FNSR - Sector: Technology - Industry: Communications Equipment

[AussieTrader]

One to watch, 'might' be shaping up to break trendline. Bottom of bollinger band bounce, has been creating higher highs and higher lows recently, which implies a move to about $1.35 or so. Also the 200ma's sitting at a key resistance area of $1.50 could also act as an upward magnet/target. Watch list for Tuesday.
Mike

[jpm]

wat's up?....big volume today...

humm....

[johnathanchill]

I think i got this watch from Aussie Trader. It is at a 52 Week low. Still learning charts so I was wondering if anyone would give their opinion of this stock. Is it a good time to buy or should we keep watching it.

Thanks,

[AussieTrader]

Hey Jonathan, yep FNSR I remember came up on a scan of mine a little while back. It tried to breakout but got sent back from $1.33 (top of the bollinger band) and then proceeded to breakout support below, that's not good action. I have taken it off my radar as I prefer to look for trend breaks or stocks moving with close support, FNSR has neither for me.

[johnathanchill]

    Thanks a lot Aussie Trader I appreciate your help. I have been doing some research on the Bolinger Band. It seems like a great tool in charting. I will have to start paying attention to that. Any other good chart tools you can offer.

Thanks,

[AussieTrader]

Go to stockcharts.com and look under their ChartSchool section for charting, techinal analysis and have a read there it is a good resource for understanding indicators of one type or another.
http://stockcharts.com/education/

[johnathanchill]

Thanks again i will do that....

[dhiraj19]

There are 3 threads running for this stock. I have picked this one.

Please compare 1 week charts of TMTA and NVAX when they gapped up... It'll be great if someone could explain this pattern...

Today's chart:

[higherstocks]

Hey dhiraj19, thx for the question I think Technically EliteG could answer your question about the chart better then I can, to me it could be a good short term play.  Fundamentally I like JDSU in this group.  I am not in JDSU at this time because it doesnt move that much for now.  But if your looking for a good play in this group JDSU is a better long term play.  Just my opinion.  Dont know if I answered your question or not but gl on the trade if you go for it.

[fous]

So FNSR. What is it?

Finisar Corporation (FNSR) is a technology leader for fiber optic subsystems and network test and monitoring systems. These products enable high-speed data communications for networking and storage applications over Gigabit Ethernet local area networks (LANs), Fibre Channel storage area networks (SANs), and metropolitan area networks (MANs) Fibre Channel, IP, SAS, SATA and SONET/SDH-based protocols. The Company's headquarters is in Sunnyvale, California, USA. www.Finisar.com.

FNSR is looking great both technically and fundamentally. 3 news releases within the last 10 days that are great, well........ 2 are great and 1 has potential to be FANTASTIC!!



First off they announced that they intend to make the sale of its minority interest in Sensors Unlimited pending the closing of the acquisition of Sensors Unlimited by Goodrich Corporation. For the amount of $60m of wich they'll have a net realized gain of $12m.

Also they released they're financials on the 1st which had revenues up 32% from last year.
Technically this stock rose a hefty 30% ,with large gap, and on heavy volume so there is definate interest in this stock.

DETAILS:

-OPERATING RESULTS-

Total revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 2006 were $81.7 million, up 9% on a sequential basis from $74.9 million in the fourth quarter and 32% from $61.9 million in the first quarter of the prior year. For the fourth consecutive quarter, the Company's revenues set a new all time record. Total revenues from the sale of optical subsystems were $72.4 million in the first quarter, up 12% on a sequential basis from $64.5 million in the fourth quarter and 35% from $53.8 million in the first quarter of the prior year. Sales of network test and monitoring systems were $9.4 million in the first quarter, down 10% on a sequential basis from $10.4 million in the fourth quarter but up 15% from $8.1 million in the first quarter of the prior year.

The Company reported a net loss of $19.1 million, or $0.07 per share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2006, compared to a net loss of $37.8 million, or $0.15 per share, in the fourth quarter and a net loss of $22.1 million, or $0.10 per share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2005. The Company's gross profit for the first quarter was $15.3 million, or 21.1% of total revenues, compared to 15.8% in the fourth quarter and 19.7% in the first quarter of 2005.

The Company's operating results include a number of non-cash and cash charges, principally related to acquisitions, restructuring activities and financing transactions. For the first quarter of fiscal 2006, these items totaled $10.6 million and included, among other items, amortization of acquired developed technology of $5.7 million associated with a number of previous acquisitions, the payment of $1.3 million primarily representing incentive payments to employees of Infineon Technologies A.G. and I-TECH Corporation associated with the transfer of know-how and manufacturing processes related to various recently acquired product lines, and $1.1 million related to the amortization of discount on convertible notes issued in 2001 and 2003. Also included in the current quarter is a non-cash tax provision of $.6 million resulting from timing differences associated with the amortization of goodwill for tax reporting purposes which is not amortized for financial reporting purposes.

