blood monitoring requirements. "We are extremely pleased to report the FDA decision to change the Aczone label as it validates QLT's clinical, regulatory and commercialization strategy for this product. Management believed in the product and took the necessary steps to address the FDA's needs, ultimately dramatically enhancing the value of Aczone,"




52wk Range: 2.42 - 8.40
Volume: 3,341,032
Avg Vol (3m): 622,621

Technicals
Record Price Low
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
20.18%above 13-day MA
0.19%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 16 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $182.82 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: 3.54 
Next Earnings: 04/22/2008
Last Analyst Rating: Above Average