The Company excludes these and certain other items for the purpose of tracking its performance on a non-GAAP basis. Non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP net income (loss), as reported by the Company, give an indication of the Company's baseline performance before gains, losses or other charges that are considered by management to be outside of our core operating results. The Company's non-GAAP net loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2006 was $8.5 million, or $.03 per share, compared to $12.5 million, or $.05 per share, in the fourth quarter and $14.3 million, or $.06 per share, in the first quarter of the prior year. On a non-GAAP basis, gross profit was $22.6 million, or 27.6% of total revenues, compared to 25.5% in the fourth quarter and 26.1% in the first quarter of the prior year.

"Our progress at the top line this quarter was boosted by having a full quarter of results from the acquisition of the transceiver and transponder product lines of Infineon Technologies A.G.," said Jerry Rawls, Finisar's President and CEO. "Those products accounted for about 40% of our sequential growth in optics revenues. The overall growth in optics revenues more than offset some weakness in our test and monitoring business, which we restructured during the quarter to enhance profitability. We believe that our continuing execution at the top line combined with a number of cost reduction initiatives that are taking place over the next two quarters should put us in a position to achieve our goal of returning to profitability in the near future and becoming profitable on a non-GAAP basis in the third quarter of the current fiscal year. In addition, we were EBITDA positive on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter and our cash balances remained above $100 million."


And for the $$potential$$ news
Finisar is stating that Agilent technologies has infringed on one of their patents. Finisar is looking to be compensated for loss of sales due to Agilent selling the same technology. Just how much are they claiming they lost in sales? A whopping 1.1 Billion (at least) says Finisar.

Heres a snippet of the article direct from Marketwatch.com
The lawsuit alleges that Agilent refused repeated offers by Finisar to license its digital diagnostics technology. Finisar is seeking a substantial award of damages for lost profits on sales of at least $1.1 billion, a trebling of those damages for willful patent infringement, and injunctive relief to prevent further manufacture, marketing and sale of Agilent transceiver products which incorporate Finisar technology.

"Finisar scientists invented digital diagnostics technology to solve the reliability concerns of the storage industry. Since then, the technology has become standard in the datacom and telecom fields as well. It is an extremely valuable asset of our Company that we have actively sought to license to industry players. Agilent has ignored our requests to engage in a meaningful dialogue. We are determined to protect our investment," said Jerry Rawls, Finisar's President and CEO.

I don't know how much money for damages they can recieve from Agilent, if any, but maybe  they'll recieve a u know what load if they have a legitamate case. If say they recieved 31% of their lost sales that would be $350m = FNSR market cap =$350m. Good stuff indeed i must say. As well Finisar will gain more of the Market share of Fiber optics with Agilent not selling their technology anymore which means more revenue, which means more money, which means...................more money....... AND GROWTH=HIGHER STOCK PRICES=MONEY IN MY POCKET wow im tired its 3:30AM maybe i should go to bed.

BUT WAIT WHAT ABOUT TA???
ok ok here it is............


ok first of all, FNSR broke out of a decsending trendline on the release of its financials on heavy volume which is a good thing. We like breakouts of decending trendlines. Another thing we like are Bullish Divergences and FNSR has one thats been forming since late 2003! Price action is creeping up on the second longer term decsending trendline which would be and even stronger bullish indicator. I leave you with 3 charts of my analysis. Hope im of any help to anyone as everyone in this community has been a huge help to me. I thank all of you for that.

And as for making an open position i might just have to do so Monday morning. My charts will show my justification for making an entry on monday. Still debating a stop loss point.


I'll call this stock a 3 step.

step 1: break first decending trendline(complete)

step 2: break 2nd decending trendline started in late 03' along with the divergence. At this point is where i would think that the Divergence would be ran over by a heard of angry bulls.(pending)

step 3: Grab a beer(maybe even a Bravo Slammer ), relax, watch your equity grow!(pending)

:::that says building momentum in green in chart1::::sorry

[fous]

Hey forgot to show the Bullish Divergence of the Macd- histogram. Here it is!

Ok its 4:16AM now i really should go to bed. Gnight everyone. I'd like to hear opinions from others on this pick as well. Gnight everyone.

as always, best of luck

-fousc

[eliteG]

great all around analysis fousc, really sharp charts (APPLAUD)

I agree that this latest action by the stock is very bullish and a cross of 1.27ish with some volume may be a signal to get in.

Great Stuff 

[eliteG]

I highly recommend you guys check out this thread for FNSR:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2635.new#new

fousc did a great job!

[dhiraj19]

Thanks guys... I was looking for such a feedback

[ggrewal]

Could  be a profitable play, Insiders brought some stocks too from the open market
   http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FNSR